Outside Prediction

[chammond]

Originally posted by lizz
Clearances, clearances, clearances...

For mine, the great improvement Roos has made to the team is use of the ball when we are in possession. Gone are those countless turnovers, direct to the chest of an opposition player, when there is seemingly no pressure.

Another thing that I found really positive last season was a willingness by the Swans to kick to a competition.

Although this is generally condemned by football commentators, I think it is something that good teams frequently do . . . . for the simple reason that they are confident that, in a fifty-fifty situation, their team-mates will win out most of the time.

I remember that in 1996, as confidence grew, players didn't hesitate to kick to a one-on-one duel if they couldn't see a team-mate in the clear. But that confidence gradually faded, and in Eade's latter years it seemed like players were terrified to kick unless they were 100% certain of hitting a target, which inevitably led to a breakdown in attacking momentum.

[Go Swannies]

One element that seems to be constantly overlooked in assessing how we may go this year is that we still have basically the same team - with one year's more experience.

Great tackling and fast movement of the ball largely covered for errors through inexperience. Over the past week I've watched most of the games of 2003 again and see the errors made when the Swans were on the back foot. Hawthorn in round 19 and Collingwood in R 21 stand out particularly.

I wish I could remember who at the Herald gave the headline "Pies give Swans a lesson in finals football" after our R21 loss. I hope they were embarassed when the Pies were given a real lesson by the Lions in the GF. But now we have had some tough finals and final-like matches and did well in all of them (with the exception of the last 1/4 of the Lions PF). Many players (even Bazza) looked nervous and made mistakes in some important games. I think they'll be more case-hardened this year and that will more than make up for other teams expecting us to play well after coming 3rd in 2003.

If Paul Roos can continue to out manouver the other coaches and we're not beset by injury then I think top 4 is a reasonable expectation for 2004. The finals just seem too far away to dream of what might happen there.

[Reggi]

Yeah - being honest about it it anyone who rates our midfield is kidding themselves. Lizz is right, we are about 15th or so in clearances and particularly the Hawthorn and Collingwood games showed we could be absolutely decimated in close.

That is the big factor holding us back at the moment - one or two strong bodied ball-winning midfielders. We are ordinary at the minute in that area.


J Bolton should get fitter and stronger and improve us there, but the other one?

The fourth ranking on points scored against for our defence doesn't accurately reflect there attack and flair - Barry and Kennelly were exceptional.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I agree with Lizz's comments, our midfielders show plenty of pace (Maxfield, Willo, Fosdike and hopefully Fixter and McVeigh) however they are more outside men than in and under / stoppage theif / ball magnets. I worry if the loss of Cressa will highlight this problem.

Despite the midfield rotation much depends on Jude. He is developing into a real hard nut.

To assist him perhaps we should experiment with the midfield mix during the preseason . . .

I wonder whether Kirk can develop the way Cressa did ~ from a stopper who was led to the ball by his target to a high possession winner.

I would be interested to see what Jarred Crouch could achieve in the square (not just tagging) he has plenty of pace and was an absolute ball magnet in junior footy, would he thrive beyond the back pocket?

It will also be exciting to see Schneider get more time in the square.

Other than that the cupboard looks a little bare (for next season), I do not regard Mathews or Kenneally as anything but occasional midfielders.

Actually I have one really bizzare thought, what would Leo Barry be like in the middle?

[DST]

I think we have hit the nail on the head.

While we could use another bigger stronger KP backman to take on the likes of Brown and Carey, both our backline and forwards are top 6 material and with a bit of luck and form (and the likelyhood James may stand up) they are even better.

What stands between us and a justified right to call ourselves a top 4 side and legitimate premiership chance is the midfield.

The statistics show that we just do not win enough contested ball at stoppages to give our forwards enough of a chance to kick a winning score under finals type conditions (before anyone jumps in and mentions the Port final just think, we beat Port who have a similar problem as us "winning the ball at stoppages when teams go man on man against them").

It is critically important next year that Ball and Doyle have good consistent years to give us the best shot of developing a clear plan to improve this area.

We are not going to be able to replace Cressa overnight and I don't think we need to replace him with one player either. Roos will be looking to a group of players (some experienced, some not) to collectively improve their performance.

These experienced players are:

Fosdike - more impact in general play, especially earlier in games

Matthews - expect to see more of him rotating through the midfield this year where his very good reading of the play is useful (gets lot of the ball) and disposal (when not given to much time to think about it) is very good.

