Rd 4 vs Port Adelaide @ SCG, Saturday April 8 7:30PM - Pre-match Thread

[Ruck'n'Roll]

So David King dramatizes two isolated incidents and suddenly Buddy is impotent. Tabloid rubbish. I was at the game and thought he and May had a good duel and probably broke even. Should be Buddy's last year but he's far from a spent force.

I have little time for King, but the linked article, especially the part headed THE SWANS WITH — AND WITHOUT — BUDDY seems extremely well argued - actually a bit of an eye opener for me. Over the past 3 years, the Swans have been 9 points better off without Buddy than with. The numbers are in - and I know Buddy remains a sacred cow for many, but for others - team should be all.
No amount of additional highlights-real-moments should be more important than that ideal - I understand that team first is central tenent of the Bloods Culture.

[bloodspirit]

I'm not convinced at all about the arguments of omitting Buddy. The data is based on a sample of just 8 games spread over 3 years. That includes our games against Hawthorn and Melbourne - which just goes to show how those kinds of very different games can skew the outcomes. The fact that we scored fewer goals with Buddy in the team against Melbourne compared to without him against Gold Coast had more to do with the opposition than the forwards we selected. In fact I've been impressed at how effective Buddy has been in both games he's played this year - albeit his impact has all come early in the match (which is, to be sure, a more important time than junk time).

I'm certainly not against changing up Buddy's role. And I think King has a point that Buddy is now struggling to dob goals from long range. But that doesn't mean he isn't worthy of selection. I think Nathan Buckley sums it up pretty well:

Nathan Buckley said if moving Franklin away from the forward 50 would be the best thing for the Swans, Longmire would be courageous enough to do it.
“I reckon if there’s one club that looks past names and just chooses who its best side is, I think its Sydney. That’s the way Sydney go about it,” Buckley told On The Couch.
“I think there will always be somewhere for Buddy Franklin to play. He’s got capacity to go to the wing, he’s got capacity to go into the midfield still. He can play like a Jeremy Cameron where he can get up and turn.”

AFL news 2023: Lance Franklin stats, contract, Sydney Swans issues, Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald (foxsports.com.au)

[Blood Fever]

I'm not convinced at all about the arguments of omitting Buddy. The data is based on a sample of just 8 games spread over 3 years. That includes our games against Hawthorn and Melbourne - which just goes to show how those kinds of very different games can skew the outcomes. The fact that we scored fewer goals with Buddy in the team against Melbourne compared to without him against Gold Coast had more to do with the opposition than the forwards we selected. In fact I've been impressed at how effective Buddy has been in both games he's played this year - albeit his impact has all come early in the match (which is, to be sure, a more important time than junk time).

I'm certainly not against changing up Buddy's role. And I think King has a point that Buddy is now struggling to dob goals from long range. But that doesn't mean he isn't worthy of selection. I think Nathan Buckley sums it up pretty well:

Nathan Buckley said if moving Franklin away from the forward 50 would be the best thing for the Swans, Longmire would be courageous enough to do it.
“I reckon if there’s one club that looks past names and just chooses who its best side is, I think its Sydney. That’s the way Sydney go about it,” Buckley told On The Couch.
“I think there will always be somewhere for Buddy Franklin to play. He’s got capacity to go to the wing, he’s got capacity to go into the midfield still. He can play like a Jeremy Cameron where he can get up and turn.”

AFL news 2023: Lance Franklin stats, contract, Sydney Swans issues, Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald (foxsports.com.au)

He is a magnificent field kick when delivering the ball into the 50 but he is also a huge unit who brings the ball to ground.

[crackedactor 01]

Remember we got within 6 points of the Demons 1/2 way through the third quarter after being 5 goals down. It early season and you may look at the question the fitness level that may have caused the last quarter fade out especially considering the comeback aspect. There is no need to panic and the only change I can see is Stephens or McIn out of side for Sheldrick.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

“I think there will always be somewhere for Buddy Franklin to play. He’s got capacity to go to the wing, he’s got capacity to go into the midfield still. He can play like a Jeremy Cameron where he can get up and turn.”

