Are we now a genuine Premiership threat?

[707]

Getting to finals is a numbers game, you almost certainly need 13 wins to make finals this year so at 5-3 we need to win 8 games out of 14.

It's also up to other teams to displace us from our current position in the eight and almost every week those out of the eight wannabes are playing top teams or each other, keen interest in the draw each week from here.

It's in our own hands and the next five games are very winnable.

Having got us over the line by backing Geelong to beat us, I should have a decent wager on teams like the Saints and Carlton to ensure victory!

[Blood Fever]

Getting to finals is a numbers game, you almost certainly need 13 wins to make finals this year so at 5-3 we need to win 8 games out of 14.

It's also up to other teams to displace us from our current position in the eight and almost every week those out of the eight wannabes are playing top teams or each other, keen interest in the draw each week from here.

It's in our own hands and the next five games are very winnable.

Having got us over the line by backing Geelong to beat us, I should have a decent wager on teams like the Saints and Carlton to ensure victory!

Absolutely. Every little bit helps!

[Ludwig]

No

There's nothing like the power of positive thinking to get you in the right frame of mind for a move up the ladder.

It also makes for a good foundation for navigating one's way through the vicissitudes of life. And so many wonderful adages to help you along:

• Just say "NO"!
• Don't think, Don't do.
• Premiership? Not on my watch.
• I would love to be a winner, but I'm just not up to it.
• My mother once told me that the only thing holding me back in life was that I was just not good enough.
• My wife once told me that the only thing holding me back in life was that I had no class.

I could go on, but I want to go on a bike ride before it gets too hot. It is Thailand, you know.

Ahh. Maybe I'll skip it and just go back to bed.

[bloodspirit]

I definitely think we should, and will, be aiming for finals. And I expect us to get there. My hope is that we can also win one final. I don't expect more than that but nor do I write us off.

While it's possible we'll win four (or even all) of the next five, I don't consider that a pass mark. Three out of five would be acceptable. That said, I would hate to lose to Collingwood, Carlton or Hawthorn - please let us win those games.

The fringe players that we want to get games into, will probably get more games this season e.g. Stephens, McDonald, Campbell. Others, like Gould or Ling, may get chances depending on our injuries and their form.

[dejavoodoo44]

There's nothing like the power of positive thinking to get you in the right frame of mind for a move up the ladder.

It also makes for a good foundation for navigating one's way through the vicissitudes of life. And so many wonderful adages to help you along:

• Just say "NO"!
• Don't think, Don't do.
• Premiership? Not on my watch.
• I would love to be a winner, but I'm just not up to it.
• My mother once told me that the only thing holding me back in life was that I was just not good enough.
• My wife once told me that the only thing holding me back in life was that I had no class.

I could go on, but I want to go on a bike ride before it gets too hot. It is Thailand, you know.

Ahh. Maybe I'll skip it and just go back to bed.

Why bother winning, when we could be tanking for draft picks.

[Thunder Shaker]

My assessment of the remainder of the season.

Sydney's remaining games:
Collingwood (H), Fremantle (A), Carlton (H), St Kilda (A), Hawthorn (H), Port Adelaide (A), West Coast (H), Western Bulldogs (A), GWS Giants (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). Return matches in italics.

Expected number of premiership points from each game (on a scale of 0 to 4):
Collingwood (4), Fremantle (2), Carlton (3), St Kilda (2), Hawthorn (4), Port Adelaide (1), West Coast (3), Western Bulldogs (1), GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2).

Games expected to win (4/4):
Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne.

Games where a win is likely (3/4):
Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle (H), St Kilda (H).

Games with even chances (2/4):
Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), GWS Giants (A), Essendon (A), Gold Coast (H).

Games where a win is unlikely (1/4):
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs.

Total expected premiership points:
From these games 36 (9 wins, 5 losses), at end of season 56 (14 wins, 8 losses).

[Rod_]

My assessment of the remainder of the season.

Sydney's remaining games:
Collingwood (H), Fremantle (A), Carlton (H), St Kilda (A), Hawthorn (H), Port Adelaide (A), West Coast (H), Western Bulldogs (A), GWS Giants (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). Return matches in italics.

Expected number of premiership points from each game (on a scale of 0 to 4):
Collingwood (4), Fremantle (2), Carlton (3), St Kilda (2), Hawthorn (4), Port Adelaide (1), West Coast (3), Western Bulldogs (1), GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2).

Games expected to win (4/4):
Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne.

Games where a win is likely (3/4):
Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle (H), St Kilda (H).

Games with even chances (2/4):
Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), GWS Giants (A), Essendon (A), Gold Coast (H).

Games where a win is unlikely (1/4):
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs.

Total expected premiership points:
From these games 36 (9 wins, 5 losses), at end of season 56 (14 wins, 8 losses).

