Predictions for Season 2022

[Ludwig]

I certainly wouldn't have picked you as part of the whole Mac/Mc nanny state thing doing the rounds on here.

I'm just responding to a Mac thing post with the obvious answer. JMac(rae) once got 22 Brownlow votes. The Mac thing confuses me too much, but a bit more confusion won't make that much difference. I'm still trying to sort out the Cuomo family thing.

BTW, I see that Jack Macrae is a free agent this year. Would be a nice addition for those who are into the Mac thing.

[TheBloods]

The Herald Sun has just released Robbo's top 50. Only 2 Swans make it - Buddy at 11 and Mills well into the 40s. No Heeney, Parker, Paps, Lloyd etc. Underestimating us, I think.

He is a drongo

[Bangalore Swans]

The Herald Sun has just released Robbo's top 50. Only 2 Swans make it - Buddy at 11 and Mills well into the 40s. No Heeney, Parker, Paps, Lloyd etc. Underestimating us, I think.

I would think that Heeney is in the 50. Maybe the Swans strength is that they have a lot of guys between 50 and 200. Tom McCartin, Rampe, Lloyd, J-Mac, Parker, Kennedy, Chad, Hickey, Papley and probably Nick Blakey.

That’s a solid even team.

[Nico]

I'm just responding to a Mac thing post with the obvious answer. JMac(rae) once got 22 Brownlow votes. The Mac thing confuses me too much, but a bit more confusion won't make that much difference. I'm still trying to sort out the Cuomo family thing.

BTW, I see that Jack Macrae is a free agent this year. Would be a nice addition for those who are into the Mac thing.

I have to say this: "yes I agree, you're ability to be confused is one of your strengths".

[longmile]

The Herald Sun has just released Robbo's top 50. Only 2 Swans make it - Buddy at 11 and Mills well into the 40s. No Heeney, Parker, Paps, Lloyd etc. Underestimating us, I think.

Slobbo!

People listen to that madman?

[SwanSand]

Max Laughton on fox sports has used certain rules from previous years to predict who misses out on top 8 and predicted that Swans and GWS both missing out with Carlton and Richmond taking up the spots.

Interesting read.

I reckon Geelong, Essendon and Bulldogs are more at risk of missing out than Swans or GWS. And the teams to sneak into are Richmond, Carlton and Fremantle.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Here's the article, which is interesting from a mathematical analysis perspective: AFL news 2022: Season preview, predicted ladder, stats, analysis, rules for picking top eight, historic results, who misses finals

But, I think there's also reality. He's right to say we had a good run with injuries last year, but we've now got greater depth to cope if they become an issue. I'd argue the two most important players on our list, in some ways, last year were Hickey and Tom McCartin - simply because we had no viable alternative. (I mean, there's no other Buddy but that's different).

This year, we have Ladhams (plus McLean and Amartey in a pinch) if Hickey goes out. This year, we have Pat McCartin as an addition down back.

The other point is even allowing for all the excitement re our young stars, few of them played a full season. Gulden, Chad, Campbell and Blakey all missed significant stretches with injuries, Rowbottom played burdened, McDonald wasn't quite ready bar some small patches and Stephens never clicked. They'll all be a year stronger and fitter and more seasoned, so will hopefully contribute more and add to depth.

I've got no doubt injuries will come (they came at the wrong time last year) and Buddy is of course a wildcard if he plays a relatively full season. But I'm far more confident in our capacity to cope with a normal level of injuries.

I think the sides more likely to slide are Essendon (just because they probably slightly over-achieved last year and are still building, even though I think they have some good developing talent), Geelong (who may win enough games at home and through their experience to hang onto the eight, but are going to slide big time some point soon) and while I think they are a well-coached and well-balanced side, I do worry if the repeat finals failures will get into the head of Brisbane.

As for who comes in, I'll definitely back Richmond with a half-decent run of injuries. I'll believe Carlton when I see it, and doubt it anyway. The Saints have recruited dreadfully and destined for mediocrity, and I'm not convinced Freo yet have the KPP talent. The rest have no hope given the state of their lists.

