R17 Vs Lions @ CAZALY'S

[Kafka's Ghost]

Not saying there aren't concerns - have never said that. But I'd suggest you aren't giving some players any reasonable opportunity to actually develop as AFL footballers - but rather making premature judgments on a very limited evidence base. Indeed earlier in the year you wrote off players that haven't even played for the seniors yets - including a first year player.

We've discussed this before - would you have thrown GAJ to the fires because he didn't really show too much for several seasons beyond being a good afl player (far from elite), and never looked like an elite midfielder until his 5th or 6th season? He is one of so many players that have started in a team in one role, and ended up being a superstar somewhere else. I.e. as he built afl experience, he developed his game to fit. Would you have thrown goodesy away, or Kirk away because in the early years when they didn't show so much? Or Jude Bolton?

If a player came in at 100% of his level on day 1 in our game, and that was the peak - then I would understand. But its been shown so many times that so many players only really hit their straps come in the 50-100 game point of their career, some even later than that. That isn't to say we have to ride and hold with every single player - the game doesn't work like that. Players develop their game over time - its not a stagnant thing.


That isn't to say your judgments on any of those players will prove to be wrong. But just enjoy the ride a bit and lets see what they can do, for as a club I think we need to avoid the premature approach of throwing the baby out every 5 minutes with the bathwater and starting again. That's how you become Carlton.

Totally agree with this assessment. I for one have enjoyed seeing the young guys run this year, knowing it was a development year. As with all young teams they’re inconsistent, but with a bit more senior support and another pre-season or two, that will come. McInerney looks elite as a winger, and McCartin and Melican will be our next Reg and Teddy. Forward line still a work in progress, but if Lewy Taylor can rediscover his fitness and form and Hewitt gets back to help out, the midfield is taking shape. Keen to see who is drafted in the top 10 this year. Stephens will be a gun.

[TheBloods]

Not saying there aren't concerns - have never said that. But I'd suggest you aren't giving some players any reasonable opportunity to actually develop as AFL footballers - but rather making premature judgments on a very limited evidence base. Indeed earlier in the year you wrote off players that haven't even played for the seniors yets - including a first year player.

We've discussed this before - would you have thrown GAJ to the fires because he didn't really show too much for several seasons beyond being a good afl player (far from elite), and never looked like an elite midfielder until his 5th or 6th season? He is one of so many players that have started in a team in one role, and ended up being a superstar somewhere else. I.e. as he built afl experience, he developed his game to fit. Would you have thrown goodesy away, or Kirk away because in the early years when they didn't show so much? Or Jude Bolton?

If a player came in at 100% of his level on day 1 in our game, and that was the peak - then I would understand. But its been shown so many times that so many players only really hit their straps come in the 50-100 game point of their career, some even later than that. That isn't to say we have to ride and hold with every single player - the game doesn't work like that. Players develop their game over time - its not a stagnant thing.

That isn't to say your judgments on any of those players will prove to be wrong. But just enjoy the ride a bit and lets see what they can do, for as a club I think we need to avoid the premature approach of throwing the baby out every 5 minutes with the bathwater and starting again. That's how you become Carlton.

There is a difference between reserving excitement over our youth and actively not enjoying the ride. I enjoy watching these young fellas have a crack and take the game on against players who are bigger, stronger and wiser. I am just unconvinced that a lot of them will forge any legitimate career in the long term. After all, we are in a developing year, so as much as it's fine and dandy to enjoy what the youth show every week, it all has to be in the context of how they'll fit in the future.

Finals have a way of blowing up team's plans. A player could excel all year but if they're exposed badly in finals matches, coaches will often re-work them into a different role that can sometimes leave the player redundant. So don't mistake those lingering, long-term doubts with me not enjoying watching them give it a go every week. They're two separate cases.

It gives me solace that there are at least a few who will, at worst, be good 200-game players. McCartin (especially McCartin), Dawson, Paddlebum, Mills and Papley. Their best could be anything. I hope more will put their hand up in the next year or so, but I suspect anyone that does will come from the draft, so are not yet on the list... (Campbell, Gulden, McDonald)

[Markwebbos]

There is a difference between reserving excitement over our youth and actively not enjoying the ride. I enjoy watching these young fellas have a crack and take the game on against players who are bigger, stronger and wiser. I am just unconvinced that a lot of them will forge any legitimate career in the long term. After all, we are in a developing year, so as much as it's fine and dandy to enjoy what the youth show every week, it all has to be in the context of how they'll fit in the future.

Finals have a way of blowing up team's plans. A player could excel all year but if they're exposed badly in finals matches, coaches will often re-work them into a different role that can sometimes leave the player redundant. So don't mistake those lingering, long-term doubts with me not enjoying watching them give it a go every week. They're two separate cases.

