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Getting on the front foot with this thread early this season, after a late start last season. Feeling fired up after our draft. Not confident we'll play finals in 2020 but really excited and positive about our list.
Players
The players who will fall out of contract at the end of 2020 are:
Amartey
Clarke
Foot
Fox
Hewett
Kennedy
Knoll
Ling
Maibaum
McLean
Melican
Reynolds
Ronke
Rowles
Stoddart
Thurlow
Wicks
but, according to his management (I believe them), not Bell.
I'm not sure about Brand and Gray. Does anybody know? Here's a link to the announcement of their signing - it doesn't say: Swans secure delisted free agents - sydneyswans.com.au.
Retirements
There's nobody on the list I can really see reaching retirement this year. Surely not JPK yet? His form has been tailing away but he's still a beast and I don't think we are ready yet for life without him. Plus we have a young list and need some wise, seasoned leaders. Will be interesting if he's not re-signed halfway through the season though. Hopefully the club will extend him on a year to year basis to maximise flexibility (like we did with Macca at the end, although he was older), or is that too disrespectful to a club captain? That said, chances are he may not be club captain after this season even assuming his playing contract is extended.
Re-signings
The priority re-signing will be George Hewett, but we shouldn't have too much trouble there. I wouldn't be surprised to see us announce his next contract before the season begins. Say 3 more years. While some of the new talent (e.g. Rowbottom) look more exciting, I still think Hewett is underrated (even after finishing 2nd in this years B&F). He's super tough, disciplined, hard-working, very reliable kick on both sides of his body and a good ball user who has the ability to go forward and kick goals. He gets overlooked a bit because he's a bit slow and he's an unassuming, quiet achiever. I'm a huge fan. I always feel happy when the ball is in his hands.
JPK I expect will be extended but not sure if it will be for a season at a time after we see how his form is going or a more generous two year extension. All the others will very much depend on how their seasons go.
I can't see us re-signing Thurlow, I reckon he'll be out the door. Most likely the same for Clarke if he doesn't show a fair bit this year. Clarke's main asset is his endurance and he has been overtaken in that department (hello Dawso!) and has new competition in players like Stephens and Warner who I think may overtake him in a more figurative and wholistic sense if not in time trials as well.
For all the rest it's going to be hot competition for spots. We will need to clear space on our list next off season for the new draftees and at least half a dozen of these players on our list will be cut. Wicks and Fox will be under the pump. Wicks may have a smidge more breathing space because he can have one more year as a Cat B rookie (is that right? It will be his third year. Can you remain a cat B rookie for a third year?) If I'm betting, I don't like their chances. Melican has the inside run but can't afford to stuff up with the recruitment of Brand and retention of Maibaum turning the dial up a bit for him. Ronke is in a similar position: has a spot to lose but is under pressure from Taylor, Gray, maybe Wicks.
If Brand and Gray's contracts expire this year then they will also be under pressure to justify their retention. Particularly in Gray's case, I'd be slightly surprised if he left SA for only a one year contract. So I'm guessing Gray has a two year deal. Might only be one year for Brand because he was de-listed without being offered another deal (as Gray was).
Ling is another who we will be wanting to succeed and who has a spot to lose. If he can get on the park and start showing his ability, he's a great chance of being retained. But if he gets injured again... might be a different story.
Great to see how virtually all of our best talent is signed up and no need to worry about them.
Who do we bring in?
Draft
Well, at this point it seems we will clearly be drafting Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden, both highly rated young prospects. Both midfielders who are on the small side. There is a real chance they can both go in the first round (so we will need to be ready to pay for them) but I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of them slide out further, which often happens with all but the most brilliant of smaller midfielders (Rowell would be one of those notable exceptions).
Do we look to copy GWS strategy this year and get a pick ahead of the bids for Campbell and Gulden and risk going into deficit for the 2021 draft? I reckon we should! By 2021 we will hopefully be climbing up the ladder and falling down the draft boards and won't be so much in need of draft talent.
Hopefully some chance we can get another Academy player in the door, perhaps as a Cat B rookie.
Otherwise, it's hard to tell what kind of players we will need in a year's time plus we don't know what picks we will have to work with. I'm a bit fuzzy about which picks we have left for next season. I think we have a pick of Adelaide's and another of Brisbane's or something and have traded out our own 3rd and 4th rounders? At some stage afl.com.au will put out a list and I'll add it to this thread.