[SwanSand]

The other point is even allowing for all the excitement re our young stars, few of them played a full season. Gulden, Chad, Campbell and Blakey all missed significant stretches with injuries, Rowbottom played burdened, McDonald wasn't quite ready bar some small patches and Stephens never clicked. They'll all be a year stronger and fitter and more seasoned, so will hopefully contribute more and add to depth.

I've got no doubt injuries will come (they came at the wrong time last year) and Buddy is of course a wildcard if he plays a relatively full season. But I'm far more confident in our capacity to cope with a normal level of injuries.

I reckon the question is - where is the improvement coming from? And as you rightly said - lots of ways.

Stronger younger brigade with miles under their belt.
Better ruck situation with good backup options.
Better tall defensive structure with backup options.
Better tall forwards with competition for spots.
More emphasis on contested ball.

The possible negatives being -
Loss of Dawson who had a super year and was a major contributor for the way we played last year.
Loss of Papley to start with will make our forward structure a bit more predictable. He is the X factor in the forward line.
Buddy - unknown how many games he will play but he looks fit and ready for a long season.
Big body midfielder - losing best of Kennedy and Hewett in the middle may make us a bit too small in the middle of the field.
Injury toll - Unknown how we will get through the season.

Bring it on. I think we may still be in top 8 but not an easy ride. And there will probably not be as many blowout wins.

[Aprilbr]

I reckon the question is - where is the improvement coming from? And as you rightly said - lots of ways.

Stronger younger brigade with miles under their belt.
Better ruck situation with good backup options.
Better tall defensive structure with backup options.
Better tall forwards with competition for spots.
More emphasis on contested ball.

The possible negatives being -
Loss of Dawson who had a super year and was a major contributor for the way we played last year.
Loss of Papley to start with will make our forward structure a bit more predictable. He is the X factor in the forward line.
Buddy - unknown how many games he will play but he looks fit and ready for a long season.
Big body midfielder - losing best of Kennedy and Hewett in the middle may make us a bit too small in the middle of the field.
Injury toll - Unknown how we will get through the season.

Bring it on. I think we may still be in top 8 but not an easy ride. And there will probably not be as many blowout wins.

Nice analysis, SS. A lot of good points there. I think the midfield needs someone to step up to elite status for us to contend as all of the better sides have at least one elite midfielder. I think that Mills, Parker, Kennedy and Rowbottom will alternate to cover the big bodied midfielder side of things. Explosiveness coming from Chad, Heeney and Paps. Then throw in McInerney, Florent, Stephens, Campbell and Errol on the wings/flanks.we have a pretty even list when you think about it. Unusual for us as we often relied on a few superstars in the past.

[NeonBible]

Hi all,

Have loved reading over your thoughts!! Season's just around the corner now.. i thought i would give a very brief summary of what i hope each player has worked on to get better this year..

(1) Warner - building his body strength! he is already a supreme physical player but if he wants to reach the freakish heights that some have predicted on here, it can't hurt to add some more bulk to that frame!!

(2) McLean - close the gap between his best and worst.. his best is quite impressive. His worst.. he goes completely MIA! Fixing this will help him be more consistent.

(3) Stephens - harden up... and boy doesn't it look like he has!! Like Chad a bit, he was a boy trying to play a mans game.. a few extra kgs certainly look to have given him more confidence!!

(5) Heeney - embrace the hype!! Besides Buddy he is our most entertaining, popular player.. he should buy into that reputation and let his stardom shine! It already shines a LOT but it could still shine even more!

(6) McDonald - get bigger son! (And re-sign!!) His slight frame is the only thing stopping this prodigal talent from taking off!

(7) Cunningham - keep on doing what ya doing Haz! Nothing complicated about his role but boy hasn't he become a reliable player down back!!

(8) Rowbottom - he needs to get mean! Focus on wanting to hurt the opposition and get a bit cocky! No more passiveness! No more Mr Nice guy! He is hard as nails but is timid and hasn't shown the confidence of a few years ago.

(9) Hayward - work on his endurance.. i love his kicking style, i wish he had the ball maybe 5 times more each game.. working up and down around the ground to get involved will help with that!

(11) Papley - STAY FIT! That is all.. he is a supreme small forward, he will be sorely missed in the opening rounds..

