Swans chat How much have we really improved ?

[gloveski]

On face value I think we have improved dramatically this year but we have actually only won one more game this year . Percentage was the only reason we missed the top four last year.
Hopefully the improvement will be shown by finals wins this year


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[Maltopia]

We have got a better result with a second chance which is great, but if one wants to have more of glass half empty perspective, we didn’t really improve our results this year given our easier draw.

Last year we played GWS, Gold Coast, Fremantle (though not as strong as this year), St Kilda and Essendon twice.

This year we played North Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, GWS and Bulldogs twice.

North though try-hards, are an expected win, and Bulldogs only scraped into the top 8 by the bare minimum of percentage, so you could say we were given an extra win compared to other top four/eight teams who only faced them once. So that accounts for our one extra win.

So you could say we are around the same as last year in terms or results. Yes we had some great wins, but we should have won one more game to be ahead of last year given our easier draw. Eg just one of the games we dropped vs Essendon, Gold Coast and Port when they were vulnerable would make it much easier to say we have improved.

However, our percentage is much better than last year, so we are winning by more and losing by less, and we have been able to come from far behind to win some games.

Warner is much better than last year, that is a clear improvement. We also have Paddy and Ladhams has been mostly solid. Reid has given us a much better year. Rowbottom too.

But J Mac is much worse than last year, as is Wicks, and we lost Hewitt and Dawson.

So overall, love finishing third to get a second chance in the finals, and love the big wins and seven game winning streak into the finals, but I think you could make a strong case that we are around the same level as last year? Especially when we had seven chances in the final quarter to overtake GWS and win the final, and who knows what would have happened after that? A single missed kick (x 7) got us eliminated.

If we win a final this year, I will say we are better than last year for sure!

[mcs]

Despite some horrid losses along the way, I think the greatest improvement we have seen collectively for the team this year is an improved ability to adapt our game and control matches through a variety of different tactical approaches. I.e. I think there has been a significant drop off of a feeling from last year we were a bit of a 'one trick pony' to some degree.

Some of our best wins along the way - Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle for example all had very different hallmarks as to why we won the games, reflecting an increasing tactical maturity amongst the team as a whole, which to me is one of the most exciting things to see. The best teams (unless they are truly a long way in front of the rest) can't always impose their preferred approach to winning a game every week, so have to learn to win a variety of ways.

From here, not making a Preliminary final would be very disappointing, but I think the small difference in terms of regular season results doesn't compeltely reflect the substantial improvement we've seen this year.

Re: the draw. It is some luck of the irish whether the draw is easier, harder or anything else for many teams season to season - unless you have a massive swing in where you finish between seasons.

[TheBloods]

Gee tough to please some

[gloveski]

Gee tough to please some

Not at all I’m bullish as for this final series but also still realise we are still a work in progress and we will need to be at our absolute best . Exciting times ahead


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[liz]

Despite some horrid losses along the way, I think the greatest improvement we have seen collectively for the team this year is an improved ability to adapt our game and control matches through a variety of different tactical approaches. I.e. I think there has been a significant drop off of a feeling from last year we were a bit of a 'one trick pony' to some degree.

Some of our best wins along the way - Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle for example all had very different hallmarks as to why we won the games, reflecting an increasing tactical maturity amongst the team as a whole, which to me is one of the most exciting things to see. The best teams (unless they are truly a long way in front of the rest) can't always impose their preferred approach to winning a game every week, so have to learn to win a variety of ways.

From here, not making a Preliminary final would be very disappointing, but I think the small difference in terms of regular season results doesn't compeltely reflect the substantial improvement we've seen this year.

Re: the draw. It is some luck of the irish whether the draw is easier, harder or anything else for many teams season to season - unless you have a massive swing in where you finish between seasons.

I think that has nailed most of my thoughts about where we are compared to last year.

I'd add that I think we are a more even side this year than last. There's no longer a single player in the midfield or the forward line that we really rely upon to win games. So we can afford for Warner to start to experience being tagged, such that we get a few moments of quality from him rather than the quantity of, say, the Freo game. But we have others to step up. We can afford for a defence to focus on stifling Heeney and Franklin (as the Saints tried to do yesterday) but we have Hayward and McDonald (or in other games, Amartey or McLean) able to take advantage and chime in with a couple of goals.

In terms of where we are going into the finals series this year compared to last year (as opposed to comparing how we got here), I have no doubt we're in a better position. We have a strong intercept marker in defence (PMac) that we didn't really have last year. We have Mills without an achilles complaint. We have Blakey, who didn't participate in last year's final. We have Fox, Lloyd and Florent who, collectively, have become a tight smaller defender brigade. We have Reid playing very well as a second ruck - although he did return late last year, he didn't rediscover the form that he'd shown early in the season before his injury. And we have Warner, Rowbottom, Hayward (and maybe others) whose natural development has made them stronger contributors than a year ago.