Free agency
The big name, who will be speculated about all year, will be Joe Daniher. Will he, won't he? Will we, won't we? I'm hoping we, and he, will - provided he gets his body back together and starts showing some form. He's a fabulous talent and the time will be right in terms of Buddy getting towards the end of his career with only two more years of his mega-salary to accommodate plus the fact that he will be a free agent and should be much cheaper to get (even if we have to trade for him). While it seems our salary cap won't be easy to manage, we won't have had to pay him in 2020 and it should be easier to fit JD in in another year's time than it was this year (one less year of overlapping with Buddy). On the other hand, all our other young talent will be getting more experienced and presumably more expensive to retain. We need another KPF at some stage and JD has an excitement factor and likeability that will spin the turnstiles if plays near his best. Just the kind of player the Swans seem to love.
I'm not sure who else will be on the market but I doubt we'll be targetting any other big names.
Trade
Likewise, we seem to have decided to cover our needs by playing to our strengths and drafting and developing the players we want, so I don't think we are likely to make any big splash in the trade period.
The two possible positions where we might look for someone seem to be an inside mid or a ruck. However, we seem to believe in our list in terms of our inside mids (else we would have done more about getting some in the two past trade and draft seasons) so I think we will look to Florent, Heeney, Rowbottom, Hewett, maybe Mills, maybe Warner, maybe Bell, Stephens in time etc. etc. to cover our inside midfield and contested possession needs.
The ruck situation is a bit more opaque. We didn't draft any new rucks to replace the outgoing Cameron. And this is a position where mature age talent is often favoured (although KB on record just days ago saying he doesn't agree that you don't draft rucks, as some say). This is also a position where there is a bit of a trade merry-go-round of second tier and young, developing rucks and so would be easy to see us joining in the fun if our ruck brigade aren't doing enough to give us a high level of confidence. Especially given Horse's penchant for a packed stable of rucks.
The other side of the trade scenario is who might go out? The standout candidate is Papley. We know that this year he wanted to leave. Along with whatever personal reasons he has, it's likely that part of the reason for that is that we have contracted him for less than he is now worth. So, most likely, he will still have the same incentive to leave next year. I don't think it's a coincidence that we have recruited depth in his position: Gray and Lewy Taylor are both similar players - small forwards who can go through the midfield a bit, with a similar degree of experience. That said, I don't think it's a given we will trade him, even if he still wants to go. The question will be, what's in it for us? Gray and Taylor are just insurance. Assuming he keeps playing well, I hope we keep keeping him and, that if we do sell him, we only do so for a high price. If Carlton were willing to give pick 9 for Liam Henry I think the same can be justified for Papley. Henry may have a higher ceiling but Papley is a known quantity whereas Henry is just potential at the time of drafting. Yet Carlton didn't seem willing pay pick 9 for Papley. To be fair, we don't know what they would have offered if we were actually willing to trade him, since that scenario never arose.
I can't see us wanting to trade out anyone else with trade currency (and typically you don't get full value when there's a trade anyway - unless you're dealing with Gold Coast or selling Tim Kelly). Of course anything can happen over the course of a year.
Possibly there could be a targetted inbound trade or two, but our needs seem less stark now as a next generation of mids are developing, and I can't predict who or what kind of players they might be (apart from maybe a ruck).
What about coaches and other staff?
My feeling is that we will have no great need to change anything up unless we have a bad year. We have found a place for Macca without needing to send anyone out the door. We have achieved change and freshness by mixing up the coaches roles rather than changing the personnel. The question will be: will some other club come calling for Stevie J or Dean Cox? That would seem to me to be the most likely impetus for a shake up of the coaches. Wouldn't surprise me to see another club target them. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it.
The bigger story is: could Carlton poach Kinnear Beatson, as has been rumoured? Time will tell. Let's hope not. But, if we do lose Beatson, at least Simon Dalrymple seems a safe pair of hands. Even still, we would then need to recruit at least one person to replace him. Beatson's value to the club is hard to overstate. Not only is he one of the best in the business, who has been with us a long time, carrying significant corporate memory, but he also he does the job of more than one at other clubs. If he is going, I trust the club to be well prepared and already advanced in their work to cover his loss as best we can manage.
The other high profile positions are the CEO and Head of Football, Harley and Charlie. I know they come in for a bit of stick on RWO but I can't see anything to indicate they are doing a bad job. Tom Harley in particular seems to be doing ok as far as I am concerned. Too soon to say for Charlie Gardiner. But I think we will stick with them for the time being and continue the kind of smooth, well-oiled operation we are known for.
Other important positions like doctors, physios and fitness staff are a bit beyond my ken - but if anyone has any news or views, please share.