(12) Kennedy - Adapt. Adapt. Adapt. He will have to. With our midfield contingent growing every year, Joey must learn to play other roles if he is to stay a relevant part of the team.. and i am backing him in to do it!

(13) Florent - same as McLean.. consistency! His best is superb.. his worst sees him wade in and out of games too much! C'mon Ollie, show us how good you can be.

(14) Mills - Stay fit and develop an outside game.. not too much.. he is an inside bull after all. But enough that he can still be very dangerous even when not in the clinches..

(15) Wicks - kick straight!! Nothing complicated here.. just convert your opportunities Sam and things will go your way.

(16) Campbell - find your position young man. Is it a back pocket small defender?? Is it a half back flanker?? Is it a speedy wingman? Small forward? Inside mid?? Finding out the answer will help unlock his potential.

(19) Ladhams - find the drive... the talent is there.. reportedly he wasn't the most professional of players at Alberton.. i'd back the bloods to work through any of those issues!

(20) Reid - train hard. That is all he can do. I'm afraid he is out of the 22 and is now relying on opportunities through others misfortunes... he needs to be fit and ready if and when those opportunities come.

(21) Gulden - keep doing what he is doing. He is a sublime player.

(22) Blakey - THE LIZARD needs to learn to contest 1v1s. if he can do that playing in defence it will be another string to his bow. He would be the complete asset in defensive 50!!

(23) Franklin - Get the 1000 over and done with as early as possible... and then march onto another great season... and hopefully a flag!

(24) Rampe - have faith. He needs to have faith in the Mccartin bros.. that will give him the freedom to play the dangerous rebounding man we all know he can be.. shutting down smalls and then firing cannons out of the back half.

(26) Parker - keep doing what he's doing. Sensational captain and inspirational player.

(27) McInerney - it's funny i didn't notice it until someone on here mentioned it, and then i re-watched the AAMI community game.. his handball technique needs a lot of work!! That is the only chink in what is a brilliantly skilful armour!

(29) Sheldrick - head down, bum up and get to work! Your time will come at some point Gus and you want to be ready when it does!

(30) T. McCartin - Learn from your experiences. He had some fantastic games as a defender last year, but there were a few where he was found out.. he can take lessons from those and become even better! As all champions do.

(31) Hickey - take care of that knee! What a revelation! Such a relief to have a ruckman who has ticker, like Sinclair, and skill, like Naismith!

(32) Bell - like Reid, hang in there.. stay fit and focused. If and when his time comes.. maybe Wicks gets dropped.. maybe Paps injury is worse than suspected.. Bell might be relied upon..

(33) Sheather - don't let a pre-season injury kill your spirit. He was very much on the right track with his attack on the ball and the contest.. that will hold him in good stead when he is up and about once again.

(34) Roberts - keep doing what your doing. He hasn't "done" anything just yet.. hasn't even played a full game! But his selection in the AAMI community squad suggests he has endeared himself to the coaches already!

(36) Amartey - focus on goal craft. I believe we have a great goalkicking forward in Franklin.. two great marking forwards in McLean and McDonald.. and a great rucking forward in Ladhams.. but someone who can do that all? Wouldn't that be nice!! Amartey is a potential candidate.. needs a lot of improvement.

(38) O'Riordan - take your chances. They won't come very often but he is averaging a handful of games at most every year.. when those handful come this year.. he needs to seize those opportunities.

(39) P. McCartin - keep working on his fitness. His marking - tick. His kicking - tick. His body work - tick. The only question mark is over his fitness and athleticism.. if he can keep his pace then he is going to be a steal!!

(42) Fox - stay positive. A solid contributor every time he dons the red and white. He can't be discouraged by not being selected in the firsts every week.

(43) Melican - find consistency. Play regular games so he can improve his game sense and awareness. That will give him the best opportunity at thriving as a key defender.

(44) Lloyd - just like Joey.. adapt! He finally has some help in defence.. Jmac, the Lizard, BJ.. he doesn't need to be the sweeping accumulator getting 30 touches to be a good player of the team anymore! He must be relieved!

