According to this article, the Swans were only just pipped by St.Kilda in having the the toughest 2018 draw when examined retrospectively. It gives further credence to the club making the top 8 when all things considered.
Retrospective look at analysing the 2018 draw.
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Largely agrees with this analysis:
2018 Strength of Schedule: A Post-Season Review
Which notes "As a final observation, it's interesting to note that, of the teams with the eight smallest differences between actual and expected schedule strength, six made the finals." One of the other two being Sydney so yes, doing it harder than the rest! -
We finished 6th in 2017, putting us in the top group for following season draw seeding. That means we should have been drawn to play twice two teams that also finished in the top six, two that finished in the 7-12 range, and one from the bottom six. That was, indeed, how our draw panned out, with the Giants and Cats the two top six finishers, West Coast and Hawthorn the 7-12 range finishers and North the bottom 6 finisher. While the Giants and Cats fell from the top tier to the middle (but very top of the middle), these were replaced by West Coast and Hawthorn who moved to the top tier (pre-finals - but both will remain in the top 6 even if they go out in straight sets). And, of course, North outperformed most people's expectations.
There's no reason to think they won't stick to the same seeding next year. If we lose at the weekend we'll fall into the middle tier, but if we win we'll be again in the top tier. We know we'll play the Giants twice next season and if we lose to them on Saturday, they will finish in the top six. I think that means we won't get another double up game against a top six finishing team. That said, the AFL does seem to love pitching us against Hawthorn twice every year. I wonder why!Comment
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Harder than it was, retrospectively, in 2018?
We finished 6th in 2017, putting us in the top group for following season draw seeding. That means we should have been drawn to play twice two teams that also finished in the top six, two that finished in the 7-12 range, and one from the bottom six. That was, indeed, how our draw panned out, with the Giants and Cats the two top six finishers, West Coast and Hawthorn the 7-12 range finishers and North the bottom 6 finisher. While the Giants and Cats fell from the top tier to the middle (but very top of the middle), these were replaced by West Coast and Hawthorn who moved to the top tier (pre-finals - but both will remain in the top 6 even if they go out in straight sets). And, of course, North outperformed most people's expectations.
There's no reason to think they won't stick to the same seeding next year. If we lose at the weekend we'll fall into the middle tier, but if we win we'll be again in the top tier. We know we'll play the Giants twice next season and if we lose to them on Saturday, they will finish in the top six. I think that means we won't get another double up game against a top six finishing team. That said, the AFL does seem to love pitching us against Hawthorn twice every year. I wonder why!Comment
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