Are we better placed for the finals than this time last year?

[Dave]

I'd say we are.

We certainly aren't the walking wounded we were last year and there are good performances across the team.

This weekend will really convince me though. The Tigers will be desperate not to get the spoon so we will really have to take it up to them.

[TheHood]

I think Plough should address the whole Richmond group telling how important priority draft pick are!

[swansrule100]

lets get through rnd 22 first

remember last year a certain key forward got injured.... touch wood it doesnt happen again!

[Wil]

I think the team is much better this year - but the simple fact we are not qualifying in the top 4 puts us at a worse point than last year. Three wins in a row to make the final vs two wins in a row is a big difference, I think...

How many teams recently that have finished 5-8 have made the final and done well in it?

[Rob-bloods]

Originally posted by Wil
I think the team is much better this year - but the simple fact we are not qualifying in the top 4 puts us at a worse point than last year. Three wins in a row to make the final vs two wins in a row is a big difference, I think...

How many teams recently that have finished 5-8 have made the final and done well in it?

Did Adelaide do it ?

[Damien]

To win the flag it looks like we would have to travel 4 weeks in a row.

Very very hard ask. Would be nice to be able to stay home week 1, but not to be. The boys will be on planes and in hotels each week.

[cruiser]

I don't think that we are better placed than last year. Last year we had the double chance and a home final. This year we will have neither. At least we appear to have hit form at the right time but I also cannot fault Sydney's form during last year's finals, other than the last quarter against Brisbane.

As for Richmond not wanting the spoon, I'm not sure they care enough. I think that they are a disgrace at every level of their club and deserve the wooden spoon. Its unfortunate that their reward will be the first draft pick and a priority draft pick. This Richmond team has brought shame to a once great club. And I hope Sydney kicks its arse on Saturday, revenging our second worse loss for the year in round 7 (North was our worse loss).

[Damien]

Originally posted by Rob-bloods
Did Adelaide do it ?

yes but under the McIntyre System. Much easier, especially in 1997.

(They did knock us off in the semi a the SCG in 1998 though, no easy feat)

[barry]

Originally posted by Damien
To win the flag it looks like we would have to travel 4 weeks in a row.

Very very hard ask. Would be nice to be able to stay home week 1, but not to be. The boys will be on planes and in hotels each week.

Actually its 5 (Tigers this week).

But we are a bit like Adealide when they won it, so I have hope. Our biggest hurdle could be the prelim in Brisbane or Adelaide. Other than that, I'd back us at the G against all comers.

[NMWBloods]

We are like Adelaide in '98 in some ways, and this has been noted by some in the media. Our midfield probably isn't as good as their's was but our forward line is better.

One of the key differences is the quality of opposition in the rest of the eight - I think Brisbane '04 is better than NM '98, and Port '04 is better than Bulldogs '98. Rest of the eight is probably not too dissimilar - one of the weaker periods of AFL from memory and I don't think this year is a heap better.

Adelaide's run was pretty tough in '98. They finished 5th and had to play Melbourne at the MCG, then Sydney at the SCG and then the Bulldogs at the MCG. Their first final was also coming off a trip to Subi in rd 22.

[Damien]

Originally posted by NMWBloods


Adelaide's run was pretty tough in '98. They finished 5th and had to play Melbourne at the MCG, then Sydney at the SCG and then the Bulldogs at the MCG. Their first final was also coming off a trip to Subi in rd 22.

Difference being that Adelaide lost to Melbourne in 1998, but under the Mcintyre system survived as a higher loser.

A luxury we do not have.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Damien
Difference being that Adelaide lost to Melbourne in 1998, but under the Mcintyre system survived as a higher loser.

A luxury we do not have.

True enough, although as a 5th place team they had to play 4th whereas 5th plays 8th now, so there is some offset with that change.

Assuming we finish 6th and play WC in 7th, we are probably in a reasonable position relative to Adelaide's in '98. What we'd like though is for Geelong to beat Port in the first final.

[Thunder Shaker]

Adelaide of '98 had one thing that we lacked: a double chance in the finals due to the finals system. They lost to Melbourne in their first final, then won the other finals to win the flag.

We are a chance to emulate their feat this year, but it will not be easy.

Let's assume that the finals matchups in the first week are:
Port vs Geelong at Football Park
Brisbane vs St Kilda at the Gabba
Melbourne vs Essendon at the MCG
Sydney vs West Coast at the MCG

We would be lucky even to win the first week if we face the Eagles at the MCG. They have won their last four, including a good win against the Lions at the Gabba. They are quality opposition, and although we have a good record against them, history counts for nothing. This is the toughest game of our road to the Grand Final, and should the Eagles win they would be as likely as us to progress to the Grand Final after three elimination finals.

Suppose we did beat the Eagles the first week. We would then meet the loser of the Brisbane-St Kilda final. That's likely to be the Saints. We beat them comfortably at the SCG this year. The Saints will be tougher to beat in Melbourne, but away from the Dome the Saints are vulnerable. Should we meet Brisbane, we can beat them, but Brisbane in a knockout final is a tough ask especially with that match likely to be at the Gabba.

So now we have the Preliminary Final. This will be against the winner of the Port-Geelong final. That is likely to be Port. Port have a well-documented history of losing finals in the first week, but this year they meet a team with a hoodoo of their own. Geelong have had excellent form this year, but once they board a plane they leave their good form behind them. Geelong have lost all 5 games away from Victoria this year. Based on that, Port will be our likely opponents in a preliminary final. We can beat Port at Football Park in a final, but to repeat the feat this year we would need to be at our best.

Finally, the Grand Final. Without doing a detailed analysis, our likely opponents there would be Brisbane. We are one of two sides that Brisbane would not want to meet in a Grand Final - West Coast are the other. If we can get to the Grand Final against Brisbane, I think we can beat them.

So what are our chances of winning a flag from here?
Sydney vs West Coast: 50% (West Coast have good form)
Sydney vs St Kilda: 60% (we have beaten them already this year)
Sydney vs Port: 40% (this would be a tough match)
Sydney vs Brisbane: 45% (Brisbane are tougher to beat in finals)
1 in 18.5

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
True enough, although as a 5th place team they had to play 4th whereas 5th plays 8th now, so there is some offset with that change.

Assuming we finish 6th and play WC in 7th, we are probably in a reasonable position relative to Adelaide's in '98. What we'd like though is for Geelong to beat Port in the first final.

Wouldnt that be a dream run:
1) AFL to decide not to bank this year - home final week 1
2) Geelong knock off Port, Brisbane beat Stk
3) Swans beat Saints in week 2 at G
4) Swans beat Geel in prelim at G.
5) Port knock off Brisbane in Brisbane
6) Play Port in GF at G.
7) All teams we play have injuries.

Minimal travel. Easiest run.

[CureTheSane]

I think we are in a good position if you look at our win/loss ratio only.
If we beat the tigers on Sat, we are only one win down on last year, which by all accounts was a great season.

If you look at the individual games, it's a bitter/sweet thing.
We lost to teams like Richmond, and have given away games, like to the Kangaroos.

But we nearly beat Geelong, and Brisbane early in the year.
We did beat Brisbane later in the year.
We beat the Saints when they had been unbeaten all year Essendon who have been a bogey team at Homebush, among other good wins.

ie: we can tackle and beat the 'big guns' quite well this year.
So there is hope for us.
More so than say Essendon who can only seem to beat the lowly teams this year.