Others I didn't include: Clarke (4), Gould (17), Sinclair (18), Ronke (25), Taylor (28), O'Connor (35), C. Warner (37), Rankin (41) and McAndrew (46)... they are in the position where their fate in the seniors is out of their hands... but their fate in the VFL is very much in their own hands... if they work hard, put in good performances, keep themselves in the hunt for a senior spot.. you never know what reward could come their way!!

Super excited for the season to commence!! I am cautiously optimistic!

CHEER CHEER

[Aprilbr]

Hi all,

Have loved reading over your thoughts!! Season's just around the corner now.. i thought i would give a very brief summary of what i hope each player has worked on to get better this year..

(1) Warner - building his body strength! he is already a supreme physical player but if he wants to reach the freakish heights that some have predicted on here, it can't hurt to add some more bulk to that frame!!

(2) McLean - close the gap between his best and worst.. his best is quite impressive. His worst.. he goes completely MIA! Fixing this will help him be more consistent.

(3) Stephens - harden up... and boy doesn't it look like he has!! Like Chad a bit, he was a boy trying to play a mans game.. a few extra kgs certainly look to have given him more confidence!!

(5) Heeney - embrace the hype!! Besides Buddy he is our most entertaining, popular player.. he should buy into that reputation and let his stardom shine! It already shines a LOT but it could still shine even more!

(6) McDonald - get bigger son! (And re-sign!!) His slight frame is the only thing stopping this prodigal talent from taking off!

(7) Cunningham - keep on doing what ya doing Haz! Nothing complicated about his role but boy hasn't he become a reliable player down back!!

(8) Rowbottom - he needs to get mean! Focus on wanting to hurt the opposition and get a bit cocky! No more passiveness! No more Mr Nice guy! He is hard as nails but is timid and hasn't shown the confidence of a few years ago.

(9) Hayward - work on his endurance.. i love his kicking style, i wish he had the ball maybe 5 times more each game.. working up and down around the ground to get involved will help with that!

(11) Papley - STAY FIT! That is all.. he is a supreme small forward, he will be sorely missed in the opening rounds..

(12) Kennedy - Adapt. Adapt. Adapt. He will have to. With our midfield contingent growing every year, Joey must learn to play other roles if he is to stay a relevant part of the team.. and i am backing him in to do it!

(13) Florent - same as McLean.. consistency! His best is superb.. his worst sees him wade in and out of games too much! C'mon Ollie, show us how good you can be.

(14) Mills - Stay fit and develop an outside game.. not too much.. he is an inside bull after all. But enough that he can still be very dangerous even when not in the clinches..

(15) Wicks - kick straight!! Nothing complicated here.. just convert your opportunities Sam and things will go your way.

(16) Campbell - find your position young man. Is it a back pocket small defender?? Is it a half back flanker?? Is it a speedy wingman? Small forward? Inside mid?? Finding out the answer will help unlock his potential.

(19) Ladhams - find the drive... the talent is there.. reportedly he wasn't the most professional of players at Alberton.. i'd back the bloods to work through any of those issues!

(20) Reid - train hard. That is all he can do. I'm afraid he is out of the 22 and is now relying on opportunities through others misfortunes... he needs to be fit and ready if and when those opportunities come.

(21) Gulden - keep doing what he is doing. He is a sublime player.

(22) Blakey - THE LIZARD needs to learn to contest 1v1s. if he can do that playing in defence it will be another string to his bow. He would be the complete asset in defensive 50!!

(23) Franklin - Get the 1000 over and done with as early as possible... and then march onto another great season... and hopefully a flag!

(24) Rampe - have faith. He needs to have faith in the Mccartin bros.. that will give him the freedom to play the dangerous rebounding man we all know he can be.. shutting down smalls and then firing cannons out of the back half.

(26) Parker - keep doing what he's doing. Sensational captain and inspirational player.

(27) McInerney - it's funny i didn't notice it until someone on here mentioned it, and then i re-watched the AAMI community game.. his handball technique needs a lot of work!! That is the only chink in what is a brilliantly skilful armour!

(29) Sheldrick - head down, bum up and get to work! Your time will come at some point Gus and you want to be ready when it does!

(30) T. McCartin - Learn from your experiences. He had some fantastic games as a defender last year, but there were a few where he was found out.. he can take lessons from those and become even better! As all champions do.