Seems logical to me!

[barry]

My assessment of the remainder of the season.

Sydney's remaining games:
Collingwood (H), Fremantle (A), Carlton (H), St Kilda (A), Hawthorn (H), Port Adelaide (A), West Coast (H), Western Bulldogs (A), GWS Giants (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). Return matches in italics.

Expected number of premiership points from each game (on a scale of 0 to 4):
Collingwood (4), Fremantle (2), Carlton (3), St Kilda (2), Hawthorn (4), Port Adelaide (1), West Coast (3), Western Bulldogs (1), GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2).

Games expected to win (4/4):
Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne.

Games where a win is likely (3/4):
Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle (H), St Kilda (H).

Games with even chances (2/4):
Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), GWS Giants (A), Essendon (A), Gold Coast (H).

Games where a win is unlikely (1/4):
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs.

Total expected premiership points:
From these games 36 (9 wins, 5 losses), at end of season 56 (14 wins, 8 losses).

I like the idea, But I think your scoring is a bit off.
If we pencil in a loss for anyone more than 4 spots higher, Bulldogs becomes a zero.
Anyone, 3 spots higher is a 1. Port stays at one.
Anyone +2 or -2 around us on the latter, is 50/50 : Westcoast (down to a 2),
Anyone -3 to -7 we are a good chance. Giants (up to 3), Freo (up to 3), StKilda (3), Gold coast (up to 3) , Carlton (3)
Anyone -8 and onwards 4/4: Pies, Dawks, LolNorf, Essendon (up from 2 to 4)

That gives us 3 more points than your prediction, so 15 wins. Thats top 4 material.

[stevoswan]

While it's possible we'll win four (or even all) of the next five, I don't consider that a pass mark. Three out of five would be acceptable. That said, I would hate to lose to Collingwood, Carlton or Hawthorn - please let us win those games.

So 3 out of 5 is 'acceptable' but 4 or 5 out of 5 isn't a 'pass mark'? I sincerely hope your not a teacher!

[707]

So 3 out of 5 is 'acceptable' but 4 or 5 out of 5 isn't a 'pass mark'? I sincerely hope your not a teacher!

I sincerely hope you're not a teacher stevoswan!

[Bexl]

Seems logical to me!

But do you think footy is logical?

[stevoswan]

I sincerely hope you're not a teacher stevoswan!

Thankfully no. Seriously though, can you not see that 4 or 5 out of 5 is better than 3 out of 5?

Teacher to 1st student: "Johnny, you got 3 out of 5....this is acceptable."

Teacher to 2nd student: " Poindexter, you got 5 out of 5.....you failed!"

Poindexter: "WTF?!"

[Nico]

My assessment of the remainder of the season.

Sydney's remaining games:
Collingwood (H), Fremantle (A), Carlton (H), St Kilda (A), Hawthorn (H), Port Adelaide (A), West Coast (H), Western Bulldogs (A), GWS Giants (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). Return matches in italics.

Expected number of premiership points from each game (on a scale of 0 to 4):
Collingwood (4), Fremantle (2), Carlton (3), St Kilda (2), Hawthorn (4), Port Adelaide (1), West Coast (3), Western Bulldogs (1), GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2).

Games expected to win (4/4):
Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne.

Games where a win is likely (3/4):
Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle (H), St Kilda (H).

Games with even chances (2/4):
Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), GWS Giants (A), Essendon (A), Gold Coast (H).

Games where a win is unlikely (1/4):
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs.

Total expected premiership points:
From these games 36 (9 wins, 5 losses), at end of season 56 (14 wins, 8 losses).

I suspect we will improve as the year goes on but I reckon 13 wins is our max. probably gets us into the 8.

[giant]

My assessment of the remainder of the season.

Sydney's remaining games:
Collingwood (H), Fremantle (A), Carlton (H), St Kilda (A), Hawthorn (H), Port Adelaide (A), West Coast (H), Western Bulldogs (A), GWS Giants (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). Return matches in italics.

Expected number of premiership points from each game (on a scale of 0 to 4):
Collingwood (4), Fremantle (2), Carlton (3), St Kilda (2), Hawthorn (4), Port Adelaide (1), West Coast (3), Western Bulldogs (1), GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2).

Games expected to win (4/4):
Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne.

Games where a win is likely (3/4):
Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle (H), St Kilda (H).

Games with even chances (2/4):
Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), GWS Giants (A), Essendon (A), Gold Coast (H).

Games where a win is unlikely (1/4):
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs.

Total expected premiership points:
From these games 36 (9 wins, 5 losses), at end of season 56 (14 wins, 8 losses).

Nice, but I think you're in the minority if you think a win vs West Coast in Perth is "likely".

[stevoswan]

Nice, but I think you're in the minority if you think a win vs West Coast in Perth is "likely".

(H) = Home.