Umpiring: the good, the bad and the ugly

[neilfws]

I reckon it will give the Tippett-thread™? a run for it’s money

I hope so! I'm happy to see this thread, and I hope we can divert people here when umpiring discussion threatens to overrun a match thread.

So to continue this discussion:

Did you read and assess the rest of my post ? I ask because you seem to be fixated on statistics and haven’t addressed my question of the potential impact that debatable or dubious decisions have on players and the flow of games.
I understand that this is not something that is quantifiable however I still believe it has an impact on games.
If you feel that free kicks have no impact in any way on games and results then we can happily agree to disagree.

It's true, I am fixated on statistics - it's kind of what I do for a living. Umpiring decisions are an emotive subject, debating them is part and parcel of the fun of being a footy fan and that's great! But I hope there is room for those of us who take a step back, a deep breath and try to be a bit more objective about it all, even when it's our own team.

I don't feel that free kicks have no impact on games (though I can see how one or two of my posts might be interpreted that way). But I do think that there are very, very few games where the result hung on an umpiring decision. And I also think that of the many factors that can influence the outcome of a game, free kicks are nearer the bottom of the list than the top.

I'd like to recommend the book Footballistics to anyone who enjoys a bit of data analysis. There's an entire chapter in there on home ground advantage and umpire bias. It's complicated...but basically concludes that whilst there is evidence for unconscious umpire bias, it amounts on average to a difference of a few points per game at most. Now you might argue that some games are won and lost by a few points and you'd be right - but that would be to ignore all the other things that went on in the game.

I'd also recommend following the Twitter hashtag for any AFL game (not for long though or your brain will melt). You'll find that fans of every single team are convinced that the umpires are against them, the opponent always gets the rub of the green and even that there is a league conspiracy against their success. I'm afraid Swans fans are nothing special in that regard

Anyway: I'm glad to have this thread, and I'll be using it to try and convince everyone that the free kick differential is a useless number with no bearing on anything!

[Ludwig]

Can we do away with the swear filter for this thread? It should really spice things up.

We can have some full frontal anger venting that might have some positive psychological effects as well.

[Bloods05]

I’m in here for solutions.

What about an umpiring review system for the coaches:

I would propose 2 reviews per half. The coach pushes a button and tells the bunker what decision to review. At the next mark or stoppage the decision is reviewed and an outcome given.

An example would be Luke Beverage challenging that McCartin push in the back in the 1st quarter. The review would have given the Bulldogs the easy shot at goal.

The coaches get a total of two reviews a half and they only get two regardless of the outcome.

In a word: no.

[dejavoodoo44]

I hope so! I'm happy to see this thread, and I hope we can divert people here when umpiring discussion threatens to overrun a match thread.

So to continue this discussion:



It's true, I am fixated on statistics - it's kind of what I do for a living. Umpiring decisions are an emotive subject, debating them is part and parcel of the fun of being a footy fan and that's great! But I hope there is room for those of us who take a step back, a deep breath and try to be a bit more objective about it all, even when it's our own team.

I don't feel that free kicks have no impact on games (though I can see how one or two of my posts might be interpreted that way). But I do think that there are very, very few games where the result hung on an umpiring decision. And I also think that of the many factors that can influence the outcome of a game, free kicks are nearer the bottom of the list than the top.

I'd like to recommend the book Footballistics to anyone who enjoys a bit of data analysis. There's an entire chapter in there on home ground advantage and umpire bias. It's complicated...but basically concludes that whilst there is evidence for unconscious umpire bias, it amounts on average to a difference of a few points per game at most. Now you might argue that some games are won and lost by a few points and you'd be right - but that would be to ignore all the other things that went on in the game.

I'd also recommend following the Twitter hashtag for any AFL game (not for long though or your brain will melt). You'll find that fans of every single team are convinced that the umpires are against them, the opponent always gets the rub of the green and even that there is a league conspiracy against their success. I'm afraid Swans fans are nothing special in that regard

Anyway: I'm glad to have this thread, and I'll be using it to try and convince everyone that the free kick differential is a useless number with no bearing on anything!

I did enjoy Footballistics. I enjoyed James Coventry's other football book, Time and Space, even more. If you haven't read it, it's essentially looking at various innovations in the game, over the last 160 years or so: with the focus on rule changes to speed up the game and coaching tactics that aimed to give players time and space.

[Meg]

I hope so! I'm happy to see this thread, and I hope we can divert people here when umpiring discussion threatens to overrun a match thread.

So to continue this discussion:



It's true, I am fixated on statistics - it's kind of what I do for a living. Umpiring decisions are an emotive subject, debating them is part and parcel of the fun of being a footy fan and that's great! But I hope there is room for those of us who take a step back, a deep breath and try to be a bit more objective about it all, even when it's our own team.

....

Anyway: I'm glad to have this thread, and I'll be using it to try and convince everyone that the free kick differential is a useless number with no bearing on anything!

Thanks Neil, I really enjoy your contributions.

