The Money Kick (AFL360) and other indicators of winning

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  • liz
    Veteran
    Site Admin
    • Jan 2003
    • 16733

    Swans chat The Money Kick (AFL360) and other indicators of winning

    By far the most interesting segment on AFL360 this season (and probably on Fox Footy, the actual matches aside) is a short period on Wednesdays, where David King and Leigh Montagna discuss some of the trends they are seeing in the game.

    This evening Montagna highlighted the importance of what he termed "the money kick" - the kick into the forward 50. In past seasons, the team that took more marks inside 50 than its opponent won the game around 75% of the time. So far in season 2021 that percentage is up over 95%. Only two teams have lost the inside 50 mark count and gone on to win the game.

    In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

    Montagna then went on to highlight the individual players who have the highest strike rate at finding a marking target with their kicks inside 50. The 5th ranked player is Paul Seedsman, who has found a target with 30% of his kicks inside 50. Then come Travis Boak (4th), David Mundy (3rd) and Adam Cerra (2nd). Cerra has found a target with just over 36% of his kicks inside 50.

    And first place? Montagna challenged King, Robbo and Gerald to guess who it might be, but I wasn't surprised in the least when they named him. Errol. What is staggering is that he has found a target with over 47% of his kicks inside 50 so far. That's a pretty wide margin over the 2nd best player by any measure, but startling for a 4 gamer.

    Now we just need him to recalibrate his next most important kick that's gone a bit wonky in the past fortnight.
  • giant
    Veterans List
    • Mar 2005
    • 4731

    #2
    Just saw this on 360 and like you Liz I also guessed who #1 would be. As I've said on here elsewhere, I've never been so happy to see the ball in the hands of a first year player! Surely a matter of time before opposition teams starting tagging him?

    Comment

    • MattW
      Veterans List
      • May 2011
      • 4193

      #3
      Originally posted by liz
      By far the most interesting segment on AFL360 this season (and probably on Fox Footy, the actual matches aside) is a short period on Wednesdays, where David King and Leigh Montagna discuss some of the trends they are seeing in the game.

      This evening Montagna highlighted the importance of what he termed "the money kick" - the kick into the forward 50. In past seasons, the team that took more marks inside 50 than its opponent won the game around 75% of the time. So far in season 2021 that percentage is up over 95%. Only two teams have lost the inside 50 mark count and gone on to win the game.

      In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

      Montagna then went on to highlight the individual players who have the highest strike rate at finding a marking target with their kicks inside 50. The 5th ranked player is Paul Seedsman, who has found a target with 30% of his kicks inside 50. Then come Travis Boak (4th), David Mundy (3rd) and Adam Cerra (2nd). Cerra has found a target with just over 36% of his kicks inside 50.

      And first place? Montagna challenged King, Robbo and Gerald to guess who it might be, but I wasn't surprised in the least when they named him. Errol. What is staggering is that he has found a target with over 47% of his kicks inside 50 so far. That's a pretty wide margin over the 2nd best player by any measure, but startling for a 4 gamer.

      Now we just need him to recalibrate his next most important kick that's gone a bit wonky in the past fortnight.
      Great post!

      Comment

      • Markwebbos
        Veterans List
        • Jul 2016
        • 7186

        #4
        Golden Gulden is an extraordinary kick going inside 50. I’m actually shocked his accuracy is less than 50%. Does that include all the shots for goal he missed against the Bombers?

        He almost always tries to find a target and very rarely misses.

        His kick to Hickey v Richmond was a thing of beauty as was one of his to Buddy last week.

        I know he’s only 4’6” but I am so excited about his potential. Is he favourite in the Rising Star yet?

        And the other clubs let him slip to pick 32!

        Comment

        • i'm-uninformed2
          Reefer Madness
          • Oct 2003
          • 4653

          #5
          Among a lot of things, he's an excellent kick - though that is a cracker of a stat; but the thing that most strikes me about him as a footballer is his high footy IQ.

          Some players just have it. Errol clearly does. Other teams will put more work into him, but he's got the smarts to eventually work it out. I hate to invoke the name here, but very Sam Mitchell like.
          'Delicious' is a fun word to say

          Comment

          • Rod_
            Senior Player
            • Jan 2003
            • 1179

            #6
            Nothing like all media experts picking the game plan to pieces.

