Our Chances This Week

[barry]

Originally posted by Captain

I put $500 on Lions in the PF at $1.65. I tell you though, I couldn't speak after the game from all the baracking I did for the Swans.

Your baracking must have sounded quite hollow then.

I cant beleive anyone would put money against their own team. Sure, bet on the footy in other games, but against your own team is disgraceful (not to mention your judgement on good odds is clouded by lopsided information)

[liz]

The team will only get flogged if the midfield doesn't work and at least we haven't lost any of the smaller midfielders. If Williams, Maxfield, Bolton, Mathews, Crouch and Kirk continue their excellent form of the last fortnight, the team should at least hold its own, although if MJ is the only ruck it will not make things easy.

MOL is a big loss - he and Bazz work so well together - but Davis at least represents quality coming back in and there is enough talent down there to create a winning score if the midfield can get them the ball enough.

Losing Barry down back is a huge blow and may mean the defence leaks a bit more than it did last week or the week before. At least the Power don't have quite as many quality tall forwards to cover as the Saints do. The ones they have are very good but it's fewer "jobs" that the team needs to do. We will need Powell or James to stand up and play the best game of their career in they are to provide some of the missing dash of Barry.

Will be a tough game to win but I'll be very disappointed if the Swannies get flogged.

[Dpw]

Originally posted by lizz
The team will only get flogged if the midfield doesn't work and at least we haven't lost any of the smaller midfielders. If Williams, Maxfield, Bolton, Mathews, Crouch and Kirk continue their excellent form of the last fortnight, the team should at least hold its own, although if MJ is the only ruck it will not make things easy.

MOL is a big loss - he and Bazz work so well together - but Davis at least represents quality coming back in and there is enough talent down there to create a winning score if the midfield can get them the ball enough.

Losing Barry down back is a huge blow and may mean the defence leaks a bit more than it did last week or the week before. At least the Power don't have quite as many quality tall forwards to cover as the Saints do. The ones they have are very good but it's fewer "jobs" that the team needs to do. We will need Powell or James to stand up and play the best game of their career in they are to provide some of the missing dash of Barry.

Will be a tough game to win but I'll be very disappointed if the Swannies get flogged.

Couldn't of put it any better myself.

[chammond]

Will be a tough game to win but I'll be very disappointed if the Swannies get flogged.

I think we'll probably lose, but only because the game is at AAMI.

I don't think there is much between the teams on paper . . . neither will have anywhere near their best team on the park . . . and anyone who is taking the current odds about a Port victory is being ripped off. Port should be slight odds-on, but 5/2 on ? . . . no way!

I'm looking forward to seeing Mieklejohn again, and hopefully getting a good look at Dempster (who was a very highly rated U18).

Whatever the result, the following four matches will set up our season, and hopefully we'll have a full-strength side for the run home.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by barry
Your baracking must have sounded quite hollow then.

I cant beleive anyone would put money against their own team. Sure, bet on the footy in other games, but against your own team is disgraceful (not to mention your judgement on good odds is clouded by lopsided information)

What a load of crap!

[Captain]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Captain,

From what you say you only bet on the Swans to lose? What about if you think they'll win? Do you still bet on the opposition or wait until you think the Swans are set for their next fall?

I'm just trying to get a handle on how you think on this.

I work on the assumption that those who don't know the team tend to underestimate them. So the odds for the Aints game last week and the Port final last year seemed very good for a Swans win. So it seemed time to put money on it. But if you are using the money to compensate for a likely loss, you are getting worse odds because you and the bookies agree on the likely result being a Swans loss.

Unless you really use your inside knowledge of the team to know that they are more likely to lose the unloseable - the Tigers, for example. Did you bet on the Tigers? (If so, I bet you cleaned up.)

Well considering I put money on the Swans last week, I don't just bet against the Swans. It's usually the other way around.

Supporters like you have 'blind faith' and never understand when your team is down. By this I mean our injuries as opposed to form. People will simply look at our win against the Saints and say we have a great chance this week.

I'm not supprised we are getting flogged today, we don't have the cattle. I know we have lost a few in the game, but we went in with next to nothing.

