Can we win the flag ?

[NMWBloods]

What's amazingly similar to '96 is that there is no real standout opposition team that is roaring favourite. This means that we could potentially go all the way if we play good football.

[j s]

We can do it but whether we we will is a another question.

I always take the positive view (as those who are familiar with me will know - I always keep the last weekend in September free, just in case). This year resembles 96 in many ways but is totally duifferent in others. The similarities are obvious so I won't go into them.

The differences are that in 96 we had a core group of "stars" including some expensive imports (like Roos, Kickett and Lockett) but were perceived (probably accurately) to be weak in depth. We depended on a few players to do most of the work.

This year our strength is in our depth. There are no real stars. We probably have 18 players who, in any given game, could claim to be our BOG. (Voting for the TLM this year is so hard.)

As has been said, we have a tough draw in the remaining games - Freo at home, Pies at SA and Crows, Lions away. plus Hawks at home and Dees away (neither hame will be easy though we should win both).

We should be able to beat Freo. We HAVE to beat the Pies at SA if we want be real contenders. The Lions will be easier without Leppas (and their wheels appear to have fallen off) so maybe we can win the game too.

That just leaves the Crows. If we can win that game (along with the others) then YES we are contenders, and YES we CAN win the GF.

[dawson]

Are we able to win a preliminary final in Melbourne - that is the question.

[j s]

Originally posted by dawson
Are we able to win a preliminary final in Melbourne - that is the question.

If we can't then winning a week later is obviously beyond us!

[Charlie]

If I didn't believe that we could win the premiership from where we are right now... I'd have no reason to follow football.

That's the same reason I'm tipping them in each game at the moment. If I'm not tipping them to win when we are in the top 2... I'm not sure exactly when I would.

[Steve]

North were definitely always going to win it in 1996.

They were losing Prelim Finalists in '94 and '95, Carey was at his peak (82 goals and 8 marks a game in '96) - it was their year.

Their only losses in '96 were to good sides - Brisbane twice (who finished 3rd after Rd 22), Sydney (1st), West Coast (4th) and Geelong (7th). They did also lose to Collingwood but everyone is allowed one stuff-up.

It's history now but I reckon had the current finals system been in place in '96 we wouldn't have made it past week 2 - another example of how important it is for things to fall your way.

[Plugger46]

There is no doubt we can win the flag, our fate is in our own hands, we don't have to rely on results to go our way this year.

I reckon we have to beat Adelaide in adelaide, or Brissy in Brisbane, to win it, that would give us a top 2 spot most likely. Assuming we win the other 4 games of course.

[Plugger46]

Originally posted by Steve
North were definitely always going to win it in 1996.

They were losing Prelim Finalists in '94 and '95, Carey was at his peak (82 goals and 8 marks a game in '96) - it was their year.

Their only losses in '96 were to good sides - Brisbane twice (who finished 3rd after Rd 22), Sydney (1st), West Coast (4th) and Geelong (7th). They did also lose to Collingwood but everyone is allowed one stuff-up.

It's history now but I reckon had the current finals system been in place in '96 we wouldn't have made it past week 2 - another example of how important it is for things to fall your way.

I strongly disagree, I think we were the best side in that year. I recall beating North by 79 pts out at Carlton in Roosy's 300th game. We broke the reigning premiers long run of wins at Optus Oval. We did everything pretty much, except win on the last day in september. Scott Direen and Rocca should've played instead of Frosty and Garlick, for mine. Craig O'Brien going off injured upset the whole balance of the side in the GF, because he was burning up the ground.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Steve
North were definitely always going to win it in 1996.

They were losing Prelim Finalists in '94 and '95, Carey was at his peak (82 goals and 8 marks a game in '96) - it was their year.

Their only losses in '96 were to good sides - Brisbane twice (who finished 3rd after Rd 22), Sydney (1st), West Coast (4th) and Geelong (7th). They did also lose to Collingwood but everyone is allowed one stuff-up.

Not sure if I agree that they were "definitely always going to win it." Certainly they had a very good team and were the best team of the year. However, I don't think they were the dominant standout that appears nearly unbeatable as we've seen in other years. After all, we were running pretty close in the second quarter and who knows what could have happened if the couple of mis-kicks by Kel had been more accurate, or if O'Brien hadn't been injured.

It's history now but I reckon had the current finals system been in place in '96 we wouldn't have made it past week 2 - another example of how important it is for things to fall your way.

Why? Wouldn't we have played West Coast and then probably Essendon anyway?

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Plugger46
Scott Direen and Rocca should've played instead of Frosty and Garlick, for mine.

I'd have to disagree with this. Rocca was useless with us and McPherson was more effective at gaining possessions than Direen.

[robbieando]

Originally posted by Plugger46
I strongly disagree, I think we were the best side in that year.

We wern't, we were very lucky to get top spot in the end. If we had lost in the last round we would of finished 4th. So I very much doubt we were the best team that year and we certainly don't have a premiership cup sitting in Driver Ave from it.