It gives me solace that there are at least a few who will, at worst, be good 200-game players. McCartin (especially McCartin), Dawson, Paddlebum, Mills and Papley. Their best could be anything. I hope more will put their hand up in the next year or so, but I suspect anyone that does will come from the draft, so are not yet on the list... (Campbell, Gulden, McDonald)

I like how you have us picking up McDonald. He sounds like a great prospect, but reckon he goes top 3 before us. I heard him on Road to the Draft explaining how he developed as a midfielder and then had a growth spurt.

Do hope we draft a genuine ruck prospect rather than pick up a long-shot in the rookie draft (if there even is a rookie draft). I do like the sound of Henry Walsh (B-o-S). Thilthorpe for some reason sounds like he's not quite a forward and not quite a ruck. I'm sure I'll be proved wrong about that.

[Blood Fever]

There is a difference between reserving excitement over our youth and actively not enjoying the ride. I enjoy watching these young fellas have a crack and take the game on against players who are bigger, stronger and wiser. I am just unconvinced that a lot of them will forge any legitimate career in the long term. After all, we are in a developing year, so as much as it's fine and dandy to enjoy what the youth show every week, it all has to be in the context of how they'll fit in the future.

Finals have a way of blowing up team's plans. A player could excel all year but if they're exposed badly in finals matches, coaches will often re-work them into a different role that can sometimes leave the player redundant. So don't mistake those lingering, long-term doubts with me not enjoying watching them give it a go every week. They're two separate cases.

It gives me solace that there are at least a few who will, at worst, be good 200-game players. McCartin (especially McCartin), Dawson, Paddlebum, Mills and Papley. Their best could be anything. I hope more will put their hand up in the next year or so, but I suspect anyone that does will come from the draft, so are not yet on the list... (Campbell, Gulden, McDonald)

With the certainty you display as an analyst, you should apply for a job in list management at a AFL club.

[barry]

I can see "TheBloods" point of view. We dont want to end up like Norf, where for years they crowed about their 'youth' and how it was just a matter of time before they were a powerhouse. Unfortunetly, the youth didnt kick on.

We need to be cautious of our list. Right now the list can only managed 4 or 5 wins for the year, so thats exactly where they are at. We still need substantial improvement just to make finals, and then more improvement to win a flag.

However, its going to be an exciting few years ahead as it looks like we are turning the corner from our downward fall, and its much nicer to be climbing up the ladder with a young list (us), than falling down the ladder with an old list (hawks).

[TheBloods]

With the certainty you display as an analyst, you should apply for a job in list management at a AFL club.

The only certainty is that only 17% of drafted players make it to 100 games, 9% to 150 games, 4% to 200 games, and under 2% to 250 games. Many of those that didn't make it would've at some stage been young kids who showed enormous promise as juniors, or who played some quality games at AFL/VFL level. They just didn't have enough. So it's foolish to expect that every youth who plays a good match is on the right path. The harsh reality is that a lot of them will amount to nothing, including some who played last night.

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I can see "TheBloods" point of view. We dont want to end up like Norf, where for years they crowed about their 'youth' and how it was just a matter of time before they were a powerhouse. Unfortunetly, the youth didnt kick on.

We need to be cautious of our list. Right now the list can only managed 4 or 5 wins for the year, so thats exactly where they are at. We still need substantial improvement just to make finals, and then more improvement to win a flag.

However, its going to be an exciting few years ahead as it looks like we are turning the corner from our downward fall, and its much nicer to be climbing up the ladder with a young list (us), than falling down the ladder with an old list (hawks).

Yes we are certainly heading in the right direction. Learning to win this year while relying less on the usual suspects has been a strength that we might not have gained if we had a full strength team every week. There will be some sorting the wheat from the chaff over the next year or so though so that we avoid the North Melbourne fate you speak of.

[mcs]

The only certainty is that only 17% of drafted players make it to 100 games, 9% to 150 games, 4% to 200 games, and under 2% to 250 games. Many of those that didn't make it would've at some stage been young kids who showed enormous promise as juniors, or who played some quality games at AFL/VFL level. They just didn't have enough. So it's foolish to expect that every youth who plays a good match is on the right path. The harsh reality is that a lot of them will amount to nothing, including some who played last night.

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Yes we are certainly heading in the right direction. Learning to win this year while relying less on the usual suspects has been a strength that we might not have gained if we had a full strength team every week. There will be some sorting the wheat from the chaff over the next year or so though so that we avoid the North Melbourne fate you speak of.

One thing that should help us, at least in the short term to avoid North Melbournitis is that we probably haven't got a whole heap of dough to throw around on established players. Part of their issue was they vastly overrated the quality of their list, and thought they could 'top up' with a few big name trades to make them suddenly into contenders. At least until Buddy goes (maybe with the exception of Daniher on a back ended contract), we aren't going to have a hell of a lot of money to throw around at the trade table.

