Swans chat Melbourne's 1st pick

[Southern Swan15]

Well it was looking like pick 18...... where will it finish now????

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[liz]

Sadly I don't think they'll win the wooden spoon.

[MattW]

Well it was looking like pick 18...... where will it finish now????

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They'll finish top 8, so best case scenario is they finish 5-8 and lose elimination final. That'd be pick 11 or 12.

[Maltopia]

Melbourne have two matches against Brisbane, Freo away, Geelong away, Bulldogs at Marvell, Pies and Carlton at home, Port away and Adelaide away.

That is a tough stretch of 9 games and they could easily finish out of the top four.

Then it comes to how many great Father/Son and Academy picks are at the very top end.

But on the other hand, they could still finish top three with May returning and if Petracca refinds his from from last year.

[royboy42]

I dunno.
More cracks are appearing at Melb than just a mid season, post premiership slump.
3 sides have now blown them away at the latter stages of the game.
As Maltopia pointed out, they don't have a easy ride home.
I think a significant drop could happen.
Hope so, anyway.
Of course, the return of May will make a huge difference to their defence.

[Thunder Shaker]

Melbourne's last three weeks have had brilliant first quarters and woeful second halves.

Average scores over the past three weeks.

1st quarter. Melbourne 21, opponents 9?.
Second half. Melbourne 17, opponents 53.
Match total. Melbourne 58, opponents 83.

Here's the reason why. Goal accuracy (goals divided by goals plus behinds):
1st quarter. Melbourne 71.4%, opponents 11.1%.
Second half. Melbourne 27.3%, opponents 73.5%.
Match total. Melbourne 45.3%, opponents 52.2%.

[barry]

I dunno.
More cracks are appearing at Melb than just a mid season, post premiership slump.
3 sides have now blown them away at the latter stages of the game.
As Maltopia pointed out, they don't have a easy ride home.
I think a significant drop could happen.
Hope so, anyway.
Of course, the return of May will make a huge difference to their defence.

May returns and they will be a completely different team. They still have a very strong list.

[Ludwig]

From the standpoint of draft picks, it's the same if Melbourne win the flag and we finish 6th, or we win the flag and Melbourne finish 6th, so we might as well win the flag, I guess.

[Nico]

May returns and they will be a completely different team. They still have a very strong list.

Depends on how many beers he has before the game, at quarter time, half time and 3 quarter time.

[707]

This year there is only one F/S in first round contention that will distort the selection order.

Ashcroft, touted a likely top 3, still hasn't declared if he'll accept a F?S nomination from Brisbane. He is based in Melbourne and would apparently prefer to stay there. At this stage he'd be eyeing off joining Norf or Essendon in Melb (no thanks), West Coast or Adelaide away from Melbourne (why would you risk it) or nominate Brisbane (away from mummy I know) a strong contending club where your father played in three flags.

Soooo, I'd reckon our picks will all get pushed out by one and Brisbane will put their first rounder, a likely late teens, up for grabs. Would we entertain trading for it by using our 2023 first rounder?

[Maltopia]

Depends on how many beers he has before the game, at quarter time, half time and 3 quarter time.

Do you remember when he was first recruited to Melbourne from the Suns? Didn’t he have a suspension early on for drinking or some other poor standards issue?

[liz]

Do you remember when he was first recruited to Melbourne from the Suns? Didn’t he have a suspension early on for drinking or some other poor standards issue?

Can't remember if he received a club suspension, but he turned up in poor physical shape and proceeded to blame the Suns' training regime. I think he was injured for the early part of the season (possibly related to turning up in poor shape).

[MattW]

From the standpoint of draft picks, it's the same if Melbourne win the flag and we finish 6th, or we win the flag and Melbourne finish 6th, so we might as well win the flag, I guess.

Nice. Which alternative is more likely, in your view?

[Markwebbos]

From the standpoint of draft picks, it's the same if Melbourne win the flag and we finish 6th, or we win the flag and Melbourne finish 6th, so we might as well win the flag, I guess.

Why not we win the flag and they finish 9th?

Wonder if we’ll take both first rounders to the draft ?

We’ll only need a second rounder for Zurhaar I reckon

[Nico]

Why not we win the flag and they finish 9th?

Wonder if we’ll take both first rounders to the draft ?

We’ll only need a second rounder for Zurhaar I reckon

Wouldn't waste a first rounder on him. I prefer to go into the draft with 2 first rounders.