West Coast, North Melbourne, Hawthorne.... Sydney

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  • Bloody Hell
    Senior Player
    • Oct 2006
    • 3085

    Swans chat West Coast, North Melbourne, Hawthorne.... Sydney

    Surprised to be in 15th position, honestly didn't think we were that bad, but I look at what's above us on the ladder and can't objectively say anyone's worse.

    Are we playing for draft picks?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yes I added an "e" to Hawthorn. I have no respect for them.
    The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.
  • SCGonasunnyday
    Warming the Bench
    • Dec 2007
    • 323

    #2
    Plenty of games where we have had a lead and lost. Suspect if we had won every game where we had a decent lead we would be top 4. One good trade and draft period and we are back next year. So yeah - not tanking but also - not……. not …..

    Argggh - as fans we want to win every game we play and also so do the coaches

    Comment

    • Thunder Shaker
      Aut vincere aut mori
      • Apr 2004
      • 4150

      #3
      We are a bit lower due to the bye rounds.

      Carlton are 14th but have played one more game. They are only ahead of us due to their draw with Richmond. GWS are four spots higher for similar reasons (one extra game).

      We are one of the last sides to play West Coast, whom we have at home next weekend. We should beat them. If we do, we will pass Carlton and GWS on the ladder because they both have byes next week. We would be 13th on the ladder, and could go as high as 11th if Fremantle lose to Essendon and Gold Coast lose to Hawthorn (both happening is unlikely).

      So fretting about being 15th on the ladder is not really justified.

      Even if it were, let's compare a few other sides:

      * Richmond made the finals in 2013, 2014 and 2015. In 2016 they missed the finals, finishing 13th. They won three of the next four premierships.
      * Melbourne made the finals in 2018. In 2019, they finished 17th and in 2020 they finished ninth. They won the premiership the following year.
      * Collingwood made the finals in 2018, 2019 and 2020. In 2021, they finished 17th. They made the finals last year with a top-4 finish and are well placed for another top-4 finish.

      Sides can have an occasional bad year in between seasons where they make the finals and do well.
      "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

      Comment

      • mcs
        Travelling Swannie!!
        • Jul 2007
        • 8149

        #4
        The close losses certainly have hurt our season badly. I just don't think we've put together much in the way of consistent football. Good odd quarters here and there, a couple of decent overall performances, but little consistency.

        We aren't playing for picks, but likewise it could be wise to be trying to finish bottom 6 ideally to get a softer draw next year.

        Teams that are, in a broad sense inexperienced/young (as we are - though with some very experienced leaders and older players) can often be very much up and down for a few years before reaching consistency in their performance levels.
        "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

        Comment

        • 707
          Veterans List
          • Aug 2009
          • 6204

          #5
          Look at the % of teams, we are well above 15th on that.

          Bottom six draw in 2024, top six pick in the ND, with our injury list I'll take both at this stage of the season, not fussed.

          Comment

          • Blood Fever
            Veterans List
            • Apr 2007
            • 4040

            #6
            Things can change much more quickly these days year to year. Makes competition more interesting.

            Comment

            • Thunder Shaker
              Aut vincere aut mori
              • Apr 2004
              • 4150

              #7
              Originally posted by mcs
              The close losses certainly have hurt our season badly. I just don't think we've put together much in the way of consistent football. Good odd quarters here and there, a couple of decent overall performances, but little consistency.

              We aren't playing for picks, but likewise it could be wise to be trying to finish bottom 6 ideally to get a softer draw next year.

              Teams that are, in a broad sense inexperienced/young (as we are - though with some very experienced leaders and older players) can often be very much up and down for a few years before reaching consistency in their performance levels.
              We lost to GWS by one point, to Port by two points. The Port loss happened after we played the last half without a functional backline, and was only by two points to a side that has not lost a game since. Honourable loss?

              We're not running out games well, but as I've previously pointed out, we have been decimated by injuries. When we're playing with 20 players and they are playing with 22 it affects performance.

              Occasional injury-depleted seasons happen. We have been fortunate not to experience too many of those.
              "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

              Comment

              • Pigeon
                On the Rookie List
                • Jul 2016
                • 1

                #8
                Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
                We lost to GWS by one point, to Port by two points. The Port loss happened after we played the last half without a functional backline, and was only by two points to a side that has not lost a game since. Honourable loss?

