Fixture and the run home - dare to dream?

[Vonsteinman]

After noticing that we play the Bombers at the MCG next week, I realised I could barely recall playing them let alone beating them there. Checked and confirmed that as far back as 1980, we hadnt.

According to Joshua Kay on Twitter, we haven’t beaten them at the ‘G since Bob Pratt was a young boy...

[Beerman]

Realistically, 13-14, according to current projections from the stats people. Here's one, with animation:

Tony Corke on Twitter: "Profile of Possible Ladder Finishes

Version 3 - now with team-specific y-axes and annotations for teams' finals probabilities… https://t.co/t5bJSFiWCc"

But dare to dream, sure!

A little pessimistic, I think. The MOS model predicts us to finish 11th or 12th, pretty much equal with St Kilda, with a 50% chance to be 13th or lower. Most models seem to have us about 11th or 12th I think - the aggregate of models on squiggle.com.au is 56% of 12th or higher. Incidentally, MOS is winning the models tipping comp on squiggle.com.au, but is only middle of the pack on bits*, so there is that. The current bits leader, FMI, has us at nearly 70% chance to finish 11th or 12th, so maybe that super-high draft pick is out of our reach. :cheer:


* tipping is an "all or nothing" game, that has a large degree of luck in it. bits is a way of measuring how right or wrong you were, based on the confidence of your tip. Examples are:

- In a close game eg. Adelaide v Port next week, you might say "It's a 50/50 game, but I'm going to tip Port by 3 points". Adelaide win by 1 point. You get 0 score for your tips, which makes you look clueless, but you were actually right - it was a 50/50 game and you missed scoring your tip largely due to luck (or a dodgy score review ). So you get a good score in bits.

- Let's say you predicted Brisbane vs St Kilda to be a 50/50 game, so you tossed a coin and tipped Brisbane by 3 points. You get 1 point for your tip, but you weren't actually that right, since you won based on the toss of a coin when in reality St Kilda got smashed by 9 goals. So you don't get many bits.

[Beerman]

PS. I would be happy with 11th or 12th. Looking back at our last couple of non-finals finishes, since 2001 they were:

2009 - 12th
2002 - 11th

[bloodspirit]

I thought this weekend's results were mixed for us. In the immediate term, barring the Essendon-GWS game, they were helpful for us. Especially Freo and Port losing, as I identified them as having the loosest grip on finals spots. However the overall vibe of upsets and any team being able to win on a given day does make our long shot longer and me less willing to start dreaming this season.

[barry]

I think if we beat the bombers this week, we are well and truely in the hunt for a finals spot.

Our big concern is now our ruck situation which could kill off the sort of run we would need to snatch a finals spot.
Nainsmith is a month away, plus match practice.
Sincalir could be a shoulder reconsturction away since it popped out so easily the 2nd time.
Grassy Knoll is an un-known but our finals hopes could rest on his shoulders.

[Captain]

I think if we beat the bombers this week, we are well and truely in the hunt for a finals spot.

Our big concern is now our ruck situation which could kill off the sort of run we would need to snatch a finals spot.
Nainsmith is a month away, plus match practice.
Sincalir could be a shoulder reconsturction away since it popped out so easily the 2nd time.
Grassy Knoll is an un-known but our finals hopes could rest on his shoulders.

Agree totally with this.

If we beat the Bombers then we would back ourselves in to win Blues, Dockers, Port, Dees and Saints. Port's the toughest one but even losing that I would still give us a chance against the Cats at the SCG.