[SwansRock]

do you acually support the team or are you just here to complain.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by Captain
Well considering I put money on the Swans last week, I don't just bet against the Swans. It's usually the other way around.

Supporters like you have 'blind faith' and never understand when your team is down. By this I mean our injuries as opposed to form. People will simply look at our win against the Saints and say we have a great chance this week.

I'm not supprised we are getting flogged today, we don't have the cattle. I know we have lost a few in the game, but we went in with next to nothing.

Thanks for the answer. But I don't have blind faith. I didn't expect the team to win today - but I was hoping they could. I agree - we've just run out of players who can play at AFL level. If I was drawing a positive out of today was that the flogging wasn't greater - the Swans even reduced the deficit in the final quarter. But the discipline I expected wasn't there - and it looked to be because quite a few players didn't have the skill level to run with Port. Our result today is in line with the way other teams have been thrashed by Port at home this year.

But I was asking purely on the betting aspect. If it's an even competition then the odds are 50:50 for either team. And this year I think home teams have probably won more than 70% of games. But the point I was making is that the Melbourne centered AFL experts (including those deciding the odds at the TAB, etc) generally don't know the Swans as well as they know the Victorian teams. So they tend to underestimate them and so betting on the Swans is often a better bet (especially as they have won 2/3 of their games under Paul Roos).

If I have blind faith I would have had money on the Swans today. I didn't. But I did think that we may have exposed the Aints and recommended to a friend that she put money on the Dogs. She did - but I got caught up with work and didn't get to the TAB.

If you really wanted to improve your winning odds as a Swans fan you'd open an account with the Victorian TAB. Last year it was giving about 17:1 on the Swans for the Premiership when the NSW TAB was down to 12:1.

And if you wanted to use your Swans expertise, you'd probably write off today's loss to injuries and see how the odds for the Swans taking out the Premiership this year will have blown out after today. Getting players back from injuries may give us a chance better than the 17:1 they are offering right now. At least if you get it right, you'll get a good return. I heard today that someone put $40,000 at $1.07 that the Saints would beat the Dogs. That's a really dumb bet, but I guess they've realised that by now.

[Captain]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Thanks for the answer. But I don't have blind faith. I didn't expect the team to win today - but I was hoping they could. I agree - we've just run out of players who can play at AFL level. If I was drawing a positive out of today was that the flogging wasn't greater - the Swans even reduced the deficit in the final quarter. But the discipline I expected wasn't there - and it looked to be because quite a few players didn't have the skill level to run with Port. Our result today is in line with the way other teams have been thrashed by Port at home this year.

But I was asking purely on the betting aspect. If it's an even competition then the odds are 50:50 for either team. And this year I think home teams have probably won more than 70% of games. But the point I was making is that the Melbourne centered AFL experts (including those deciding the odds at the TAB, etc) generally don't know the Swans as well as they know the Victorian teams. So they tend to underestimate them and so betting on the Swans is often a better bet (especially as they have won 2/3 of their games under Paul Roos).

If I have blind faith I would have had money on the Swans today. I didn't. But I did think that we may have exposed the Aints and recommended to a friend that she put money on the Dogs. She did - but I got caught up with work and didn't get to the TAB.

If you really wanted to improve your winning odds as a Swans fan you'd open an account with the Victorian TAB. Last year it was giving about 17:1 on the Swans for the Premiership when the NSW TAB was down to 12:1.

And if you wanted to use your Swans expertise, you'd probably write off today's loss to injuries and see how the odds for the Swans taking out the Premiership this year will have blown out after today. Getting players back from injuries may give us a chance better than the 17:1 they are offering right now. At least if you get it right, you'll get a good return. I heard today that someone put $40,000 at $1.07 that the Saints would beat the Dogs. That's a really dumb bet, but I guess they've realised that by now.

I bet on Swans games because they are the team I know most about obviously.

I agree that we sometimes get better odds, and I usually take these. I did so against the Saints for example.

However, I think there are times were bookies over estimate us, such as today. I got odds on Port of 1.40. There was pretty much no way we were going to win, so I backed Port.

I was still baracking for the Swans to win of course.

I don't see backing the opposition as negative and I hate doing it. It's just that there are times I love taking money from the TAB, and this was one of them.