Outside Prediction

**Cheer Cheer** · 13 January 2004, 02:12 PM

Well I must say I am in agreeance with the fact that our forward setup should be rated in the top 4 at least.
Our defence has seen to be rated favourably in my eyes too, but the back six were a pretty effective unit last year, I think to be rated in the top 6 defenses would be closer to the mark.
The midfield seems to be the most accurate description out of the 3 ratings.

I think top4 should be our aim - with top 6 a realistic finish for us.

One thing I disagree with you barry is an avenue out of goal after a behind - Kenelley, Davis, Williams, Maxfield are all more than adequate replacements for schwass - with davis and williams being above schwass.

**barry** · 13 January 2004, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Cheer Cheer

One thing I disagree with you barry is an avenue out of goal after a behind - Kenelley, Davis, Williams, Maxfield are all more than adequate replacements for schwass - with davis and williams being above schwass.

Maxfield could be the answer you know. He could be shifted back to half back flank/ back pocket as he gets older (ie a straight swap of positions with kennelly), and would be ideal candidate for the kickins as he has a great long kick and a wise head.

Kennelly failed there IMO last year, but would be a good link man further up the field. And Williams and Davis are far more damaging being in-play for the sweep downfield.

**robbieando** · 13 January 2004, 04:00 PM

I think 6th is a fair target for this coming season, I think some of the players who played out of their skin last year will fall back a bit and our defence isn't going to be as good as offen as it was last year. Whatever happens we aren't a given to do as well as last season, nor is it given we will improve. We have to expect a slight fall back and who knows maybe we all can be proven wrong again

**barry** · 13 January 2004, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by robbieando
I think 6th is a fair target for this coming season, I think some of the players who played out of their skin last year will fall back a bit and our defence isn't going to be as good as offen as it was last year. Whatever happens we aren't a given to do as well as last season, nor is it given we will improve. We have to expect a slight fall back and who knows maybe we all can be proven wrong again

Dont quite understand that logic. We've been playing that way since Roos took over. It isnt really "out of their skin".
We should expect a similar year to last year because there have been no influx of players, or departure of players. We are essentially the same team, plus a bit of experience.
While it is quite possible we could slip down, it is equally likely we will step up.

**floppinab** · 13 January 2004, 04:06 PM

I posted in BF that I thought the 11th ranking of our midfield laughable feeling we should be at around 6 or 7.

And putting our defence at 4th I thought was a little too high, again 6 or 7 being around the mark.

Our forward line is arguably up there with the best of the league and should be 3rd or 4th.

as this year teams will be much more aware of the value of Goodes, the skill of Schneider and that their once no name midfield now contains some very handy players in Kirk, Bolton and the vintage Paul Williams.

I still think this is crap, we had knocked off Brissy and Collingwood by ~ Rd. 7 last year. No team will have undestimated the playmakers involved in those wins in the rest of the season if they are half doing their jobs right. I don't see too much changing in the way these players are adressed by our opposition this year.

**liz** · 13 January 2004, 04:30 PM

As Cliff pointed out in another thread, our best 22 does not need to fear anyone if they can recapture last season's form.

Where we are vulnerable is that most of the next rung of players have very little experience and are physically immature. For most of these players we are yet to see whether they have what it takes.

Long term injuries to a couple of Hall, Goodes, Schauble or Bolton could see us struggle.

**swansrock4eva** · 13 January 2004, 05:44 PM

One of the big points to bear in mind though is that there are 15 other teams out there who've had a pre-season to analyse us, the same way we've analysed them. This time last year we were an unknown quantity - new(ish) coach, lots of "underachievers" who were expected to step up etc. The boys confounded the critics last year, but it also means that this year there is a very good chance other coaches will have started developing counter-strategies which could hamper the team's overall effectiveness.

On the other hand, I'm betting Roosey has already put a whole heap of new plans into action and will have everyone working on them to ensure we stump them all again

**ItsAllGoodes** · 13 January 2004, 08:23 PM

i agree with robbie on the fact that 6th is a practical objective....to be a team that makes the finals BUT isnt just making up the numbers. From there the luck of injuries and the unknowns of player form, improvement in young players and declines in the form of older players (as well as the net improvement/decline in opposition teams) will dictate whether we finish any higher

I am relatively happy with the backline being ranked highly...we had one of the lowest tally of points kicked against us of all teams last season. I think at times we focus too much on the absence of real stars down back and that perhaps we have trouble against the likes of carey, jonathan brown and the port power CHF whose name escapes me as i type this (tredrea)....if you look at the backline as a unit and see the names of schauble, bolton, saddington, kennelly, barry, etc it is a very good backline. And if Heath James can become a factor then it improves even more. I also quite like the suggestion that Maxfield and Kennelly swap, except Tadgh can play as a tall down back and Maxfield wouldnt.

