2019 ladder prediction for the swans

[stevoswan]

I am bouyed what the Swans will do in 2019 and feel we will be in the 4 which will surprise the so called pundits. Champion Data is just that, based on stats , not always on reality. I am comfortable with what stock we do have, both experienced and young talent, we have Melican, Mills Naysmith and Reid returning, plus what gems Kinnear picks in the draft. We also have depth witb O'Riordan, Cameron, Dawson as well as hopefully our number 1 2017 draft pick Ling. We have picked up 3 players in the delisted list. So I am looking forward to what we can achieve in 2019

+1

[Melbourne_Blood]

Allir Allir will be in the AA squad next year , that’s my prediction.


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[barry]

This "smashed in the midfield" business was simply because we didn't have a ruckman. Nainsmith Will fix that.

[Bloods05]

This "smashed in the midfield" business was simply because we didn't have a ruckman. Nainsmith Will fix that.

I prefer Naismith, but I'm prepared to give the other bloke a go.

[AB Swannie]

This "smashed in the midfield" business was simply because we didn't have a ruckman. Nainsmith Will fix that.

Across the 23 games of the year, the Swans had a clearance differential of -6. We were not “smashed” in the midfield because of Sinclair. We were beaten in the midfield in general play - we were ranked 14th in opponents contested possession. Ie when a kick came out of our defence to a contest and the ball hit the ground, our midfield struggled to take win that ball and control it. Having Heeney, Mills, and Jones being at more if these contests instead of Papley, Hayward, and Ronke should help.

If you think Naismith is the answer then we are in more trouble than ever before.

[Melbourne_Blood]

Across the 23 games of the year, the Swans had a clearance differential of -6. We were not “smashed” in the midfield because of Sinclair. We were beaten in the midfield in general play - we were ranked 14th in opponents contested possession. Ie when a kick came out of our defence to a contest and the ball hit the ground, our midfield struggled to take win that ball and control it. Having Heeney, Mills, and Jones being at more if these contests instead of Papley, Hayward, and Ronke should help.

If you think Naismith is the answer then we are in more trouble than ever before.

Agree on Naismith. Proven to be s decent tap ruckman but hasn’t shown that he offers anything whatsoever around the ground. Will need to develop the rest of his game if he is to be starting 22. Hopefully Cox can help him with that .


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[chalbilto]

I agree on Naismith for I felt, even though Sinclair tried his hardest, gave his best and was very, very honest in his approach, last season we seemed to be on the backfoot in the ruck duels. Hopefully Naismith comes back 100%+ and Sinclair can be utilized as another forward option backing up as a relief ruckman.

[Beerman]

I think the benefit of Naismith is more that he frees up Sinclair to play forward, which we need desperately when Reid is injured (ie. most of the time).

I think the Swans have problems - our list is ok without being that great. Given how long we have been finishing close to the top of the ladder, this isn't surprising. Geelong and Hawthorn are going through much the same thing, for the same reasons. We have got a bit lucky with Heeney and Mills, but it just isn't enough (particularly when one of them is injured all year).

While it's fun to get excited about players like Ronke, I think we need to be realistic. He had some good moments, but there were quite a few games where he seemed to contribute very little. He's young, but I'm not convinced that he contributed that much more than someone like Rohan. Perhaps the Buchanan comparison is apt - Buchanan was close to best on ground in 2005 GF, and was not playing seniors a couple of years later at age 26-7.

Champion Data is not the only one who doesn't rate us. The squiggle has us finishing 16th, although I'm not sure that even its author really believes it. Here's my grading chart for 2019.

1-4 Outstanding. Greatly exceeds expectations.
5-8 Good. Keep up the good work.
9-11 Satisfactory. Room for improvement
12-18 Disappointing. Must work harder.

https://twitter.com/SquiggleAFL/status/1063245199428603904

[MattW]

I find it difficult to predict how we'll go next year with any confidence.

Melican and Reid are important players, structurally, and their return should improve us. I'm more positive about Naismith than some, recalling how his tap work contributed to our run to the GF in 2016.

Having said that, I think our year will depend on the development of Heeney, Mills, Jones, and Florent. I think those guys, all first round picks, need to start making significant contributions in the midfield. Heeney took another step last year, but needs to develop again to near Parker levels.

The new recruits are smart signings on paper, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if they make a substantive contribution.

[barry]

West coast get back gaff and natanui. Going to be hard to beat that team.

[707]

Been mulling over the bottom end of the 2019 ladder, Carlton and Gold Coast had really bad injury lists this season and with a healthy list it would be expected both may climb off the bottom.

I know, many will say I'm being optimistic about Gold Coast but they finally have state of the art off field facilities, stable administration, coaching staff starting with a clean sheet at last, cleared out all the malcontents and got a 2019 draw that doesn't kill them like last years Commonwealth Games schedule did.

Carlton whilst awful this year have far too much talent to languish on the bottom another year, it must come together in 2019.

So who is the likely spooner? Could it be St.Kilda? I'm hoping so as we are holding their second rounder and events of this year's draft showed that the first pick in the second round is highly sought after by other clubs so you can get well overs in pick trading or it can be used to great advantage by the club holding it as you have overnight to thoroughly reassess what players are still on the draft board and what your drafting strategy will be for day 2.

[Markwebbos]

TAB have released their projected wins for every side in 2019. They’ve only given us 11.5 wins.

Category: | Herald Sun

SYDNEY
TAB Over/Under: 11.5

GAMES WON IN 2018 — 14

Gilbert Gardiner says: UNDER

It feels like every year we predict the demise of the Swans and end up with eggs on our collective faces but with Buddy Franklin and Josh Kennedy a year older and Hannebery out, it spells a tough campaign on the horizon. The Swans had the worst percentage of any team in the top eight last season … vulnerable.

Chris Cavanagh says: UNDER

Tipping the Swans to miss finals for the first time since 2009. Dan Hannebery gone and a host of ageing players whose best football is behind them.

Liam Twomey says: OVER

There were some serious warning signs for the Swans at the end of last season. From 10-3 they went 4-6 and limped into finals before getting belted by the Giants. But I’m not ready to give up on the Bloods culture yet. Win or lose, you’ve got to be on the over.

[dimelb]

Gardiner and Cavanagh have not stopped to consider that we are now a better team without Hanners, who was a great player but had hit a wall, and I wish him well but wouldn't count on it.

I also wonder whether they took into account that we have Menzel and a fit Reid who will make a marked difference about our forward play. For mine, Twomey makes more sense.

[CureTheSane]

and a fit Reid

Would be a brave assumption

[KSAS]

Cavanagh saying we have a "host of ageing players whose best football is behind them", which I assume he is referring to Buddy, Kennedy, McVeigh, Jack & Grundy. That is not very many ageing players. Out of those only Buddy & Kennedy we are really reliant upon from week to week (McVeigh to a lesser extent) and they're still playing good footy.

The media are displaying are half empty glass view of our list rather than a half full one which I can understand to an extent, but there is so much potential with the young brigade whom we've blooded over the last few years plus Heeney, Mills & Jones who are set to hit their straps in the midfield. Plus of course the flow on effects of a returning Reid and Naismith has to the team structure coupled with the recruiting of Menzel, Thurlow & Clarke. I'm optimistic & really looking foward to next season.