Rnd 17 - vs Richmond at MCG, 7:20 PM, Thursday 6 July 2023

[i'm-uninformed2]

Here's the full update.

I've got no problem with them managing Joel given his injury history. Plus, I think this will be the last time we play at the MCG this year, so the romantic in me loves the idea of Bud getting the farewell outing there he deserves. Even if he's not announcing anything, I'm sure the crowd will know and acknowledge him at the right time in the right way.

Also good to read Roberts will get some managed game time in the VFL this week, and Ladhams back into full training next week.

No real clarity in here on Chad's timeline.

Update provided on Lance Franklin

[Jimitron5000]

One of the Tigers debutants is Jacob Bauer who was in the Swans academy before moving to Adelaide to play SANFL and then being drafted by Richmond. Hopefully he has a good career, but an average debut.

[Maltopia]

(Snip)

I think this will be the last time we play at the MCG this year, so the romantic in me loves the idea of Bud getting the farewell outing there he deserves. Even if he's not announcing anything, I'm sure the crowd will know and acknowledge him at the right time in the right way.

(Snip)

Assuming we don’t make finals and that Buddy retires, every away game for the rest of the season will be the last time Buddy plays at the venue. From here, we play one more regular season game at the MCG, Marvel, Optus etc.

[KSAS]

Reading the latest Club injury update it appears Buddy (available & will play) will come in for Amartey, who's load is being managed (hamstring awareness).

Edit: Apologies this has already been posted, which i'd missed.

[Roadrunner]

Possibly a wet MCG on Thursday night, I’m not sure if Tom Mac should be brought back in, especially as neither Pelican or Francis deserves to be dropped. But trust the selectors!????

In: Buddy
Out: Amartey
Sub: Corey

[Thunder Shaker]

Our season hangs by a thread, and we will have to win most games from here on in to make the eight. Whilst we won't tank, I think it is highly unlikely we will overtake five teams ahead of us when we are three wins (or two wins and a draw) out of the eight with only seven games to go.

8th is Essendon with 32 points, we currently have 26. That's one and a half wins. It's also eight games to go, not seven (23 games total this year).

Our remaining games are against the teams currently sitting 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 15th (Richmond this week). That's a lot of eight-point games. If we win "most games", it will have the effect of handing losses to these teams. This closes the gap on each of these teams by one game.

So the task is simple: keep winning games. If we win six of eight games, we have a decent chance. (I think we will miss the finals, ending with about 10 or 11 wins and finishing about 10th.)

[Maltopia]

8th is Essendon with 32 points, we currently have 26. That's one and a half wins. It's also eight games to go, not seven (23 games total this year).

Our remaining games are against the teams currently sitting 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 15th (Richmond this week). That's a lot of eight-point games. If we win "most games", it will have the effect of handing losses to these teams. This closes the gap on each of these teams by one game.

So the task is simple: keep winning games. If we win six of eight games, we have a decent chance. (I think we will miss the finals, ending with about 10 or 11 wins and finishing about 10th.)

Oops late night post and got three things wrong!

Said Friday instead of Thursday, number of games out of the top eight, and remaining games.

Based on performance, I think I should be an out for the Round 18 team list post!

[Thunder Shaker]

Buddy's MCG farewell? Superstar Swan in for must-win clash (afl.com.au)
Not the official teams. Franklin in, Amartey managed. Chad Warner will miss another week.

[AB Swannie]

8th is Essendon with 32 points, we currently have 26. That's one and a half wins. It's also eight games to go, not seven (23 games total this year).

Our remaining games are against the teams currently sitting 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 15th (Richmond this week). That's a lot of eight-point games. If we win "most games", it will have the effect of handing losses to these teams. This closes the gap on each of these teams by one game.

So the task is simple: keep winning games. If we win six of eight games, we have a decent chance. (I think we will miss the finals, ending with about 10 or 11 wins and finishing about 10th.)