I recall beating North by 79 pts out at Carlton in Roosy's 300th game. We broke the reigning premiers long run of wins at Optus Oval.

Yes this was a good win, but one that was very much unexpected even given our good form leading up to the match. The Carlton, was the making of the team and a brave one considering Lockett had an off day and was a pointer to what would happen later on in the year without him.

We did everything pretty much, except win on the last day in september.

We were very very very very lucky to make it in the first place. Our last month of the season, brought us a few close wins and a close loss to Essendon and don't forget if it wasn't for Dunstall doing his knee we most likely would of gone without the week off. The Essendon Final we shouldn't of won from where we were with 4 minutes left. We got out of a hole like we did so offen that season.

Scott Direen and Rocca should've played instead of Frosty and Garlick, for mine.

Direen wasn't fit enough to play and hadn't played since Round 4. Rocca didn't put in once while at the club and playing him in the Grand Final, would of cost us much earlier in the match. Frosty that year was one of our best and Garlick was a handy goalkicker off the bench. I was happy with the line up.

Craig O'Brien going off injured upset the whole balance of the side in the GF, because he was burning up the ground.

In fact he wasn't, and he went off early in the first quarter. At that stage we were playing the better football. What cost us was Kelly deciding to pass to Lockett instead of having a shot himself. He missed Lockett with the pass, North got the ball and ran up the field to kick a much needed goal. Instead of being something like 5 goals up, we were 3 goals up and North got on a roll. I don't say we lost a Grand Final by 43 points, I say we lost by 5cm.

Going into the match North were the heavy favouties, so to say we were the better team is a false fantacy. We got lucky in 1996 and road the luck all the way to the Grand Final. In retrospek, we peaked too early and in the years to come paid for it by believing a premiership was 1 or 2 players away and we kept believing this for 5 years.

[NMWBloods]

In fact he wasn't, and he went off early in the first quarter. At that stage we were playing the better football.

But the critical thing is that early in the game Luffy was key at CHF, which you really need on the MCG. When Archer went onto him and shut him down we lost another avenue to goal, which O'Brien could have filled.

[Destructive]

It's all very dicey at the moment. We are 2nd and except for the odd second half fadeout we've been playing very well. Naturally I'd love for us to win the flag, but it's too early to tell.

[Steve]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Why? Wouldn't we have played West Coast and then probably Essendon anyway?

The old system of 1st vs 8th etc meant that we were able to play a side who just snuck into the finals with only 11.5 wins.

We didn't miss Lockett as much in the Rd 22 game which was in the wet, but I reckon based on the way we struggled to beat an average side in Hawthorn, WC (who won that next week by 50+) would most likely have beaten us.

The way things panned out we were lucky to beat Essendon after having a weeks break, and with Lockett back in the side (not that he was anywhere near fit). Had we played them a week earlier I'm not so sure it would have been a positive result.

But that's just my opinion, and I guess who cares anyway with the way things turned out.

[liz]

My attitude to this season hasn't changed for the last couple of months - its great fun to have the team winning and I'm enjoying it while it lasts. Hopefully it will last a bit longer, and if we progress in the finals, fantastic. But it wasn't what most of us were expecting at the start of the season, and I refuse to be (too) disappointed if we don't quite measure up this year.

The positives are that even the best team in the competition looks a bit vulnerable - Brisbane of the past two years or Essendon the two before that would not have lost to Geelong.

West Coast are suffering a few injuries at the moment - Fletcher and Gardiner have been very important players for them this year. Although these two should be back in time for finals, their loss might cause the Eagles to slip a few places by then, and if they have to travel it will be that much harder for them.

You can't write the Lions off but they do seem to be struggling at the moment, and Leppitsch out for a few is a big loss for them. I can't see them finishing top 2 and it will be that much tougher for them from lower down.

Our two vulnerabilities at the moment are, IMO, depth and size. We have been pretty much blessed with injuries compared to the other top sides. We've shown we're able to cover a couple of O'Loughlin, Cresswell, Maxfield, Williams for short periods but if we lose a few of our top dozen there's not much in reserve at the moment. Schneider apart, few of the youngsters look ready to play more than cameo roles off the bench and we can't afford to have too many of them in the team at once, particularly when it gets tougher in the finals.

Size is an issue for us - and I'm not just talking height down back. If you stand the entire Swans squad next to almost any of the other top 8 contenders we look physically dwarfed, bulkwise as well as height. If we can continue to mostly play games on our terms - ie where speed and quick transferance of play are key - it won't matter too much. But come finals time games tend to get more physical and do the Swans have the bodies to stand up in these conditions over 3 or 4 weeks of finals? Pound for pound the Swans' aggression, tackling etc are very very good - but on an absolute level we will be outmuscled by Port, Brisbane, Adelaide, Brisbane certainly, while its probably line-ball against the Pies and Weagles.