Are we better placed for the finals than this time last year?

[Bart]

Our H&A season is shaping up very similar to last year. If we finish on 13 wins, it will only be one less than last year. (14 wins would not get us in the 4 this year, we would need 15 and %)
We literally fell into the top 4 last year because WC, Adelaide and Essendon all lost in Round 22.

If we win this week, the only team in the entire comp we haven't beaten this year is Port Adelaide and got smashed by them in difficult circumstances.

We are certainly better placed injury wise, and we have some decent form.

We would likely play WC in week 1, who we can beat, and they have only won once at the G in the past 4 years. We would probably play the Saints there the week after, whom we've only ever played twice at the G (last time in 1970 !). The big test would be PA in a prelim in Adelaide.

The key for us is going to be being able to at least maintain parity at clearances, and with Doyle in the form he is in, we can improve. We just can't let ourselves get spooked as we did in Q4 against the Roos and Q1 against the Bombers.

The team has a very strong unity of purpose. There is a tremendous sense of camaraderie about this playing group

[Mike_B]

Originally posted by Bart
If we win this week, the only team in the entire comp we haven't beaten this year is Port Adelaide and got smashed by them in difficult circumstances.

We also haven't beaten West Coast this year. But we'll beat them next week

[Bart]

Originally posted by Mike_B
We also haven't beaten West Coast this year. But we'll beat them next week

Oh yes, erm, you're right. that was my assumption

[Thunder Shaker]

Since 1995, on average, the 4th-placed team has had 14 wins. In the majority of occasions, 4th place has been decided on number of wins but three times 4th was ahead of 5th on percentage.
13 wins - 2 (including percentage - 1)
14 wins - 3 (including percentage - 1)
15 wins - 3 (including percentage - 1)
15+1/2 wins - 1

I also did an analysis recently where I evaluated our fixture this year as being about one game tougher than last year.

[swan_song]

I would hope that last year's fade out against Brisbane in the last quarter will fill the team with a steely resolve to not let it happen again...I hope, gee I hope so....I PRAY!!! (I thought that about the 1997 team as well)...

(but knowing Swans as I do, we're just as likely to drop the richmond game)

[NMWBloods]

The Richmond game worries me. Most of us have forgotten about it (understandably) and are talking about finals. Hopefully the guys are concentrating on it.

[Damien]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
The Richmond game worries me. Most of us have forgotten about it (understandably) and are talking about finals. Hopefully the guys are concentrating on it.

Yes - plus Richmond have nothing at all to lose...they still keep the priority pick if they win lose or draw.

Have to be careful. I remember the Bulldogs beating Collingwood in Rnd 22 two years ago. It can happen.

[JF_Bay22_SCG]

Originally posted by Damien
To win the flag it looks like we would have to travel 4 weeks in a row.

Very very hard ask. Would be nice to be able to stay home week 1, but not to be. The boys will be on planes and in hotels each week.

And so will I. God, I hope I get through September. Broke enough now!

JF

[Rob-bloods]

Originally posted by Damien
yes but under the McIntyre System. Much easier, especially in 1997.

(They did knock us off in the semi a the SCG in 1998 though, no easy feat)

Good point, system indeed did change, no-one understood the other one!

At the SCG it was awful, my recollection, Micky O our only key forward came in with or got a a shoulder injury and was struggling and Cressa was knocked out cold early on in a ruck after picking up 7 possessions in five minutes or something? A mystery knockout too, no-one saw anything! Anyone see it on the night? I was up the other end.

[sharp9]

We haven't made the finals yet and I don't understand why every commentator and his dog keeps saying that we have.

Essendon (Bulldogs), West Coast (Melbourne) and Fremantle (St. Kilda) could all overtake us if they win next week and we lose.

Hasn't anybody else noticed this?

[NMWBloods]

Yes - hence my point above!

[ROK Lobster]

We are in a heaps better spot. We have no chance of winning last year's flag

[Bear]

Originally posted by ROK Lobster
We are in a heaps better spot. We have no chance of winning last year's flag

but seriously, we will have a much better team with (presumably) 19 and 27 available - massive difference... and 15 finally fit and firing.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by sharp9
Essendon (Bulldogs), West Coast (Melbourne) and Fremantle (St. Kilda) could all overtake us if they win next week and we lose.

Richmond could still beat us, yes ... but with them on the bottom surely we can beat them?

I plan to go on Saturday. Hopefully I will see a Swans win against the Tigers for a change, last 2 times I went to Tigers vs Swans the Swans lost by 6 points.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
Richmond could still beat us, yes ... but with them on the bottom surely we can beat them?

We shouldn't just beat them - we should win by 10 goals. But then again, that's what we said earlier in the year too...