            What is clear to me is that the Swans skill and attack has improved. This is exciting!

            All clubs will try to counter and with options we can counter. What Wicks did to the tigers was impressive.

            If any opposition puts to many defenders on one player, I feel we are able to hurt them with the loose player.. Kick to free agent not only Buddy (or Heeney, etc)

            While I typically only look for one game at a time the next month of footy for all clubs is exciting. Some thoughts and concerns

            *Couple of injuries,
            * Last years finalists typically lift from week 4.
            * The fast starters some slide back to the pack about now.

            Definitely a watch this space time and seen who is likely to be serious in September..

            Go Swans

            Comment

            • bloodspirit
              Clubman
              • Apr 2015
              • 4448

              #7
              Just one reason that he's quickly zoomed up to be my second favourite player (behind the great Dane Rampe). He's also the consummate team player. Love Errol!

              Thanks for sharing, liz. (And the tip about that segment on Wednesday evenings.)
              All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

              Comment

              • RogueSwan
                McVeigh for Brownlow
                • Apr 2003
                • 4602

                #8
                AFL 360 about 38 minutes in
                Last edited by RogueSwan; 15 April 2021, 02:55 PM.
                "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

                Comment

                • bloodspirit
                  Clubman
                  • Apr 2015
                  • 4448

                  #9
                  Originally posted by RogueSwan
                  Thanks for that. Made it super-easy to watch.
                  All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

                  Comment

                  • ugg
                    Can you feel it?
                    Site Admin
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 15961

                    #10
                    Originally posted by liz
                    In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

                    MI50 stats are available at https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html

                    Click on the MI column (fourth from the right to sort)

                    Sydney 71
                    Bulldogs 63
                    Fremantle, Port 60
                    Melbourne 57
                    Adelaide, West Coast 51

                    And then on this page you can get the breakdowns per team: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021.html

                    For the lazy:
                    Heeney 11
                    Reid 8
                    Gulden, McDonald 7
                    Franklin, Wicks 6
                    Papley, Parker 4
                    Kennedy, Hickey, McLean 3

                    It's a good spread considering Harry McKay leads with 19 and Heeney is equal 11th in the AFL.
                    Reserves live updates (Twitter)
                    Reserves WIKI -
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                    Comment

                    • DeadlyAkkuret
                      Veterans List
                      • Oct 2006
                      • 4547

                      #11
                      Gulden is just about the most likable Swan, along with Heeney.


                      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                      Comment

                      • The Runner
                        Regular in the Side
                        • May 2017
                        • 718

                        #12
                        He's an elite kicker, including kicking on goal. I think we're seeing his goal kicking take a hit whilst he adjusts to the fitness requirements of the level.

                        Comment

                        • Bexl
                          Regular in the Side
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 817

                          #13
                          [QUOTE=Markwebbos;814713]Golden Gulden is an extraordinary kick going inside 50.

                          Is he favourite in the Rising Star yet?

                          /QUOTE]

                          Opened at $26 into about $3.50 Fav.

                          Comment

                          • Nico
                            Veterans List
                            • Jan 2003
                            • 11328

                            #14
                            Originally posted by giant
                            Just saw this on 360 and like you Liz I also guessed who #1 would be. As I've said on here elsewhere, I've never been so happy to see the ball in the hands of a first year player! Surely a matter of time before opposition teams starting tagging him?
                            That's why the loss of Heeney to an undisciplined act upsets our forward line. How can a team cover Heeney, Gulden, Wicks and Papley. The opposition tries to cover Gulden as our best small forward with their best small backman then up bobs Paps. Heeney takes their best medium back, so now it is easier to cover our forwards. Lets hope GWS gets fixated with Buddy and tries to double or triple team him. Heeney is a huge loss to our team balance.
                            http://www.nostalgiamusic.co.uk/secu...res/srh806.jpg

                            Comment

                            • Mark26
                              Senior Player
                              • Jan 2017
                              • 1535

                              #15
                              Originally posted by DeadlyAkkuret
                              Gulden is just about the most likable Swan, along with Heeney.


                              Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                              Yes, but Thomas Derickx will always have that spesh place in Red and White folklore and hearts alike.

                              Comment

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