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Velvet Gloves Matty will play his 200th game next week, which isn't bad for someone who only turned 27 two months ago. His three goals last night took his career total to 717. Plugger's goalkicking record has never looked safer.
Velvet's goalkicking average is 3.60 (accurate to two decimal places). That rate is slightly misleading, however - his early years, as with most players, were not as productive as his peak seasons. This makes his career average a little bit below what a true representative figure of his career would be.
To iron out that problem, and find a more accurate idea of how much longer Lloyd needs to play for in order to take Lockett's record, I've divided his career into blocks of 50 games, and calculating his goals per game for each of these quartiles:
Games 1-50: 121 goals (2.42gpg).
51-100: 211 goals (4.22gpg)
101-150: 199 goals (3.98gpg)
151-199: 186 goals - we'll be generous, given his current form, and say he'll kick 4 goals in his 200th game to make it 190 (3.8gpg)
I am weighting these four 50-game blocks as follows:
Games 1-50: 10% of adjusted goal average (2.42 x .1 = .242)
51-100: 20% of adjusted goal average (4.22 x .2 = .844)
101-150: 30% of adjusted goal average (3.98 x .3 = 1.194)
151-200: 40% of adjusted goal average (3.8 x .4 = 1.52)
Adding those together, we come up with an adjusted goal average of 3.8 goals per game. Now, let's be generous, once again, and assume that Lloyd can maintain that average for the rest of his career. At 721 goals (allowing for the four that he hypothetically kicks in his next game), Lloyd is 639 goals behind Lockett. At 3.8 goals per game, he would therefore need to play another 169 games to pass Plugger.
Assuming that Essendon a) do not make the finals this year, and b) average one final per year for the rest of Velvet's career, and that Lloyd is able to play every match, he will play his 369th game in round 22, 2012. He will be 34 years old.
However, Lloyd is not Adem Yze or Jared Crouch. He does miss matches, and it is reasonable to assume that he will continue to do so. From 1997 (the year he became a senior regular) to 2004, Velvet missed 18 games (an average of 2.25). For simplicity (and because it will not make a material difference), we will ignore his three missed games from 12 matches in 2005.
So, if he continues to miss 2.25 matches per season, he will miss 16 matches along the way to game number 369. This would mean he would pass Plugger's record in round 15, 2013 - at age 35. Even this, however, is not necessarily accurate.
As you'll see above, Lloyd has passed his peak. His return in his third 50 games fell by 5.2%, and 4.5% in his fourth 50 games. While there is no guarantee that this trend will continue, with Essendon's weakened midfield and Lloyd's ageing body, it is reasonable to assume that there will be continue to be some decline.
For simplicity, we will say that his returns will decline by 5% each 50 games (ie, that he will continue to decline at a similar rate to his last 100 games). Given this, he will reach the following goal tallies at each milestone game:
250 games: 902 goals (181 goals in last 50 games)
300 games: 1,074 goals (172 goals in last 50 games)
350 games: 1,237 goals (163 goals in last 50 games)
400 games: 1,392 goals (155 goals in last 50 games)
As can be inferred, he will still pass Plugger's 1,360 goals before his 400th game, but declining returns of 5% per 50 games will mean he will require 390 matches to kick his 1,361st goal. The extra 21 matches (plus 2 matches that he will miss, according to his average) pushes the scheduled record-breaking game back to round 15, 2014. Velvet will be 36 years of age when this happens.
All of this assumes that he has no major injuries and that Essendon's game plan will continue to revolve around Lloyd and Lucas as key forwards. In order to pass Lockett, Lloyd will have to reach a games tally previously reached by only two other players in the history of the game, and will need to play for 20 seasons. I think that Plugger will continue to hold his record for many years to come.
Velvet's goalkicking average is 3.60 (accurate to two decimal places). That rate is slightly misleading, however - his early years, as with most players, were not as productive as his peak seasons. This makes his career average a little bit below what a true representative figure of his career would be.
To iron out that problem, and find a more accurate idea of how much longer Lloyd needs to play for in order to take Lockett's record, I've divided his career into blocks of 50 games, and calculating his goals per game for each of these quartiles:
Games 1-50: 121 goals (2.42gpg).
51-100: 211 goals (4.22gpg)
101-150: 199 goals (3.98gpg)
151-199: 186 goals - we'll be generous, given his current form, and say he'll kick 4 goals in his 200th game to make it 190 (3.8gpg)
I am weighting these four 50-game blocks as follows:
Games 1-50: 10% of adjusted goal average (2.42 x .1 = .242)
51-100: 20% of adjusted goal average (4.22 x .2 = .844)
101-150: 30% of adjusted goal average (3.98 x .3 = 1.194)
151-200: 40% of adjusted goal average (3.8 x .4 = 1.52)
Adding those together, we come up with an adjusted goal average of 3.8 goals per game. Now, let's be generous, once again, and assume that Lloyd can maintain that average for the rest of his career. At 721 goals (allowing for the four that he hypothetically kicks in his next game), Lloyd is 639 goals behind Lockett. At 3.8 goals per game, he would therefore need to play another 169 games to pass Plugger.
Assuming that Essendon a) do not make the finals this year, and b) average one final per year for the rest of Velvet's career, and that Lloyd is able to play every match, he will play his 369th game in round 22, 2012. He will be 34 years old.
However, Lloyd is not Adem Yze or Jared Crouch. He does miss matches, and it is reasonable to assume that he will continue to do so. From 1997 (the year he became a senior regular) to 2004, Velvet missed 18 games (an average of 2.25). For simplicity (and because it will not make a material difference), we will ignore his three missed games from 12 matches in 2005.
So, if he continues to miss 2.25 matches per season, he will miss 16 matches along the way to game number 369. This would mean he would pass Plugger's record in round 15, 2013 - at age 35. Even this, however, is not necessarily accurate.
As you'll see above, Lloyd has passed his peak. His return in his third 50 games fell by 5.2%, and 4.5% in his fourth 50 games. While there is no guarantee that this trend will continue, with Essendon's weakened midfield and Lloyd's ageing body, it is reasonable to assume that there will be continue to be some decline.
For simplicity, we will say that his returns will decline by 5% each 50 games (ie, that he will continue to decline at a similar rate to his last 100 games). Given this, he will reach the following goal tallies at each milestone game:
250 games: 902 goals (181 goals in last 50 games)
300 games: 1,074 goals (172 goals in last 50 games)
350 games: 1,237 goals (163 goals in last 50 games)
400 games: 1,392 goals (155 goals in last 50 games)
As can be inferred, he will still pass Plugger's 1,360 goals before his 400th game, but declining returns of 5% per 50 games will mean he will require 390 matches to kick his 1,361st goal. The extra 21 matches (plus 2 matches that he will miss, according to his average) pushes the scheduled record-breaking game back to round 15, 2014. Velvet will be 36 years of age when this happens.
All of this assumes that he has no major injuries and that Essendon's game plan will continue to revolve around Lloyd and Lucas as key forwards. In order to pass Lockett, Lloyd will have to reach a games tally previously reached by only two other players in the history of the game, and will need to play for 20 seasons. I think that Plugger will continue to hold his record for many years to come.
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