Experts Say 80% Chance!

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  • BonBon
    BMT2144
    • Jul 2004
    • 2190

    Experts Say 80% Chance!

    If you read the Herald Sun, in the sports section it showed all the teams with their percentages and chances of getting into the finals.

    The experts said that the Swannies have 80% chance. They didn't clarify our percentage chance if we win or lose our next 2 games!

    What do you think?
    Vicky Pollard: Oh my god I so can't believe you just said that this is like the time I threw Anita's nokia in the canal as a joke and she's like you have well got to buy me another one and I'm like get over it and then Paul came over who's adopted anyway and started saying that I fancy Mark Bennett but oh my god just because I have sex with someone doesn't mean I fancy them.
  • barry
    Veterans List
    • Jan 2003
    • 8499

    #2
    Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

    Originally posted by BonBon
    If you read the Herald Sun, in the sports section it showed all the teams with their percentages and chances of getting into the finals.

    The experts said that the Swannies have 80% chance. They didn't clarify our percentage chance if we win or lose our next 2 games!

    What do you think?
    If we win 2, its 100%
    If we lose 2, its 0%
    If we win 1, lose 1, its 80%

    Hows that ?

    Comment

    • jenky28
      Our Edge Is Reg
      • Jun 2004
      • 564

      #3
      Re: Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

      Originally posted by barry
      If we win 2, its 100%
      If we lose 2, its 0%
      If we win 1, lose 1, its 80%

      Hows that ?
      Agree totally we need to keep wining to stay in the eight.
      Even if they drop this weekend and we win the week after that should be still enuf to get us in but we will prob finish 7th to 8th.

      Hope we make it cos then anythings possible
      OUR EDGE IS REG

      Comment

      • motorace_182
        On the Rookie List
        • Jan 2003
        • 961

        #4
        Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

        Originally posted by BonBon
        If you read the Herald Sun, in the sports section it showed all the teams with their percentages and chances of getting into the finals.

        The experts said that the Swannies have 80% chance. They didn't clarify our percentage chance if we win or lose our next 2 games!

        What do you think?
        Are these the same experts from the Hun that predicted us to finish last in 2003, or are these the ones that predicted us to get thumped by the Power at AAMI last season??
        - Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in a world they've been given, than to explore the power they have to change it. Impossible is not a fact, it's an opinion. Impossible is not a declaration, it's a dare. Impossible is potential. Impossible is temporary. Impossible is nothing!

        Comment

        • BonBon
          BMT2144
          • Jul 2004
          • 2190

          #5
          Maybe different altogether :P

          How can they be called exoerts when their so-called 'expertise' is useless and false?

          Anything could happen so I reckon the the 'experts' are full of crap!

          But I wanna take their word on 80% chance of finals...
          Vicky Pollard: Oh my god I so can't believe you just said that this is like the time I threw Anita's nokia in the canal as a joke and she's like you have well got to buy me another one and I'm like get over it and then Paul came over who's adopted anyway and started saying that I fancy Mark Bennett but oh my god just because I have sex with someone doesn't mean I fancy them.

          Comment

          • BonBon
            BMT2144
            • Jul 2004
            • 2190

            #6
            I actually didn't expect to jump from 9th position to 7th. Our percentage is 'just' higher than Essendons. Next week, the Swans and Bombers will basically be competing for one spot in the finals. I hope I'm able to drive to Sydney to cheer 'em on!
            Vicky Pollard: Oh my god I so can't believe you just said that this is like the time I threw Anita's nokia in the canal as a joke and she's like you have well got to buy me another one and I'm like get over it and then Paul came over who's adopted anyway and started saying that I fancy Mark Bennett but oh my god just because I have sex with someone doesn't mean I fancy them.

            Comment

            • NMWBloods
              Taking Refuge!!
              • Jan 2003
              • 15819

              #7
              It's Champion Data statistics. They work out the likelihood of each team winning each game for the remaining rounds, from which they can work out the probability of each side finishing in certain places on the ladder.

              For example, they may say something like (purely rough numbers to illustrate):

              70% chance of us beating Richmond
              60% chance of us beating Essendon

              = 42% chance of us beating both

              + 38% chances of us winning just one game and the other games falling the right way for us to finish in the eight anyway.

              Simple mathematical models.
              Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

              "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

              Comment

              • dendol
                fat-arsed midfielder
                • Oct 2003
                • 1483

                #8
                Originally posted by NMWBloods
                Simple mathematical models.
                not for some of us!

                Comment

                • BonBon
                  BMT2144
                  • Jul 2004
                  • 2190

                  #9
                  Actually I take your word on that one!
                  Vicky Pollard: Oh my god I so can't believe you just said that this is like the time I threw Anita's nokia in the canal as a joke and she's like you have well got to buy me another one and I'm like get over it and then Paul came over who's adopted anyway and started saying that I fancy Mark Bennett but oh my god just because I have sex with someone doesn't mean I fancy them.

                  Comment

                  • dev
                    On the Rookie List
                    • Jul 2004
                    • 9

                    #10
                    Re: Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

                    Originally posted by barry
                    If we win 2, its 100%
                    If we lose 2, its 0%
                    If we win 1, lose 1, its 80%

                    Hows that ?
                    WE could actually lose both, and still make the finals.....but it 'd need the W Bulldogs to beat the kangaroos.....hehe.....As u can see I have been playing with that afl site predictor.

                    Comment

                    • BonBon
                      BMT2144
                      • Jul 2004
                      • 2190

                      #11
                      Yes I did that too, seeing as though I am so loyal, at the grand final, my prediction was Swans and Melbourne
                      Vicky Pollard: Oh my god I so can't believe you just said that this is like the time I threw Anita's nokia in the canal as a joke and she's like you have well got to buy me another one and I'm like get over it and then Paul came over who's adopted anyway and started saying that I fancy Mark Bennett but oh my god just because I have sex with someone doesn't mean I fancy them.

                      Comment

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