And yes you are of course right that most players don't make it - but I think we need to give players a reasonable opportunity, if they are good enough to break into the seniors space, to show they are either good enough or not good enough. Premature judgments based on a few games imho don't necessarily allow enough time (with exceptions where players are clearly not up to it) to make a judgment that does take into account the ability of players to develop, improve and change their style and role over time. You do truly risk throwing out the baby with the bathwater if one is too brutal with the chop too quickly.

[wolftone57]

There is a difference between reserving excitement over our youth and actively not enjoying the ride. I enjoy watching these young fellas have a crack and take the game on against players who are bigger, stronger and wiser. I am just unconvinced that a lot of them will forge any legitimate career in the long term. After all, we are in a developing year, so as much as it's fine and dandy to enjoy what the youth show every week, it all has to be in the context of how they'll fit in the future.

Finals have a way of blowing up team's plans. A player could excel all year but if they're exposed badly in finals matches, coaches will often re-work them into a different role that can sometimes leave the player redundant. So don't mistake those lingering, long-term doubts with me not enjoying watching them give it a go every week. They're two separate cases.

It gives me solace that there are at least a few who will, at worst, be good 200-game players. McCartin (especially McCartin), Dawson, Paddlebum, Mills and Papley. Their best could be anything. I hope more will put their hand up in the next year or so, but I suspect anyone that does will come from the draft, so are not yet on the list... (Campbell, Gulden, McDonald)

I think McInnerney is showing plenty and Bell, while a bit up and down, is also showing some resilience. Wicks is looking good and Stephens looks pretty adept at the level.

Some players who are probably not going to continue on the list are:

Reynolds: injury has killed his chance.

Maibaum: Same applies to Jack as to Reynolds

Gray: has not shown enough for an AFL layer from another club to be retained

Knoll: injury is adain the concern for this bloke. He might be retained but even without injury he has a few skills problems that would need to be addressed. His ball drop is downright under 8's. He is good in ruck contests and can take the big mark. But do they take a risk or go to the draft or trade?

E Taylor: after this last incident I don't think the club has a choice. He is so dambed talented. What a waste.

Sinclair: does he retire? That is the question.

Naismith: will he ever come back?

Ronke: injury has made things pretty difficult for Benny and if lists are cut so might he be.

Rowles: has not even featured in dispatches. I would suggest his AFL journey might be coming to a close

Now I want to speculate.

Does Joey go around for another year? I'm not sure he will. He and Ana have a young family and his loss of a few metres of pace would be quite obvious to him. So he may just hang the boots up. Some people are speculating as to a forward role. But that was exactly the reason he left Hawthorn. He wanted to play mids and he was told there was no chance. So does he retire? Probably a thread in that all on it's own.

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[TheBloods]

One thing that should help us, at least in the short term to avoid North Melbournitis is that we probably haven't got a whole heap of dough to throw around on established players. Part of their issue was they vastly overrated the quality of their list, and thought they could 'top up' with a few big name trades to make them suddenly into contenders. At least until Buddy goes (maybe with the exception of Daniher on a back ended contract), we aren't going to have a hell of a lot of money to throw around at the trade table.

And yes you are of course right that most players don't make it - but I think we need to give players a reasonable opportunity, if they are good enough to break into the seniors space, to show they are either good enough or not good enough. Premature judgments based on a few games imho don't necessarily allow enough time (with exceptions where players are clearly not up to it) to make a judgment that does take into account the ability of players to develop, improve and change their style and role over time. You do truly risk throwing out the baby with the bathwater if one is too brutal with the chop too quickly.

Perhaps that is where you and I differ. I would rather start at a realistic, or unreasonably low bar and then be surprised for the better if they achieve over that bar. The fact is not many of these young ones will make it based on overwhelming statistical figures throughout the game's history, so I would rather not latch my expectations onto a handful of developing players whose developments simply won't amount to much. And then if they do, colour me pleasantly surprised.

[Blood Fever]

I think McInnerney is showing plenty and Bell, while a bit up and down, is also showing some resilience. Wicks is looking good and Stephens looks pretty adept at the level.

Some players who are probably not going to continue on the list are:

Reynolds: injury has killed his chance.

Maibaum: Same applies to Jack as to Reynolds

Gray: has not shown enough for an AFL layer from another club to be retained

Knoll: injury is adain the concern for this bloke. He might be retained but even without injury he has a few skills problems that would need to be addressed. His ball drop is downright under 8's. He is good in ruck contests and can take the big mark. But do they take a risk or go to the draft or trade?

E Taylor: after this last incident I don't think the club has a choice. He is so dambed talented. What a waste.

Sinclair: does he retire? That is the question.

Naismith: will he ever come back?

Ronke: injury has made things pretty difficult for Benny and if lists are cut so might he be.

