Fremantle, Port and *cough* Essendon are our friends

[Mike_B]

Well, there are 5 games that will impact on the final standings next week: Port v Adel, Ess v Coll, WCE v Freo, Bris v Dogs, Syd v Melb.

Lets make 2 assumptions: Sydney and Brisbane win.

On this basis, the best Sydney could finish would be 4th place provided Freo, Port and Collingwood win.

It is also possible that Sydney could finish 8th, if Sydney lose, Freo win and either Essendon win, or lose by say a goal or less than Sydney.

My brain hurts trying to work out all the permutations. I think we will know a lot more about what we need to do come Saturday after the result of the Bombers Pies game is known.

[j s]

Originally posted by Mike_B
Well, there are 5 games that will impact on the final standings next week: Port v Adel, Ess v Coll, WCE v Freo, Bris v Dogs, Syd v Melb.

Lets make 2 assumptions: Sydney and Brisbane win.

On this basis, the best Sydney could finish would be 4th place provided Freo, Port and Collingwood win.

It is also possible that Sydney could finish 8th, if Sydney lose, Freo win and either Essendon win, or lose by say a goal or less than Sydney.

My brain hurts trying to work out all the permutations. I think we will know a lot more about what we need to do come Saturday after the result of the Bombers Pies game is known.

We can get to 3rd if the Bombers win by the correct margin, big enough that we pass the Pies but not so much that Essendon get ahead of us.

As long as the Bombers margin is less than our margin over Melbourne then we stay in front of them. To get ahead of Collingwood we need roughly 130 points total margin (our winning margin plus their losing margin) so think in terms of 12 goal win by us and 11 goal win by Essendon (or 15 and 8, etc). Unlikely to happen but you never know.

If Crows lose we go ahead of them.

If WC lose we go ahead of them.

The least likely is that Brisbane loses but they do we move ahead of them.

Each of these moves us up one place If all the above occur then we go to second.

[liz]

Originally posted by j s
We can get to 3rd if ...

if...

if...we go to second.

sigh - wouldn't it all have been so much easier had we won yesterday:

[gossipcom]

Originally posted by lizz
sigh - wouldn't it all have been so much easier had we won yesterday:

Definitely

[Damien]

I have to say this thread has cheered me up!!!

Putting it in prespective (and believe me I still haven't forgiven last night!!) - so many people would have laughed at anyone at the start of the year who said that Swans fans would be working out all possible scenarios that would lead us into the top 4 with one game to go........and if I remember correctly, eventual runners up Collingwood had an awful run into the finals in 2002?? who knows what is going to happen!.

It is pretty damn cool we as supporters are able to speculate about this! I remember a year ago all we were worried about was who was coaching us.

[robbieando]

What ever happens we don't want West Coast to win if Adelaide lose because that would more than likely mean a trip to perth in Week 2 of the finals.

[snajik]

The most important part of the equation is that Sydney beat Melbourne.

[barry]

Originally posted by snajik
The most important part of the equation is that Sydney beat Melbourne.

Thats a given. Jeff Whites not playing. They have all their holidays booked leaving Saturday night, and they'd be silly to win this game and lose the priority pick. If we lose to them, we might as well give up this year.

Adelaide should lose to Port, IF Port turn up to play. Port dont need to win, but I'm sure they would treat it seriously one week out of the finals.

Freo are a good chance against WC. Freo are in form, WC out of form, and if Gardiner doesnt play, Freo should start favourites. Freos inferiority complex is a worry though.

Then, if one of those fails, there is always the small chance that Brisbane could lose. They do have the odd hickup.

I would say we have about a 40% chance at 4th, 45% chance at 5th, and the other 15% isnt worth thinking about.

We need 4th!

[barry]

Originally posted by snajik
The most important part of the equation is that Sydney beat Melbourne.

[sharpie]

Lets just hope that about 14 players get hurt or suspended in each of the 2 derbies this weekend (oh, and all of Essendon & Collingwood!)

[BAM_BAM]

a meelee??????

[sharpie]

maybe even a drive-by!

[gossipcom]

Originally posted by barry
Adelaide should lose to Port, IF Port turn up to play. Port dont need to win, but I'm sure they would treat it seriously one week out of the finals.

Apparently Mark Williams wasn't too impressed with Port's play against the Tigers yesterday so we can only hope that motivates them to kick Adelaide's backside <vbg>

Official website have put up the What If's at the moment which looks at all the different possible outcomes after next weekend's matches.

[Rob-bloods]

I agree with Damien, having the southern scribes rank us 16 th, feeling myself we would be ?challenging? for 7th/8th, and really being in a position to, maybe, do some damage in September, is a bright prospect. Remember we were merely making up the numbers after 96 when we played finals, and what an embarrassment when we lost to the Dons in (was it) 99 and we looked like an SFL side against them!

Go Bloods