That's my wrap to kick off the new season's thread. Over to you. And happy new season!
Players
The players who will fall out of contract at the end of 2020 are:
Amartey
Clarke
Foot
Fox
Hewett
Kennedy
Knoll
Ling
Maibaum
McLean
Melican
Reynolds
Ronke
Rowles
Stoddart
Thurlow
Wicks
but, according to his management (I believe them), not Bell.
I'm not sure about Brand and Gray. Does anybody know? Here's a link to the announcement of their signing - it doesn't say: Swans secure delisted free agents - sydneyswans.com.au.
Retirements
There's nobody on the list I can really see reaching retirement this year. Surely not JPK yet? His form has been tailing away but he's still a beast and I don't think we are ready yet for life without him. Plus we have a young list and need some wise, seasoned leaders. Will be interesting if he's not re-signed halfway through the season though. Hopefully the club will extend him on a year to year basis to maximise flexibility (like we did with Macca at the end, although he was older), or is that too disrespectful to a club captain? That said, chances are he may not be club captain after this season even assuming his playing contract is extended.
Re-signings
The priority re-signing will be George Hewett, but we shouldn't have too much trouble there. I wouldn't be surprised to see us announce his next contract before the season begins. Say 3 more years. While some of the new talent (e.g. Rowbottom) look more exciting, I still think Hewett is underrated (even after finishing 2nd in this years B&F). He's super tough, disciplined, hard-working, very reliable kick on both sides of his body and a good ball user who has the ability to go forward and kick goals. He gets overlooked a bit because he's a bit slow and he's an unassuming, quiet achiever. I'm a huge fan. I always feel happy when the ball is in his hands.
JPK I expect will be extended but not sure if it will be for a season at a time after we see how his form is going or a more generous two year extension. All the others will very much depend on how their seasons go.
I can't see us re-signing Thurlow, I reckon he'll be out the door. Most likely the same for Clarke if he doesn't show a fair bit this year. Clarke's main asset is his endurance and he has been overtaken in that department (hello Dawso!) and has new competition in players like Stephens and Warner who I think may overtake him in a more figurative and wholistic sense if not in time trials as well.
For all the rest it's going to be hot competition for spots. We will need to clear space on our list next off season for the new draftees and at least half a dozen of these players on our list will be cut. Wicks and Fox will be under the pump. Wicks may have a smidge more breathing space because he can have one more year as a Cat B rookie (is that right? It will be his third year. Can you remain a cat B rookie for a third year?) If I'm betting, I don't like their chances. Melican has the inside run but can't afford to stuff up with the recruitment of Brand and retention of Maibaum turning the dial up a bit for him. Ronke is in a similar position: has a spot to lose but is under pressure from Taylor, Gray, maybe Wicks.
If Brand and Gray's contracts expire this year then they will also be under pressure to justify their retention. Particularly in Gray's case, I'd be slightly surprised if he left SA for only a one year contract. So I'm guessing Gray has a two year deal. Might only be one year for Brand because he was de-listed without being offered another deal (as Gray was).
Ling is another who we will be wanting to succeed and who has a spot to lose. If he can get on the park and start showing his ability, he's a great chance of being retained. But if he gets injured again... might be a different story.
Great to see how virtually all of our best talent is signed up and no need to worry about them.
Who do we bring in?
Draft
Well, at this point it seems we will clearly be drafting Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden, both highly rated young prospects. Both midfielders who are on the small side. There is a real chance they can both go in the first round (so we will need to be ready to pay for them) but I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of them slide out further, which often happens with all but the most brilliant of smaller midfielders (Rowell would be one of those notable exceptions).
Do we look to copy GWS strategy this year and get a pick ahead of the bids for Campbell and Gulden and risk going into deficit for the 2021 draft? I reckon we should! By 2021 we will hopefully be climbing up the ladder and falling down the draft boards and won't be so much in need of draft talent.
Hopefully some chance we can get another Academy player in the door, perhaps as a Cat B rookie.
Otherwise, it's hard to tell what kind of players we will need in a year's time plus we don't know what picks we will have to work with. I'm a bit fuzzy about which picks we have left for next season. I think we have a pick of Adelaide's and another of Brisbane's or something and have traded out our own 3rd and 4th rounders? At some stage afl.com.au will put out a list and I'll add it to this thread.
