Fremantle, Port and *cough* Essendon are our friends

[Charlie]

If they win next week, we still get our top 4, as long as we ourselves get our act together.

Freo beat WC - WC stranded on 13 wins, below us. Freo on 14, but with far inferior % - also below us.

Port beat Adelaide - Crows stranded on 13 wins, below us.

Essendon beat Collingwood - risky, but I'm banking on us winning by a better margin than them. They could potentially go ahead on %, but playing them is our best chance of dodging Adelaide, who I really don't want to play.

How I *hope* (not game to say expect) it will pan out:

Port Adelaide
Collingwood
Brisbane
Sydney
Essendon
Fremantle
Adelaide
West Coast

Therefore:
PORT beat Sydney
BRISBANE beat Collingwood (we can hope)
ESSENDON beat West Coast
FREMANTLE beat Adelaide

SYDNEY beat Essendon
COLLINGWOOD beat Fremantle

Setting up Preliminaries between:
Port and Collingwood
Sydney and Brisbane AT THE MCG.

I don't think the Lions should hold any fear for us.

Alternatively, but this is much less likely, Sydney roll Port and get through to the prelim straight away, in which case we'd want Collingwood to beat Brisbane, thus getting a home prelim. I can't really see that happening.

[sharpie]

I think the Essendon v Collingwood match is irrelevant to our top 4 chances. We have to beat Melbourne and hope that Port beat the Crows and Freo beat WC. Each of these are possibilities.

[Charlie]

The Rich Scum versus the Poor Scum isn't particularly important to our chances of top four... more important in keeping Adelaide at the other end of the draw. If they are no higher than sixth, we shouldn't encounter them. I'd prefer that.

[sydnophile]

Originally posted by Charlie
The Rich Scum versus the Poor Scum isn't particularly important to our chances of top four

YES IT IS. (I assume you mean Essendon vs Collingwood.)

Essendon are currently on the SAME POINTS as us (52). We are only ahead of them by a smidgin of a percent.
If Essendon win they could end up toppling up on percentage.
If C'wood beat them it gets Essendon off our back!

[j s]

Second place is still a mathematical possibility (but it's not going to happen)

Requires us to wallop the Dees by enough.
Brisbane to lose to the Doggies
Bombers to beat Pies by just the right amount
Freo to beat WC (assuming WC win today)
Crows to lose to Port.

[liz]

I'll definitely be willing collingwood to victory next week, probably for the first time ever.

Firstly, our % margin over Essendon is too small for us to want them to win.

Secondly Collingwood finishing 2nd guarantees we'll get a home final even if we finish 6th. If Brisbane and Collingwood swap places, West Coast win the derby and Adelaide the showdown, even if we stay ahead of Essendon I think we'll land up playing them down in Melbourne, unless the AFL banks.

[Mike_B]

Originally posted by lizz
I'll definitely be willing collingwood to victory next week, probably for the first time ever.

Firstly, our % margin over Essendon is too small for us to want them to win.

Secondly Collingwood finishing 2nd guarantees we'll get a home final even if we finish 6th. If Brisbane and Collingwood swap places, West Coast win the derby and Adelaide the showdown, even if we stay ahead of Essendon I think we'll land up playing them down in Melbourne, unless the AFL banks.

I believe the AFL has daid they are willing to bank even in week 1 now. But having said that, it wouldn't surprise me if they change their minds again - they've done that so many times on this issue in the past couple of weeks, I'm not going to pre-empt finals locations until the AFL releases their finals fixtures list next Sunday evening.

[hammo]

Re: Fremantle, Port and *cough* Essendon are our friends

Originally posted by Charlie


I don't think the Lions should hold any fear for us.

I know we've beaten them twice but they are a class outfit who should be feared.

[j s]

Originally posted by lizz
Firstly, our % margin over Essendon is too small for us to want them to win.

Don't forget that our % should improve as well. Anyway, all that is out our hands. All we have to do is wallop the Dees by as much as we can and then see what happens elsewhere. as log as we win each of the other events I mentioned will improve our position by one place.

[robbieando]

If we win next week, we will finish 4th or 5th depending on the Showdown result. If Adelaide win we finish 5th, if Port win we finish 4th. Now the other results that I want to happen are Collingwood to beat Essendon, because Essendon are too close on % to us and therefore could jump us even if we win, Freo to beat West Coast because the Eagles % is too great and Brisbane to beat the Bulldogs

Therefore the ladder would likely be

Port Adelaide - 72
Collingwood - 60
Brisbane - 58
Sydney - 56
Fremantle -56
Adelaide - 52
West Coast - 52
Essendon - 52

Therefore Week 1 would be: (Winners in Bold)

PORT ADELAIDE vs Sydney (FP)
Collingwood vs BRISBANE (MCG)
FREMANTLE vs Essendon (S)
ADELAIDE vs West Coast (FP)

Therefore Week 2 would be:

SYDNEY vs Fremantle (TS)
COLLINGWOOD vs Adelaide (MCG)

Therefore Week 3 would be:

PORT ADELAIDE vs Collingwood (FP)
Brisbane vs SYDNEY (MCG)

Therefore the Grand Final will be

PORT ADELAIDE VS SYDNEY (MCG)

[j s]

Right now (half time) the Dees are behind WC but not by much.

[gossipcom]

We need Freo to smash WC next week since WC is heading towards a big win against the Demons at the moment.

[j s]

Originally posted by gossipcom
We need Freo to smash WC next week since WC is heading towards a big win against the Demons at the moment.

Smashing isn't necessary. Just winning will be enough.

[daniel f]

Originally posted by robbieando




)

PORT ADELAIDE vs Sydney (FP)
Collingwood vs BRISBANE (MCG)
FREMANTLE vs Essendon (S)
ADELAIDE vs West Coast (FP)

Therefore Week 2 would be:

SYDNEY vs Fremantle (TS)
COLLINGWOOD vs Adelaide (MCG)

Therefore Week 3 would be:

PORT ADELAIDE vs Collingwood (FP)
Brisbane vs SYDNEY (MCG)

Therefore the Grand Final will be

PORT ADELAIDE VS SYDNEY (MCG)

gee i hope this is how it works out,very interesting,what would a win at fp in the 1st week do for us?

[gossipcom]

If we finished in the top 4 and won the first week of the final then you'd get the week off - because the two highest winners go straight to week 3.

After their demolition of the Demons, the Weagles are now on 119.11% so they're sitting right behind Adelaide.

Originally posted by j s
Smashing isn't necessary. Just winning will be enough.

Whoops realised who had the % factor there.

Okay any win by Fremantle - small one is better plus a Swans win will suffice us.

If Power, Pies, Dockers and Swans all won plus the Brisbane match *hmmm* Swans would go into the 4.

If Brisbane lost and Swans won they'd go into 3rd position and not 4th which would probably suit us more - playing the Pies @ MCG.

I still can't believe that the match last night was the Pies first match outside Melbourne since June.

ETA: Weagles result.