Are we better placed for the finals than this time last year?

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  • Bart
    CHHHOMMMMMPPP!!!!
    • Feb 2003
    • 1360

    #16
    Our H&A season is shaping up very similar to last year. If we finish on 13 wins, it will only be one less than last year. (14 wins would not get us in the 4 this year, we would need 15 and %)
    We literally fell into the top 4 last year because WC, Adelaide and Essendon all lost in Round 22.

    If we win this week, the only team in the entire comp we haven't beaten this year is Port Adelaide and got smashed by them in difficult circumstances.

    We are certainly better placed injury wise, and we have some decent form.

    We would likely play WC in week 1, who we can beat, and they have only won once at the G in the past 4 years. We would probably play the Saints there the week after, whom we've only ever played twice at the G (last time in 1970 !). The big test would be PA in a prelim in Adelaide.

    The key for us is going to be being able to at least maintain parity at clearances, and with Doyle in the form he is in, we can improve. We just can't let ourselves get spooked as we did in Q4 against the Roos and Q1 against the Bombers.

    The team has a very strong unity of purpose. There is a tremendous sense of camaraderie about this playing group

    Comment

    • Mike_B
      Peyow Peyow
      • Jan 2003
      • 6267

      #17
      Originally posted by Bart
      If we win this week, the only team in the entire comp we haven't beaten this year is Port Adelaide and got smashed by them in difficult circumstances.
      We also haven't beaten West Coast this year. But we'll beat them next week

      I'm on the Chandwagon!!!

      If you cannot compete for the premiership, it's better to be young and exciting than middle-aged and dowdy.

      Comment

      • Bart
        CHHHOMMMMMPPP!!!!
        • Feb 2003
        • 1360

        #18
        Originally posted by Mike_B
        We also haven't beaten West Coast this year. But we'll beat them next week
        Oh yes, erm, you're right. that was my assumption

        Comment

        • Thunder Shaker
          Aut vincere aut mori
          • Apr 2004
          • 4205

          #19
          Since 1995, on average, the 4th-placed team has had 14 wins. In the majority of occasions, 4th place has been decided on number of wins but three times 4th was ahead of 5th on percentage.
          13 wins - 2 (including percentage - 1)
          14 wins - 3 (including percentage - 1)
          15 wins - 3 (including percentage - 1)
          15+1/2 wins - 1

          I also did an analysis recently where I evaluated our fixture this year as being about one game tougher than last year.
          "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

          Comment

          • swan_song
            I'm SO over the swans!
            • Jan 2003
            • 981

            #20
            I would hope that last year's fade out against Brisbane in the last quarter will fill the team with a steely resolve to not let it happen again...I hope, gee I hope so....I PRAY!!! (I thought that about the 1997 team as well)...

            (but knowing Swans as I do, we're just as likely to drop the richmond game)
            "Davis...Davis has kicked 2...he snaps from 40...dont tell me, dont tell me, hes kicked a goal....unbelievable stuff from Nick Davis, can you believe this, he's kicked 3 final quarter goals and Swans are within 3 points..."

            Comment

            • NMWBloods
              Taking Refuge!!
              • Jan 2003
              • 15819

              #21
              The Richmond game worries me. Most of us have forgotten about it (understandably) and are talking about finals. Hopefully the guys are concentrating on it.
              Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

              "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

              Comment

              • Damien
                Living in 2005
                • Jan 2003
                • 3713

                #22
                Originally posted by NMWBloods
                The Richmond game worries me. Most of us have forgotten about it (understandably) and are talking about finals. Hopefully the guys are concentrating on it.
                Yes - plus Richmond have nothing at all to lose...they still keep the priority pick if they win lose or draw.

                Have to be careful. I remember the Bulldogs beating Collingwood in Rnd 22 two years ago. It can happen.

                Comment

                • JF_Bay22_SCG
                  expat Sydneysider
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 3978

                  #23
                  Originally posted by Damien
                  To win the flag it looks like we would have to travel 4 weeks in a row.

                  Very very hard ask. Would be nice to be able to stay home week 1, but not to be. The boys will be on planes and in hotels each week.
                  And so will I. God, I hope I get through September. Broke enough now!

                  JF
                  "Never ever ever state that Sydney is gone.They are like cockroaches in the aftermath of a nuclear war"
                  (Forum poster 'Change', Big Footy 04Apr09)

                  Comment

                  • Rob-bloods
                    What a year 2005 SSFC/CFC
                    • Aug 2003
                    • 931

                    #24
                    Originally posted by Damien
                    yes but under the McIntyre System. Much easier, especially in 1997.

                    (They did knock us off in the semi a the SCG in 1998 though, no easy feat)
                    Good point, system indeed did change, no-one understood the other one!

                    At the SCG it was awful, my recollection, Micky O our only key forward came in with or got a a shoulder injury and was struggling and Cressa was knocked out cold early on in a ruck after picking up 7 possessions in five minutes or something? A mystery knockout too, no-one saw anything! Anyone see it on the night? I was up the other end.
                    Sports do not build character. They reveal it....Heywood Broun

                    I always turn to the sports pages first, which record people's accomplishments. The front page has nothing but man's failures......Earl Warren

                    Comment

                    • sharp9
                      Senior Player
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 2508

                      #25
                      We haven't made the finals yet and I don't understand why every commentator and his dog keeps saying that we have.

                      Essendon (Bulldogs), West Coast (Melbourne) and Fremantle (St. Kilda) could all overtake us if they win next week and we lose.

                      Hasn't anybody else noticed this?
                      "I'll acknowledge there are more talented teams in the competition but I won't acknowledge that there is a better team in the competition" Paul Roos March 2005

                      Comment

                      • NMWBloods
                        Taking Refuge!!
                        • Jan 2003
                        • 15819

                        #26
                        Yes - hence my point above!
                        Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                        "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                        Comment

                        • ROK Lobster
                          RWO Life Member
                          • Aug 2004
                          • 8658

                          #27
                          We are in a heaps better spot. We have no chance of winning last year's flag

                          Comment

                          • Bear
                            Best and Fairest
                            • Feb 2003
                            • 1022

                            #28
                            Originally posted by ROK Lobster
                            We are in a heaps better spot. We have no chance of winning last year's flag


                            but seriously, we will have a much better team with (presumably) 19 and 27 available - massive difference... and 15 finally fit and firing.
                            "As a player he simply should not have been able to do the things he did. Leo was a 185cm, 88kg full-back and played on some of the biggest, fastest and best full-forwards of all time, and constantly beat them." Roos.
                            Leo Barry? you star! We'll miss ya, ''Leapin''.

                            Comment

                            • Thunder Shaker
                              Aut vincere aut mori
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 4205

                              #29
                              Originally posted by sharp9
                              Essendon (Bulldogs), West Coast (Melbourne) and Fremantle (St. Kilda) could all overtake us if they win next week and we lose.
                              Richmond could still beat us, yes ... but with them on the bottom surely we can beat them?

                              I plan to go on Saturday. Hopefully I will see a Swans win against the Tigers for a change, last 2 times I went to Tigers vs Swans the Swans lost by 6 points.
                              "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

                              Comment

                              • NMWBloods
                                Taking Refuge!!
                                • Jan 2003
                                • 15819

                                #30
                                Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
                                Richmond could still beat us, yes ... but with them on the bottom surely we can beat them?
                                We shouldn't just beat them - we should win by 10 goals. But then again, that's what we said earlier in the year too...
                                Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                                "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                                Comment

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