[Legs Akimbo]

Great post Neil. I've bought the book and look forward to reading. I'd suggest the 2016 grand final is an example where a bias had a very big impact on a game. Also the Hawthorn game this year. A statistical analysis doesn’t capture concepts like momentum. Without having read the book yet, i doubt they have considered that the umpiring is in a feedback loop i.e. players go into their shell when they cop a series of poor decisions. Complex human systems often defy statistical analysis, and modelling, at least with the usual techniques. I'll read before judging.

Re people all favouring their team, not surprising. Not sure what that tells us about the statistics though. Also, my view is that the umpiring at present is not just biased in some games, but just really poor. It's a situation of the AFLs making by constant rule changes and using advisories on interpretations as a mechanism for shaping the game's flow. I'd hate the be an umpire. Its more art than science and the value of art is in the eye of the beholder.

[Faunac8]

Unsurprisingly given my previous posts I totally agree with you Legs Akimbo ( why are our arms never Akimbo by the way )
“A statistical analysis doesn’t capture concepts like momentum” this is a simple summary of the point I was trying to convey.
Statistics in football provide us with a very useful tool to compare previous performance but they can’t capture the potential performance that the awarding of free kicks may or may not affect.
Of course in reality nothing can and that’s why many like to ponder the what if’s and attribute much more influence to decisions that we feel have impacted on our team.
That is why no amount of statistical data will ever convince me that umpiring decisions had little or no impact on the 2016 GF
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[KTigers]

Re the 2016 GF (and Stevo will probably self combust down there in Vic when he reads this) I just don't think 12 free kicks are worth
22 points. 12 additional kicks are about 5.5% of the total number of Bulldogs kicks in that game. 22 points (their winning margin) is
25% of their entire score. And if they are then 10 free kicks (the Dogs differential in their prelim against GWS) must be worth 6
points (their winning margin in that game). I can see how a free kick can reverse the direction the ball is heading, and the momentum
thing, but 22 points is a lot to catch up. 6 points isn't though, and so I think the team that was really robbed in 2016 were the Giants.
A Giants-Swans GF that year, well we'll never know...
The above theory has given me "closure" over 2016. With my battery of psychologists I am still working on "resolving" 2014, but
even that process has been complicated by the sight of large birds (that may be eagles) in the sky, and the sight of Wayne Carey
bringing back memories of earlier and still unresolved crises from 2006 and 1996 respectively. It's been a challenging 25 years
I tell you.

[mcs]

Re the 2016 GF (and Stevo will probably self combust down there in Vic when he reads this) I just don't think 12 free kicks are worth 22 points.
12 additional kicks are about 5.5% of the total number of Bulldogs kicks in that game. 22 points (their winning margin) is 25% of their entire
score. And if they are then 10 free kicks (the Dogs differential in their prelim against GWS) must be worth 6 points (their winning margin in
that game). I can see how a free kick can reverse the direction the ball is heading, and the momentum thing, but 22 points is a lot to catch up.
6 points isn't though, and so I think the team that was really robbed in 2016 were the Giants. A Giants-Swans GF that year, well we'll never know...

No doubt the giants were @@@@@@ over royally too.

But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

The issue more broadly with free kick counts is they only capture the actual free kicks given. In many games it those that aren't given that should be given (that Grand Final being a good example). So the statistics only capture part of the story.

[barry]

Shouting at the umpires is like shouting at clouds.

[Markwebbos]

Shouting at the umpires is like shouting at clouds.

Please explain

[KTigers]

No doubt the giants were @@@@@@ over royally too.

But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

The issue more broadly with free kick counts is they only capture the actual free kicks given. In many games it those that aren't given that should be given (that Grand Final being a good example). So the statistics only capture part of the story.

These comments haven't helped me MCS. I had put 2016 behind me. Now I've got to ring my psych team and tell them I need to go back
to sessions five days a week. There's only so many of their kids I can afford to put through private school.

[Bill Posters]

No doubt the giants were @@@@@@ over royally too.

But I think the 22 point margin masks the impact of the umpiring that day somewhat too. We were within what 6 or 7 points with around 5 minutes of in play time left in the game. They kicked those couple of late goals to blow the margin, when the damage had already been done.

The issue more broadly with free kick counts is they only capture the actual free kicks given. In many games it those that aren't given that should be given (that Grand Final being a good example). So the statistics only capture part of the story.

There's also the issue of where the free kicks are given. I'm convinced that often one team are given soft frees in front of goal, then late in the match somehow the free kick tally gets evened up with free kicks in the middle of the field that have no impact.

If we're thinking about technical solutions, what about a system similar to boxing? Where there are, say, 5 umpires watching the footage on TV. Then if 4 of them hit the "free kick" button within a second then a free kick is blown? Given the on-field umpires seem to miss a whole bunch that we can see on TV this might be a solution. Would be interesting to try.

[barry]

Please explain

Clouds are independent bodies of water molecules that completely ignore what any human says to them. A bit like umpires.

[KTigers]

Clouds are independent bodies of water molecules that completely ignore what any human says to them. A bit like umpires.

I like clouds. Some of them are quite pretty. Comparing them to AFL umpires is just really mean Barry.