It’s actually crazy to think how close we have actually been to being right in the hunt. 2.5 wins from top 4 which seems a lot but when you consider the small losses against Port and GWS combined with the Geelong draw it’s not that far fetched. Of course, we couldn’t take our chances there and it might be the story of our season but the macro view suggests we are still a good side who can cause some real damage when we combine good form with best 22 available.

[707]

Francis has been much better than many believe. Has held a string of quality KF's to meagre outings, just quietly does his job. Nice dilemma to have, a fit Tom McCartin with Francis and Melican going along nicely.

Other than a couple of really poor games, we've done very well for the injury riddled season endured. Could easily be and should have been 2.5 further up the table.

[BRS328]

I agree with you on Francis. He reads the play well and has a good “spring” and timing when defending in packs.

I have also been pleasantly surprised by Melican since his return from injury. We all know his injury history, and I think many of us (me included) had his papers stamped at the end of this year. It is no secret he was on the trade table last year without any taker’s. If he gets through the rest of the season unscathed, and retains his form he will get a contract extension.

Probably not good news for Arnold given his rookie status

[RogueSwan]

... I think if his knee has recovered, they will play him ahead of Almartey or McClean who were very ineffective. Almartey in particular needs to be able to take overhead marks....

So you are saying replace someone struggling with overhead marks with someone who struggles with overhead marks?

[Thunder Shaker]

Francis has been much better than many believe. Has held a string of quality KF's to meagre outings, just quietly does his job. Nice dilemma to have, a fit Tom McCartin with Francis and Melican going along nicely.

Other than a couple of really poor games, we've done very well for the injury riddled season endured. Could easily be and should have been 2.5 further up the table.

A draw, a 1-point loss and a 2-point loss are those 2.5 games.

Here is what the ladder looks like as a bar chart. ?? = 1 win

?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 52 Collingwood
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 52 Port Adelaide
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 44 Brisbane Lions
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 36 Melbourne
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 36 St Kilda
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 36 Western Bulldogs
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 32 Adelaide
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 32 Essendon
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? 30 Geelong
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 28 GWS Giants
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 28 Fremantle
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 28 Gold Coast
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? 26 Sydney Swans
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? 26 Carlton
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ? 26 Richmond
?? ?? ?? ?? 16 Hawthorn
?? ?? 8 North Melbourne
?? 4 West Coast

Take away the top 3 and bottom 3 teams, and it is a very even season. Only two and a half games separate 4th from 15th.

To be in with a chance despite the mid-season injuries shows the underlying strength of the list. Now we've just got to keep them on the park.

[i'm-uninformed2]

I agree with you on Francis. He reads the play well and has a good “spring” and timing when defending in packs.

I have also been pleasantly surprised by Melican since his return from injury. We all know his injury history, and I think many of us (me included) had his papers stamped at the end of this year. It is no secret he was on the trade table last year without any taker’s. If he gets through the rest of the season unscathed, and retains his form he will get a contract extension.

Probably not good news for Arnold given his rookie status

I've always liked Melican's best. His challenge has been his injury history, and the odd brain fade game.

I 'suspect' he is in Tom Mc's spot as the tall, lockdown defender (as opposed to the role Francis plays, which is a bit looser and seeking to intercept). But given last week was arguably one of the best three games of Melican's career, I'm not sure how you drop him. And I'm not suggesting we keep Tom Mc out for a second. So probably, Francis it is to go out.

[Scottee]

I've always liked Melican's best. His challenge has been his injury history, and the odd brain fade game.

I 'suspect' he is in Tom Mc's spot as the tall, lockdown defender (as opposed to the role Francis plays, which is a bit looser and seeking to intercept). But given last week was arguably one of the best three games of Melican's career, I'm not sure how you drop him. And I'm not suggesting we keep Tom Mc out for a second. So probably, Francis it is to go out.

Tom Mc can play forward, but I guess that's not happening.

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