[Hotpotato]

And a fit Buddy .

[crackedactor 01]

Not at all I’m bullish as for this final series but also still realise we are still a work in progress and we will need to be at our absolute best . Exciting times ahead


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Personally I am very bullish about our finals appearance. Which sides have we beaten this year? Thats right the top 4 sides in the competition (apart from Sydney)- Geelong, Melbourne, Collingwood and Fremantle. Quite impressive and also indicates our best is good enough to win the flag. The only aspect that worries me is that we don't always bring our best to the park such as our efforts against Essendon and Port Adelaide.

[RogueSwan]

Our goal kicking accuracy went backwards (only counting scoring shots)
2021 we kicked 293.228 (~56%)
2022 we kicked 300.267 (~53%) which I thought was poor but is actually pretty much the average of the top 8 teams.
Cats 52%
dees 52%
pies 54%
dockers 52%
lions 58%
tigers 55%
dogs 53%

However, Buddy's right foot accuracy was 2.0 (or was it 3.0)

[i'm-uninformed2]

I think we've improved in several different ways:

* Continued rise of the young uns: by the end of last year, Blakey was out, Gulden had missed a chunk, Campbell a chunk (appreciating he hasn't quite cracked it this year), Warner a big chunk, Rowie was playing badly injured, McDonald was a blip. Bar Campbell, nearly all those players have improved substantially and played regularly and consistently; plus Stephens has kicked into gear; and McDonald keeps getting better.

* Defence: Paddy makes a massive difference. That intercept marker is so crucial to every team. Don't be surprised if Melbourne send Melksham to him. And as others have observed, the combination of Fox and Florent down back has given us a settled structure that both defends and rebounds well.

* Offence: we were still very focused on Bud at times last year. I think we have done a superb job this year of taking advantage of our mix of weapons up forward, both in how we structure our forward line at different times, and how we move the ball in. Bud's still going to kick his three or four goals because he's the GOAT and still finds a way, but it strikes me he has rarely been the dominant player down there. And whilst the Melbourne media love to rave on about Collingwood's run and dare, the fact is we've scored 230 more points than them - or basically two goals a game.

But for me, the big improvement has actually come in the second half of the season. Think of the following players: Chad - gone from good in the first half of the season, to elite in the second half. Rowie - gone from good defensively in the first half of the season, to terrific at the contest and ball-winning in the guts and taking a huge load of Mills and Parker. Hayward - gone from role player to essential. Stephens - not even in the side, to lock down a wing spot. Florent - from not sure about his place, to holding off Harry (who I rate). Fox - same as Florent. Paps - injured and out of touch, to being named AA squad based on his second half. Reid - in and out, to indispensible. On it goes.

The other part of our second half of the season is the dynamism around the ball, despite our substandard effort last weekend. We're now rolling a different mix of players through there. Paps into the middle gives us a burst player we didn't really have early in the season. Chad's gone to another level. Rowie's lift in performance gives us more flexibility on the use of Mills. Heeney's going in there late in third and fourth quarters to mix it up again. Etc etc

It's been fantastic to watch, and may we keep peaking and improving come finals.

[111431]

excellent analysis

[KTigers]

I like the fact that we were 9-0-2 at home this year. Maybe the old "Fortress SCG" has been rebuilt properly, after a period of
being in need of renovation.

[TheBloods]

Whats wrong with being similar to last year ? We were 1 straight kick away from a semi final and wouldve killed Geelong , if we are tracking about the same as last year that is ok by me !

[Nico]

It's tough at the top. As mentioned above we have made incremental improvements which a club has to do to stay there. One improvement has been our ability to finish games strongly. In 2020 we lost games by small margins that if we had won would have made our season look pretty encouraging.

There is also a bit of luck with injuries required. I reckon a few of us whinced a bit when we saw Papley on the bench and Heeney next to him with a boot off.

One thing that stands out to me is the stability of the team in the 2nd half of the season with little change to personnel.

[Faunac8]

Great analysis by imuninformed2 I also think the improvements in what some may call our bottom six has been noticeable. We have some great depth and quite a few of our VFL squad would probably be playing seniors at other clubs.
It’s an impressive “ rebuild “ in such a short time and the recruitment team should give themselves a well deserved pat on the back.
At the risk of setting someone off Chad could well be looked back as one of our all time great draft steals . Pick 39 and potentially could be right up there with our pick 43 in 1997 by the time he finishes ????