Experts Say 80% Chance!

[BonBon]

If you read the Herald Sun, in the sports section it showed all the teams with their percentages and chances of getting into the finals.

The experts said that the Swannies have 80% chance. They didn't clarify our percentage chance if we win or lose our next 2 games!

What do you think?

[barry]

Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

Originally posted by BonBon
If you read the Herald Sun, in the sports section it showed all the teams with their percentages and chances of getting into the finals.

The experts said that the Swannies have 80% chance. They didn't clarify our percentage chance if we win or lose our next 2 games!

What do you think?

If we win 2, its 100%
If we lose 2, its 0%
If we win 1, lose 1, its 80%

Hows that ?

[jenky28]

Re: Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

Originally posted by barry
If we win 2, its 100%
If we lose 2, its 0%
If we win 1, lose 1, its 80%

Hows that ?

Agree totally we need to keep wining to stay in the eight.
Even if they drop this weekend and we win the week after that should be still enuf to get us in but we will prob finish 7th to 8th.

Hope we make it cos then anythings possible

[motorace_182]

Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

Originally posted by BonBon
If you read the Herald Sun, in the sports section it showed all the teams with their percentages and chances of getting into the finals.

The experts said that the Swannies have 80% chance. They didn't clarify our percentage chance if we win or lose our next 2 games!

What do you think?

Are these the same experts from the Hun that predicted us to finish last in 2003, or are these the ones that predicted us to get thumped by the Power at AAMI last season??

[BonBon]

Maybe different altogether :P

How can they be called exoerts when their so-called 'expertise' is useless and false?

Anything could happen so I reckon the the 'experts' are full of crap!

But I wanna take their word on 80% chance of finals...

[BonBon]

I actually didn't expect to jump from 9th position to 7th. Our percentage is 'just' higher than Essendons. Next week, the Swans and Bombers will basically be competing for one spot in the finals. I hope I'm able to drive to Sydney to cheer 'em on!

[NMWBloods]

It's Champion Data statistics. They work out the likelihood of each team winning each game for the remaining rounds, from which they can work out the probability of each side finishing in certain places on the ladder.

For example, they may say something like (purely rough numbers to illustrate):

70% chance of us beating Richmond
60% chance of us beating Essendon

= 42% chance of us beating both

+ 38% chances of us winning just one game and the other games falling the right way for us to finish in the eight anyway.

Simple mathematical models.

[dendol]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Simple mathematical models.

not for some of us!

[BonBon]

Actually I take your word on that one!

[dev]

Re: Re: Experts Say 80% Chance!

Originally posted by barry
If we win 2, its 100%
If we lose 2, its 0%
If we win 1, lose 1, its 80%

Hows that ?

WE could actually lose both, and still make the finals.....but it 'd need the W Bulldogs to beat the kangaroos.....hehe.....As u can see I have been playing with that afl site predictor.

[BonBon]

Yes I did that too, seeing as though I am so loyal, at the grand final, my prediction was Swans and Melbourne