                We're not running out games well, but as I've previously pointed out, we have been decimated by injuries. When we're playing with 20 players and they are playing with 22 it affects performance.

                Occasional injury-depleted seasons happen. We have been fortunate not to experience too many of those.
                I seem to recall a statistic from a few years ago regarding close losses. Losses in close games were followed by an increased ladder position in future years, presumably as teams get the experience from those close finishes and get better at winning them. Given the age and experience profiles of our last few games we would certainly expect to win these games next year and that would have a significant impact on our ladder position.


                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                Comment

                • BRS328
                  Warming the Bench
                  • Feb 2018
                  • 342

                  #9
                  Agree with you Thunder Shaker.

                  In the Port game we lost both McCartins early in the second quarter, and if you recall Port got two goals in the last quarter from free kicks that were possibly on the generous side.

                  The main problem we have experienced this year is injuries early in games, most critically it has been the taller players which has unbalanced the side.

                  It seems we are going through a cycle of two injuries each game for extended periods, and only getting one back.

                  We had a great run last year, and these things seem to go in cycles.

                  The other factor may also be the length of the season in 2022 with a young and developing list. Some of the teams doing well this year had an extra 5 weeks off due to the contentious weeks rest before the finals compared to the teams that participate in the grand final. Just what difference it makes I am not sure, but recovery from injury in a shortened pre season may be a factor

                  Comment

                  • Blood Fever
                    Veterans List
                    • Apr 2007
                    • 4040

                    #10
                    Good post. We over achieved last year considering our age profile and have had zero luck this year.

                    Comment

                    • Kafka's Ghost
                      Regular in the Side
                      • Sep 2017
                      • 899

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Blood Fever
                      Good post. We over achieved last year considering our age profile and have had zero luck this year.
                      Spot on. Losing most of the defence in one match, then most of the tall forwards, then Mills and McDonald in the Freo match when we’d started quite brightly has been all our bad luck coming at once. Last year we barely made a change after the Essendon loss, until the Prelim when Reid went down. Our bad luck started then, and the wheel has to turn eventually.


                      Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

                      Comment

                      • stevoswan
                        Veterans List
                        • Sep 2014
                        • 8543

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Pigeon
                        I seem to recall a statistic from a few years ago regarding close losses. Losses in close games were followed by an increased ladder position in future years, presumably as teams get the experience from those close finishes and get better at winning them. Given the age and experience profiles of our last few games we would certainly expect to win these games next year and that would have a significant impact on our ladder position.
                        Welcome to RWO Pigeon.....great first post.

                        Comment

                        • giant
                          Veterans List
                          • Mar 2005
                          • 4731

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Bloody Hell
                          Surprised to be in 15th position, honestly didn't think we were that bad, but I look at what's above us on the ladder and can't objectively say anyone's worse.

                          Are we playing for draft picks?

                          - - - Updated - - -

                          Yes I added an "e" to Hawthorn. I have no respect for them.
                          Confess I had the same eyebrow-raising moment when I saw the ladder. Some sensible explanations below, but overall don't think it's a fair reflection of where we're at (just as perhaps Grand Finallist may not have been a fair reflection last year).

                          And henceforth I'll be misspelling the names of all people/entities/objects that I disdain (or at least using that excuse).

                          Comment

                          • Bloody Hell
                            Senior Player
                            • Oct 2006
                            • 3085

                            #14
                            Originally posted by giant
                            Confess I had the same eyebrow-raising moment when I saw the ladder. Some sensible explanations below, but overall don't think it's a fair reflection of where we're at (just as perhaps Grand Finallist may not have been a fair reflection last year).

                            And henceforth I'll be misspelling the names of all people/entities/objects that I disdain (or at least using that excuse).
                            Not as surprising now. Looks like we are a bottom 4 team.
                            The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

                            Comment

                            • Thunder Shaker
                              Aut vincere aut mori
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 4150

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Bloody Hell
                              Not as surprising now. Looks like we are a bottom 4 team.
                              The number of premiership points between 5th and 15th: 10.

                              The number of premiership points between 15th and 16th: 10.

                              "Bottom four" is meaningless this year. There is a clear bottom three, but it's more accurate to say we're simply the 11th team out of the 11 teams that are competing for the bottom four spots in the finals. I doubt we will make the finals (it would require a serious improvement of form), and I think we'll finish between 11th and 14th. Be will have a say over which other teams make the finals because we play six of those other ten teams.
                              "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

                              Comment

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