In contrast i tend to think it is easy to over-rate our forward line. Certainly there is some fantastic talent down there...hall, o'loughlin, schneider and davis, etc. But the overwhelming statistics from last year were our conversion of inside 50s to scores, and our accuracy. I am not sure we can expect both these things to happen again this season. So to counteract this we have to get the ball forward more...which as I type I realise that I am arguing against myself....actually the forward line IS bloody good...so cancel your replies now...its the midfield and backs who have to get the ball inside 50 more often...and probably score more goals themselves. And if Ball, Goodes and Doyle can combine for more goals than even better

I think it would be an interesting stat to work out how many goals our midfield kicked last year versus say brisbane, collingwood, port and some of the other top teams and those that might challenge. I wouldnt be surprised if we are well under most of them. You can debate which players you include in this but heres one comparison. Jude Bolton, Fosdike, Williams, Kirk and Maxfield - 56 goals in the season proper. Voss, Power, Lappin, Black and Akermanis - 85 goals. They are a totally different set of players (a few Brownlows the difference for a start) but the Brisbane players are more potent, probably spend more time inside 50. This sort of comparison makes me fell better that this years draft selections were good ones

So our midfield has to step up...wouldnt mind opinions on this but if you accept that Kirk is normally going to be a negator, who are the midfield players who are most likely to become more offensive. If you do a Kennelly-Maxfield swap would that give an increase (I think it would). If Williams spent less time down back...would he kick more goals (answer is yes, but is down back where he is now giving the best value?). I think the answer is one Jude Bolton.

Anyways...enough of my ramblings

**chammond** · 13 January 2004, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by swansrock4eva
This time last year we were an unknown quantity - new(ish) coach, lots of "underachievers" who were expected to step up etc. The boys confounded the critics last year, but it also means that this year there is a very good chance other coaches will have started developing counter-strategies which could hamper the team's overall effectiveness.

It certainly helped last year that we were written off by all and sundry, particularly when we lost three out of the first four matches. But I think as the season went on, teams did develop strategies to deal with Goodes and Hall in particular, and occasionally Davis as well.

Fortunately, the tactics achieved little more than to annoy Goodes, and to push Hall up the ground more often, both of which probably worked in our favour.

It has been much touted that the Swans are a good across-the-board team with few stars, and, coupled with Roos' "running in packs" style of play, this makes it very difficult for other teams to come up with a simple strategy to combat Sydney.

I suspect we will see a number of opponents play man-on-man to break up the flow of Sydney's game in a negative way. This was tried on occasion last year, but the Swans' amazing goal-kicking accuracy brought it undone.

I hope we can hit the target as often in 2004.

**barry** · 13 January 2004, 08:45 PM

We should also bear in mind that we are a better team on paper than any victorian team, simply by fact that we managed to get to 4th last year whilst having 10 genuine away games to overcome. Thats a big chunk of your season doing it tough.

So that leaves the interstaters as our real flag rivals:
Brisbane - Good, but age is catching up with them. Still the benchmark.
Port - Our equal in many respects. Age and the loss of Stevens has raised questions as well as their mental state.
Crows - The oldest of the lot.
Freo - Possibly will move ahead of us, look very exciting.
WC - Will probably tread water this year.

We are up there fellas, make no mistake.

**Nico** · 13 January 2004, 09:14 PM

What is this twaddle about our midfield having to "step up".

I reckon it was a very influential factor in our improvement last year. The likes of Bolton and Kirk really came on and Willo was bloody excellent. I 'm amazed that some posters are almost putting a "veiled" gorn on Willo.

What we have to do is find someone who will pick up Cressa's 30 possessions a game, and replicate his out of the centre work of last season, the best in this area of his game for his entire career for mine.

**ItsAllGoodes** · 14 January 2004, 05:45 AM

whilst I suggested that they have to step up I was not saying that they didnt have great years

jude was great....his 'step up' may simply be to take the ball inside 50 more and kick more goals. And I think he is more than capable of it...he does have more improvement in him

yes willo was great..but he spends increasingly more time in the backline...which means we lose some of his influence and he is one midfield player who normally kicks goals on the run

kirk was great....there were a few games when he kicked goals but i dont think you'd rely on it because of the role he plays

I agree we need a replacement for cresswell. I probably should have included him in my tally of goals scored by the midfield but he has been removed from the list of players on the swans website so I couldnt find out how many he kicked

I am just saying that we probably need to find more goals from the midfield group to compete with the likes of Brisbane. This group of players need to do more than just win the ball from clearances (yes I know thats where it all starts) - they need to create scoring opportunities for our forwards and themselves.

Step up...just means take another step...even Goodes can step up, even Barry Hall can step up etc

**Cheer Cheer** · 14 January 2004, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by chammond
I suspect we will see a number of opponents play man-on-man to break up the flow of Sydney's game in a negative way. This was tried on occasion last year, but the Swans' amazing goal-kicking accuracy brought it undone.

We infact used the man on man tactic against Port Adelaide in the Qualifying Final and it was used very effectively against a highly skilled group of players.
I don't think the man on man tactic would be too effective against us - as we in fact used that tactic many times last year on other teams to our advantage.

**liz** · 14 January 2004, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Nico
What is this twaddle about our midfield having to "step up".

Clearances, clearances, clearances...

For mine, the great improvement Roos has made to the team is use of the ball when we are in possession. Gone are those countless turnovers, direct to the chest of an opposition player, when there is seemingly no pressure.

We have numerous midfielders who are fleet of foot and (usually) of mind and once they started using the ball well, the overall efficiency of the team improved tenfold.

We are also pretty good at creating pressure through tackling and numbers at the ball, thus creating deadball situations. However this is a legacy of Eade, IMO, rather than something Roos has had to develop from scratch.

Where we are still weak is at getting the ball away from those deadball situations swiftly and creatively. That's where the midfield needs to improve drastically. It will give us that much more first use of the ball and therefore opportunities to feed what I believe to be the most balanced, varied and freakishly skilled forward line in the league at the moment.

Outside Prediction

Outside Prediction

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