(31) Hickey - take care of that knee! What a revelation! Such a relief to have a ruckman who has ticker, like Sinclair, and skill, like Naismith!

(32) Bell - like Reid, hang in there.. stay fit and focused. If and when his time comes.. maybe Wicks gets dropped.. maybe Paps injury is worse than suspected.. Bell might be relied upon..

(33) Sheather - don't let a pre-season injury kill your spirit. He was very much on the right track with his attack on the ball and the contest.. that will hold him in good stead when he is up and about once again.

(34) Roberts - keep doing what your doing. He hasn't "done" anything just yet.. hasn't even played a full game! But his selection in the AAMI community squad suggests he has endeared himself to the coaches already!

(36) Amartey - focus on goal craft. I believe we have a great goalkicking forward in Franklin.. two great marking forwards in McLean and McDonald.. and a great rucking forward in Ladhams.. but someone who can do that all? Wouldn't that be nice!! Amartey is a potential candidate.. needs a lot of improvement.

(38) O'Riordan - take your chances. They won't come very often but he is averaging a handful of games at most every year.. when those handful come this year.. he needs to seize those opportunities.

(39) P. McCartin - keep working on his fitness. His marking - tick. His kicking - tick. His body work - tick. The only question mark is over his fitness and athleticism.. if he can keep his pace then he is going to be a steal!!

(42) Fox - stay positive. A solid contributor every time he dons the red and white. He can't be discouraged by not being selected in the firsts every week.

(43) Melican - find consistency. Play regular games so he can improve his game sense and awareness. That will give him the best opportunity at thriving as a key defender.

(44) Lloyd - just like Joey.. adapt! He finally has some help in defence.. Jmac, the Lizard, BJ.. he doesn't need to be the sweeping accumulator getting 30 touches to be a good player of the team anymore! He must be relieved!

Others I didn't include: Clarke (4), Gould (17), Sinclair (18), Ronke (25), Taylor (28), O'Connor (35), C. Warner (37), Rankin (41) and McAndrew (46)... they are in the position where their fate in the seniors is out of their hands... but their fate in the VFL is very much in their own hands... if they work hard, put in good performances, keep themselves in the hunt for a senior spot.. you never know what reward could come their way!!

Super excited for the season to commence!! I am cautiously optimistic!

CHEER CHEER

Briliant post, NB, and hear hear to most of what you have to say! Its an exciting time of the year. I've started humming this classic footy song from the 1970s:


"When the football season comes around again
And the fans are swarming to the ground again.
There's a kind of fever, keeps us on our toes,
Hear the fans all roaring, as the whistle blows.
Weathers pouring and your teams behind.
Still you never throw in the towel.
'Cause it's football season and that's the reason it's the time of the year that we love."

[KSAS]

My hunch is that the Bulldogs will go the other way: in a similar manner to the 2020 Giants, after they were humiliated in the 2019 GF by Richmond. I think both the 2019 Giants and the 2021 Bulldogs played with much the same swagger, with the belief that with their talent, a premiership was just a matter of time. After that self belief was knocked out of the Giants by the Tigers, they were a shadow of their former selves and never really looked like contenders. So, let's hope that the beating that the Demons gave the Bulldogs, eats away at their confidence in a similar manner. Also, if the AFL is serious about the crackdown on illegal disposal, that they announced a little while ago; then that could be problematic for the Bulldogs.

Footy Classified picked up on this theme last night showing table of losing Grand Finalists since 2000 who lost by over 60 points and their performance the following the year. Most of them didn't even make finals. Some got eliminated after the first week of finals. We went deepest going out in straight sets in 2015 after finishing 4th. They put the spotlight on the Bulldogs in this regard on the back of Caro's concern on Beveridge's behaviour last week.

[dejavoodoo44]

Footy Classified picked up on this theme last night showing table of losing Grand Finalists since 2000 who lost by over 60 points and their performance the following the year. Most of them didn't even make finals. Some got eliminated after the first week of finals. We went deepest going out in straight sets in 2015 after finishing 4th. They put the spotlight on the Bulldogs in this regard on the back of Caro's concern on Beveridge's behaviour last week.

Personally, I'd quite enjoy their season becoming an extended train wreck.