Free agency
The big name, who will be speculated about all year, will be Joe Daniher. Will he, won't he? Will we, won't we? I'm hoping we, and he, will - provided he gets his body back together and starts showing some form. He's a fabulous talent and the time will be right in terms of Buddy getting towards the end of his career with only two more years of his mega-salary to accommodate plus the fact that he will be a free agent and should be much cheaper to get (even if we have to trade for him). While it seems our salary cap won't be easy to manage, we won't have had to pay him in 2020 and it should be easier to fit JD in in another year's time than it was this year (one less year of overlapping with Buddy). On the other hand, all our other young talent will be getting more experienced and presumably more expensive to retain. We need another KPF at some stage and JD has an excitement factor and likeability that will spin the turnstiles if plays near his best. Just the kind of player the Swans seem to love.
I'm not sure who else will be on the market but I doubt we'll be targetting any other big names.
Trade
Likewise, we seem to have decided to cover our needs by playing to our strengths and drafting and developing the players we want, so I don't think we are likely to make any big splash in the trade period.
The two possible positions where we might look for someone seem to be an inside mid or a ruck. However, we seem to believe in our list in terms of our inside mids (else we would have done more about getting some in the two past trade and draft seasons) so I think we will look to Florent, Heeney, Rowbottom, Hewett, maybe Mills, maybe Warner, maybe Bell, Stephens in time etc. etc. to cover our inside midfield and contested possession needs.
The ruck situation is a bit more opaque. We didn't draft any new rucks to replace the outgoing Cameron. And this is a position where mature age talent is often favoured (although KB on record just days ago saying he doesn't agree that you don't draft rucks, as some say). This is also a position where there is a bit of a trade merry-go-round of second tier and young, developing rucks and so would be easy to see us joining in the fun if our ruck brigade aren't doing enough to give us a high level of confidence. Especially given Horse's penchant for a packed stable of rucks.
The other side of the trade scenario is who might go out? The standout candidate is Papley. We know that this year he wanted to leave. Along with whatever personal reasons he has, it's likely that part of the reason for that is that we have contracted him for less than he is now worth. So, most likely, he will still have the same incentive to leave next year. I don't think it's a coincidence that we have recruited depth in his position: Gray and Lewy Taylor are both similar players - small forwards who can go through the midfield a bit, with a similar degree of experience. That said, I don't think it's a given we will trade him, even if he still wants to go. The question will be, what's in it for us? Gray and Taylor are just insurance. Assuming he keeps playing well, I hope we keep keeping him and, that if we do sell him, we only do so for a high price. If Carlton were willing to give pick 9 for Liam Henry I think the same can be justified for Papley. Henry may have a higher ceiling but Papley is a known quantity whereas Henry is just potential at the time of drafting. Yet Carlton didn't seem willing pay pick 9 for Papley. To be fair, we don't know what they would have offered if we were actually willing to trade him, since that scenario never arose.
I can't see us wanting to trade out anyone else with trade currency (and typically you don't get full value when there's a trade anyway - unless you're dealing with Gold Coast or selling Tim Kelly). Of course anything can happen over the course of a year.
Possibly there could be a targetted inbound trade or two, but our needs seem less stark now as a next generation of mids are developing, and I can't predict who or what kind of players they might be (apart from maybe a ruck).
What about coaches and other staff?
My feeling is that we will have no great need to change anything up unless we have a bad year. We have found a place for Macca without needing to send anyone out the door. We have achieved change and freshness by mixing up the coaches roles rather than changing the personnel. The question will be: will some other club come calling for Stevie J or Dean Cox? That would seem to me to be the most likely impetus for a shake up of the coaches. Wouldn't surprise me to see another club target them. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it.
The bigger story is: could Carlton poach Kinnear Beatson, as has been rumoured? Time will tell. Let's hope not. But, if we do lose Beatson, at least Simon Dalrymple seems a safe pair of hands. Even still, we would then need to recruit at least one person to replace him. Beatson's value to the club is hard to overstate. Not only is he one of the best in the business, who has been with us a long time, carrying significant corporate memory, but he also he does the job of more than one at other clubs. If he is going, I trust the club to be well prepared and already advanced in their work to cover his loss as best we can manage.
The other high profile positions are the CEO and Head of Football, Harley and Charlie. I know they come in for a bit of stick on RWO but I can't see anything to indicate they are doing a bad job. Tom Harley in particular seems to be doing ok as far as I am concerned. Too soon to say for Charlie Gardiner. But I think we will stick with them for the time being and continue the kind of smooth, well-oiled operation we are known for.
Other important positions like doctors, physios and fitness staff are a bit beyond my ken - but if anyone has any news or views, please share.
That's my wrap to kick off the new season's thread. Over to you. And happy new season!
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