Davis - greater fitness and new found work ethic can lead Davis to be used for his speed off a standing mark and kicking late in quarters as a burst player

O'keefe - needs to work on fitness, but has the work ethic and likes it rough and tight

Crouch - given a run with role in the middle to free up Kirk

Fixter - unkown quantity becuase of injury

Scheinder - will need to work on fitness before being given a real go at the midfield

The new ones he will hope can play some games and add a bit during their brief stints:

Thewlis
McVeigh
Schmidt
Willoughby

We have the cattle to improve in this area, but as you can see from above it is very young and un tested.

DST

[Ajn]

Measure a midfield?

How do people measure a midfield?

NOT BY GOALS SCORED! Forwards..., that's who the midfield are aiming for, unless they have a 36 year old in the goal mouth.

Clearances were the problem for the swans, who need to unearth a hard body to take up the slack that has truely been there since the Kelly/Cresswell partnership ended.

Matthews, O'keefe or Thewlis I think are the best candidates.

[barry]

Re: Measure a midfield?

Originally posted by Ajn

Matthews, O'keefe or Thewlis I think are the best candidates.

I've got to admit, I am ever hopeful that O'keefe will turn into a star player.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Re: Re: Measure a midfield?

Originally posted by barry
I've got to admit, I am ever hopeful that O'keefe will turn into a star player.

Apparently his off season training is too be directed towards leg speed, even at the cost of body strength.
I assumed this presaged a move upfield.

[Sanecow]

I hope that doesn't affect his contested marking, that's a great part of his game.

[BAM_BAM]

It is a great part of his game, but he has worked hard and long at his fitness, and after the results of the time trials, he was right up there with the endurance times.

He's hard at the contest and also doesn't lack the hardness to throw his body on the line.

I think he'll be played eventually in the midfield with the possiblility of kicking goals on the run, which is also another great aspect of his game.

IMHO one to watch

[SWANSBEST]

IF Fixter regains fitness I think that he will be a contender for a position as an inside midfielder . A real hard nut when he is in form.

[JF_Bay22_SCG]

Here is my reply.
<http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showth...5&pagenumber=4>


Am way too lazy to re-post stuff I took ages to write in the first place back onto here again.

Am interested on your thoughts/criticisms to my theory for the Lions last quarter fade out as well.

Fire away team!!!!!!

JF

[DST]

Originally posted by JF_Bay22_SCG
Am interested on your thoughts/criticisms to my theory for the Lions last quarter fade out as well.

Fire away team!!!!!!

JF

Quite simply JF, in the last quarter against Brisvegas we failed to get our hands on the ball at stoppages. The cruel fact is that when the going got tough in that last quarter the Brisvegas midfield lifted and was clearly better than ours. But you don't have to be a rocket scientest to know they are pound for pound better than us in the midfield!!!!!!!!!!

I think the Roos ploy was a good one, he knew how much they were hurting after the Port Adelaide game (only had to be at the airport after the game to see how stuffed and banged up they were) and tried to use the Cressa decision to extract the last bit of energy and fight they had.

That said as well, you will find that when a team knows they are beat in either a PF or GF heads drop very quickly and blow out's occur. It is only natural that for such big games once the realistation kicks in that it's the end then the energy does go quickly, just think of how we felt during the last as supporters?

DST

[swansrock4eva]

I'll admit I was quite upset at first - at 3/4 time I was starting to mentally plan my trip to Melbourne the next weekend (yes yes I know, counting chickens and all!), but the way we'd been playing, I really believed we had a good chance to win the match. And then we just stopped dead and there were quite a few teapots running around instead of footy players. For the life of me I couldn't work out where it all went wrong at the game, but when I thought about it, imo they had played their last quarter one too early and had nothing left to go on with it.

The ppl in the CS will tell you how upset I was immediately after the game (how's that mascara stain on the jersey JM? ) but then when I sat back and thought about it, we were always going to run out of puff at some point, and it happened to be a lot later than many of us had expected. I think the boys will have learnt from it and will be keen on avenging the 44-point margin that I don't feel really reflected the quality of the game overall - Collingwood got hammered the week after and the margin matched the game, but we got hammered after actually trying to put up a strong defence for 3 quarters.

[BAM_BAM]

I don't know that it was "the" factor, but I agree with Jules in believing it was a contributing factor.

It's a card he had up his sleave. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.