Can we win the flag ?

[Bart]

In short I think we can if:

We can achieve a top 2 spot (but must be top 4).

Keep injury free in the last few rounds.

Get Doyle back.

Put teams away in the last few rounds and gain more confidence. Many many games this year have been won after letting the opposition back into the game.

[Ganjaman]

Its a big call Bart, but I must agree, we gotta be top 4 at least. It certainly is possible cause we are way up there so we have to be a chance. Our form this year has been great.

If we can keep winning why bloody not? But we must improve and finish the regular season strongly. Only that will get us into the top four anyway.

[jixygirl]

Top Four would be fantastic because we'll still be in the finals in the second week, no matter what happens. However, we first need to finish the Home and Away season strongly and not let the opposition back in with a chance so we can gain a top four position.

[SXP]

My sentiment as well jixygirl, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Game against Carlton hasn't helped the perception the public has about the Swans and their fade outs come September (96 is no exception).
I'll be happy if their finish in the top 4, but we'll know that in a couple of weeks.

[juliec]

Just Maybe we can

Well who knows if we can win the premiership,, but I am thinking just maybe we can,,, I have really got this great thought that we have had luck on our side, all the breaks seem to be going our way and God I am starting to get very excited

[Bart]

Originally posted by SXP
My sentiment as well jixygirl, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.

Understand that, and certainly that has been Roosy's approach, but we are SECOND on the ladder. As long as we keep playing team football, and don't deviate from our approach in the finals, we are a chance.


Does anyone feel they have to pinch themselves at times ?

[Ganjaman]

Originally posted by Bart
Does anyone feel they have to pinch themselves at times ?

Yep! Just about every week this year Bart. With all the dire predictions I did'nt think we would do anywhere near this well.

[Rod_]

Doyle, fixter and Seymour available and no injuries to others - Fresh legs and youthfull exuberance

A little luck with where we finish (top4 - prefable 1st or 2nd better)

Anything can happen

I think that Port is the team to beat and few others are to look out for..... (Brisy, Pies and Crows)

I do think that we can win but need a little good luck with injuries and where we finish to give it a good go.

Go all the way Swannies!!!

Rod_

[Rizzo]

Two final games would be great experience for the young guys. This is all I'm hoping for at the moment.

[dawson]

Hope we can do it this time. We were close before.......

In 1997, we were a better team than the one of 1996.

In Round 19 of that year, and with Plugger and Dale Lewis suspended, we were leading St Kilda by 40-something points early in the last quarter before they over-ran us to win by nine points.

They halted our home ground winning streak at 20 and then and there I knew that we had lost more then just four points.

We would split the next two games before playing Geelong on a Saturday night in Round 22. The Cats had our measure all night and won by 10 points.

Bulldogs ambushed us in that final and it was all over.

From a potential two home finals, we were suddenly on our bums.


1998, was a strange old season and we still had enough left in the tank to have a tilt......

Won our first five but then lost at home to the D's in a wet won.
Were smashed by St Kilda at home by 100 points.
Paul Kelly did his knee (thanks Donald Dickie!)
And lost to Bulldogs by 2 points when Magic was decapitated in front of goal and no free kick.

Anyhow finished 3rd - edged out St Kilda in a close final.
Played Adelaide a week later and still remember how 20 minutes before the game was about to start, out of nowhere it suddenly pissed down like nothing I've ever seen before. Just poured and poured.

Adelaide came out and smashed Cressa and Magic, leaving Eade to move Plugger on the ball to get a kick.

They went on to win the flag.

So whilst we are right up there - we have been up there before. We need everything to go right and nothing to go wrong. Although saying that, teams have still prevailed with things going wrong (Modra getting injured, Beau McDonald out after 1 minute of grand final)

Guess you dont know what is important until you look back.

[Jon]

Considering the opposition we face - 4 top 8 sides and a team in good form - if we win 5 of our last 6, we'd have to be genuine contenders. 5 wins would show that we can beat the best no matter where we play.

If we only manage 4 wins or worse (likely considering the Adel and Brisbane games are away, and Collingwood's form of late) then you'd have to say the question mark still hangs over us a bit.

Right now I'd settle for a win against Freo. The rest of the season will take care of itself one way or another.

[Steve]

It is an interesting topic and one I was thinking of starting a thread on.

If we win on Sunday we will be half a win behind where we were after Rd 17 in 1996:

After Rd 17, 1996:
Wins: 12.5
%: 118.80
Ladder Pos: 2
Wins b/w Rds 17-22: 4

After Rd 17, 2003:
Wins: 12
%: +/- 119.43
Ladder Pos: 2
Wins b/w Rds 17-22: 4 is the common prediction

From the side that played Carlton last w/e, only 3 players (Sundqvist, Schneider, LRT) hadn't played finals football. Swap Sunny for Maxfield and it's only 2 (if fit Doyle will replace LRT but both haven't played finals anyway).

There are actually 8 players who have GF experience (which includes Seymour and McPherson).

Looking at the other sides, IMO you can write off whichever 2 of North, Freo, Essendon and Hawthorn make the 8. Essendon at full strength in Melb could cause some problems, but if they have to travel they're gawn.

I think Collingwood with their evenness and hardened bodies could easily win a couple of finals, particularly if the dice fall their way in terms of the MCG. But they still lack the class you should need to go all the way.

Brisbane are just looking battle-weary, and I can't see them making it past the Semi-Finals. They'll always be dangerous, but I can see them being run over the top of by a quick, fresh side like us or WC.

Personally I'm not totally convinced about Adelaide - recently there has been the 'looking very dangerous', 'in good form at the right time of the year' talk about them, but their 4-straight wins b/w Rds 12-15 were all against sides outside the 8. They've also lost to Hawthorn and Freo either side of that streak, which are sides who will most likely miss out as well.

WC have been a bit hot and cold recently, and they'll need a massive September from their midfield to win finals, particularly if they are away from Perth.

Port look like playing their finals in Adelaide which is a massive bonus, but they won't be able to escape the 'choke factor' which will put huge pressure on them. They just don't like playing contested high-pressure footy, which will always hurt them come finals time.

It really is shaping as a very open finals series, which means a side which is in good form, has few injuries, and has things fall their way in terms of home or MCG finals has a huge chance.

[BAM_BAM]

Originally posted by Steve
It is an interesting topic and one I was thinking of starting a thread on.

If we win on Sunday we will be half a win behind where we were after Rd 17 in 1996:

After Rd 17, 1996:
Wins: 12.5
%: 118.80
Ladder Pos: 2
Wins b/w Rds 17-22: 4

After Rd 17, 2003:
Wins: 12
%: +/- 119.43
Ladder Pos: 2
Wins b/w Rds 17-22: 4 is the common prediction

I just got goose bumps on my goose bumps

[thommoone]

boy i had forgotten about in 96 we only wone 16 games and still came first. Its pretty surprising imho. Ussually first place only loses 3 or 4 games.

[kangle4]

we can do it!!!