The road to 4th.

[Go Swannies]

I watched the whole game. There is no doubting their incredible talent but yesterday they just looked like the season had gone on too long already. Gehrig was taken off because he just appeared to not want to be there. A month ago I mentioned that Mick Malthouse claims Wizard Cup success cost the Pies to Premiership in 2004. It then seemed far fetched that the Saints would fall short, too. But not any longer.

It all comes down to momentum. Right now the Saints and, to a lesser extent, the Dees appear to be stalling. The Swans on the other hand, with the exception of the Port game that most of us would think was an injury-induced aberation, keep winning no matter what is thrown at us. It's possible that we will come up against one of the "good" teams and find that we fall short. Or we may keep winning and suddenly things will be looking good.

I may be biased (okay, I am) but I think the Swans are perhaps the only team that has Brisbane's measure and could beat them in the GF. Let's hope we get a chance to find out.

[sharpie]

Saying that the Dees are stalling is a bit far fetched. It is only 1 loss, albeit a bad one, but we too struggled at football park recently. It is never an easy game there, despite the opposition's place on the ladder.

I am finding this season very difficult to predict, especially the top few sides, because I think St Kilda are now running out of legs. It happens quite often with young teams like them. Geelong did something similar a few years ago. Early in the season I predicted they would experience a slide once all their young guns felt the effects of a long hard season, and once their golden injury run stalled.

The other mystery team is Melbourne. My view on their season so far is that they had been playing at pretty much their peak level the whole time. They will be fine if they can sustain it, but I have big doubts whether they can. I am still awaiting their slide, similar to the way everyone in the afl was expecting the 2003 swans bubble to burst at some stage last year.

Again, the best we can do is make sure we keep winning. The rest will take care of themselves.

[Go Swannies]

Right now our more pressing issue is: how long does the new coach honeymoon last? I'm hoping that it's 10 days, tops.

[Thunder Shaker]

Given that we play five of the other sides in the top 8, plus Kangas (ninth), it's safe to say that our own fate is firmly in our own hands.

If we make the finals this year, we can be proud of our boys, who would have managed to overcome injuries and a tough draw.

A top-4 finish is unlikely, but if we do manage to make the top 4, we would have had a better season than last year because more of our wins would be over other top-8 sides.

[RogueSwan]

Originally posted by sharpie
My ideal scenario would be somehow miraculously finishing 4th and getting 1st shot at the sainters. They have shown they fall away against tough opposition with finals experience. I think we can do them again if we get the chance.

But wouldn't that mean playing at Docklands? I believe the Saints are a significantly better team when they play in the sterilised confines of the Dome, and I can't recall too many Swans victories there.

[liz]

Originally posted by RogueSwan
But wouldn't that mean playing at Docklands? I believe the Saints are a significantly better team when they play in the sterilised confines of the Dome, and I can't recall too many Swans victories there.

Not if Brisbane, Port and Freo occupy the other three spots that qualify for home finals in week one. Then it would have to be at the 'G since there has to be at least one game there.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
I watched the whole game. There is no doubting their incredible talent but yesterday they just looked like the season had gone on too long already.

Yes - it does seem that way. They should win the games I noted above, however a couple of months ago I was commenting that I thought St Kilda may come off the ball during the end of the season as the younger guys tire, which could see them struggle in finals as well. We'll get a good idea on how they are travelling in the next couple of games.

I don't know if you can say Melbourne are stalling - it's only one loss.

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
If we make the finals this year, we can be proud of our boys, who would have managed to overcome injuries and a tough draw.

A top-4 finish is unlikely, but if we do manage to make the top 4, we would have had a better season than last year because more of our wins would be over other top-8 sides.

I agree with the injury part.

Just on the draw part, last year we played 11 eventual top 8 teams, and won 6 of them. This year so far (based on the current ladder) we are 3-4, and we play top 8 sides five more times. If we win 4 of these it would be phenomenal!!

[BAM_BAM]

thanks Barry,

I was thinking about working out who had to win lose etc, but really couldn't be bothered last night.

I'm going out on a limb and saying top four finish winning both finals in Sydney and then a GF

well that's what I'm wishing for anyway. Can never be too optimistic.

[barry]

Originally posted by BAM_BAM
thanks Barry,

I was thinking about working out who had to win lose etc, but really couldn't be bothered last night.

I'm going out on a limb and saying top four finish winning both finals in Sydney and then a GF

well that's what I'm wishing for anyway. Can never be too optimistic.

I cant see us getting higher than 4th, so that means the first final is away.

In that respect I hope the 'aints keep it going, as playing them in the first final at the MCG would be the easiest option.

Then a prelim in Sydney. Hopefully avoiding Brisbane this time, and with a bit of luck getting Freo - huge home ground advantage

Then its on to the grand final where we can only hope to meet the bunny in the spotlights, Port.

[Schneidergirl]

After the results this weekend I'm seriously wondering about the GF this year.
I know it's only round 14 but this is when teams are suppose to make the run for the final.

My tip.....
Lions Vs Swans

Also, who ever was commentating on the Crows game said they are still an outside chance for the finals... this can not be true surely

[BAM_BAM]

Originally posted by Schneidergirl
Also, who ever was commentating on the Crows game said they are still an outside chance for the finals... this can not be true surely

I watched some of their games yesterday, they looked pretty slick at times. Lets just hope we put an end to any chances they have next week.

[Schneidergirl]

Originally posted by BAM_BAM
I watched some of their games yesterday, they looked pretty slick at times. Lets just hope we put an end to any chances they have next week.

Yes I know. They are looking like they did last year.... finally! But yes let's hope it all ends this weekend.

[Captain]

Have confidence that the Crows were always going to fire up this week. It always seems to happen after a coach gets the sack.

My tip is they will be on a downer this week, with the Swans winning by 37 points.

[Schneidergirl]

Originally posted by Schneidergirl
My tip.....
Lions Vs Swans

I'd like to add Port to this.

My tips....
Lions Vs Power
or
Lions Vs Swans
or
Power Vs Swans (this will be pay back for Round 12)

[Go Swannies]

Great - the third week in a row when we play a team whose season is on the line and regard it as a "must win" game. Geelong, Freo and the Dees could be in the same boat by the time we get to them . . . Or maybe they all just think playing the Swans is to be the start of their comeback trail.