Rowles: has not even featured in dispatches. I would suggest his AFL journey might be coming to a close

Now I want to speculate.

Does Joey go around for another year? I'm not sure he will. He and Ana have a young family and his loss of a few metres of pace would be quite obvious to him. So he may just hang the boots up. Some people are speculating as to a forward role. But that was exactly the reason he left Hawthorn. He wanted to play mids and he was told there was no chance. So does he retire? Probably a thread in that all on it's own.

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Good analysis. Given that Rowbottom is only 19, I would probably give JPK one more year if he wants, especially given his magnificent service. Might be wrong but thought Sinclair had a contract for next year.

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Perhaps that is where you and I differ. I would rather start at a realistic, or unreasonably low bar and then be surprised for the better if they achieve over that bar. The fact is not many of these young ones will make it based on overwhelming statistical figures throughout the game's history, so I would rather not latch my expectations onto a handful of developing players whose developments simply won't amount to much. And then if they do, colour me pleasantly surprised.

Fair enough but your analysis applies to every club and their young players. Gets down to who you bring in and how they are developed. Our track record over 20+ years is pretty good.

[Markwebbos]

It is really hard to judge the trajectory of young talent. Look at Stephenson at the Pies. Exploded in his first year, now struggling. I'm sure he'll come good, but I'm not sure he's going to be as good as some anticipated.

[wolftone57]

Perhaps that is where you and I differ. I would rather start at a realistic, or unreasonably low bar and then be surprised for the better if they achieve over that bar. The fact is not many of these young ones will make it based on overwhelming statistical figures throughout the game's history, so I would rather not latch my expectations onto a handful of developing players whose developments simply won't amount to much. And then if they do, colour me pleasantly surprised.

The problem with those figures, all figures really, as they do not examine the circumstances of a player not making it. Stats that break down the circumstances are better. For instance what percentage did not make it due to long term injury? What percentage due to behavioural difficulties? What percentage retired themselves and decided it wasn't for them? Several that I know of decided their medical career was more important. What percentage walked away due to mental health issues? What percentage walked away due to relationship and relocation?

There are many different reasons players don't continue their AFL journey. Being delisted due to not being quite good enough at the level or not even attaining the standard is just one. Be interesting to see the success rate when all of those factors are considered.

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[TheBloods]

It is really hard to judge the trajectory of young talent. Look at Stephenson at the Pies. Exploded in his first year, now struggling. I'm sure he'll come good, but I'm not sure he's going to be as good as some anticipated.

It's far easier to tell which ones will struggle, as opposed to which ones will do well but what their ceiling will be. Stephenson from the Pies a good example. Won a lot of easy goals and cheapies out the back in 2018. You don't get that in finals, and you don't get that once opposition teams start taking notice of you. He is now predictably struggling because he doesn't have the hardness or the skill under pressure.

It's not difficult at all to tell which players have games that will lend themselves to finals/high intensity matches and which ones won't.

[TheBloods]

Good analysis. Given that Rowbottom is only 19, I would probably give JPK one more year if he wants, especially given his magnificent service. Might be wrong but thought Sinclair had a contract for next year.

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Fair enough but your analysis applies to every club and their young players. Gets down to who you bring in and how they are developed. Our track record over 20+ years is pretty good.

I have never said other clubs are better than we are. I see a lot around the league who look good but I don't have good feelings about long-term. But at least some other clubs have the one junior you know will be elite just by everything they do, and they will hold up in finals - Rowell, B. Smith, Walsh. As of yet, we don't have such a player in our ranks, N.O.B. probably the closest. That can change with one great draft selection though.

[stevoswan]

Perhaps that is where you and I differ. I would rather start at a realistic, or unreasonably low bar and then be surprised for the better if they achieve over that bar. [B]The fact is not many of these young ones will make it based on overwhelming statistical figures throughout the game's history[/B], so I would rather not latch my expectations onto a handful of developing players whose developments simply won't amount to much. And then if they do, colour me pleasantly surprised.

One must remember that a lot of these 'low stats' have come during a weird season unlike any other where games and turnarounds are a lot shorter and players are living in hubs, miles from their normal week to week homes and their usual home base support networks. Add to that our extensive injury list of experienced players and raft of below average recent season trades and a lot of these kids are probably debuting earlier than they normally would and subsequently with a shorter period of club development (from their drafting to their debut). It's a truly exceptional year that I think should be assessed in a different context to how one normally would.

You could counter that it's the same for all the clubs but given our younger than league average squad (virtually the youngest), it's going to effect us more. I agree with you that we need some mature hard bodies to compliment them but given the circumstances of this year, our youngsters have done alright in a development year, possibly getting better development than normal.....having been somewhat fast tracked into the big time.

I think it's a little early to claim that our youngsters 'simply won't amount to much'. I'm confident that our club may well be colouring you pleasantly surprised in the next few seasons.