There's nothing wrong with that sentence except the utilisation of the present tense in most of the verbs.
I'm not convinced on Buddy being a liability (although the numbers with v's without have made me think) - but Nathan Buckley certainly is.

[Maltopia]

I have little time for King, but the linked article, especially the part headed THE SWANS WITH — AND WITHOUT — BUDDY seems extremely well argued - actually a bit of an eye opener for me. Over the past 3 years, the Swans have been 9 points better off without Buddy than with. The numbers are in - and I know Buddy remains a sacred cow for many, but for others - team should be all.
No amount of additional highlights-real-moments should be more important than that ideal - I understand that team first is central tenent of the Bloods Culture.

Statistics can be cherry-picked.

So we score 9 points less in that sample of games when Buddy played.

What was our win/loss ratio when Buddy played/didn't play? Were the games home, away, against top eight sides, did Buddy play in more games in the wet where it is harder to score etc?

For a valid statistical analysis to be made, they have to factor in all the variables to make sure it is not apples vs oranges.

For example, Buddy didn't play in Round 2 and we were +80 point winners and MacDonald and Almartey kicked 9. If Buddy played, would we have won by more or less than 80, and how many would the tall forwards have kicked? Could be 8, could also be 13.

Against Melbourne, Buddy kicked 2.2 against May with us being -34 contested. I think if MacDonald had kicked 2.2 on an All Australian full back with that supply, we would be quite happy and say it was a good job.

I am not a rusted on Buddy supporter, but I don't think anyone has put forward rigorous data yet, to show that we are better without him in the starting 22. Obviously as the year plays out, we will have more data and evidence to show that Buddy is lacking effectiveness, but it is too early.

[ugg]

No changes

Emergencies are Sheldrick McAndrew McLean and Fox

[Blood Fever]

“I think there will always be somewhere for Buddy Franklin to play. He’s got capacity to go to the wing, he’s got capacity to go into the midfield still. He can play like a Jeremy Cameron where he can get up and turn.”

There's nothing wrong with that sentence except the utilisation of the present tense in most of the verbs.
I'm not convinced on Buddy being a liability (although the numbers with v's without have made me think) - but Nathan Buckley certainly is.

So Buckley says he can play like Jeremy Cameron and you reckon Buckley thinks he's a liability?

[707]

Emergencies are Sheldrick McAndrew McLean and Fox

One from each line

Port have swung the axe

[stevoswan]

Port have beaten us the last 6 outings! Amazing that, we are due then LOL

The last 4 have been at the Adelaide Oval. We'll smash them at home I reckon.

- - - Updated - - -

So David King dramatizes two isolated incidents and suddenly Buddy is impotent. Tabloid rubbish. I was at the game and thought he and May had a good duel and probably broke even. Should be Buddy's last year but he's far from a spent force.

Tend to agree but Ludwig's totally correct about Amartey. We can't lose him.

[i'm-uninformed2]

We won’t lose Amartey, as long as we recognise that as much as Reid has been a great servant, right now - playing Amartey as a forward/2nd ruck is in the best interests of the club and he’s deserved his spot.

[Blood Fever]

The last 4 have been at the Adelaide Oval. We'll smash them at home I reckon.

- - - Updated - - -



Tend to agree but Ludwig's totally correct about Amartey. We can't lose him.

Unless we are eying someone else to bring in.

[MattW]

Emergencies are Sheldrick McAndrew McLean and Fox

One from each line

Port have swung the axe

So Roberts finally gets a VFL game. It'll be interesting to see whether they give Fox one too or being him straight back as the sub.

[dejavoodoo44]

So Roberts finally gets a VFL game. It'll be interesting to see whether they give Fox one too or being him straight back as the sub.

You'd think that, but the VFL side has the bye this week.

[MattW]

You'd think that, but the VFL side has the bye this week.

Thanks. Huh. Interesting.