Now, back to reality

[sharpie]

Re: How Fickle Do You Feel?

Originally posted by Ruckman
This is from the Swans official website

Roos indicated that it was imperative for the club to push for the finals each season, as he believes this is the only way to ensure long-lasting success in Sydney.

"I certainly don't think, as the Sydney Swans, you can afford to do what St Kilda has done - not that they planned it - but there's no way know we can afford to finish bottom of the ladder for three years and get the best six kids in the country - that's just not going to happen," Roos said.

"It's not feasible in Sydney otherwise you're probably not going to be in business in three years time."


I think he's wrong! And I dead-set reckon this preconception may stop us from winning a flag!

yeah, I saw this too and thought the exact same thing. Very disappointing, even considering we dont necessarily need to bottom out right now. Its just not having the option seems very restrictive

[Tooth Fairy]

Is this thread worth reading?

edit: that's a serious question btw

[Damien]

We would require funding from the AFL if we spent a few years at the bottom, simple as that.

Only two years ago, we got as low as 16,000 people to the Freo Match. It shows you how fickle our market it.

Our hardcore has certainly grown since 1994, but support outside that will be non existant if we were to do a "Geelong".

There is also no guarantee whatsoever that finishing bottom would get us the players we need anyway. Who knows if a players knee is going to go or if they want to do a Des Headland and leave.

Roos has to manage this club similiar to how Sheedy manages Essendon - rebuilding has to be done but at the same time satisfactory type results need to occur on the field.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Originally posted by Damien
Swans Premiers 1909, 1918, 1933

Just one in my lifetime Swans, just one.

I dunno how old you are, but I begin to fear that I at least won't live long enough to see a premiership flag flying above the SCG.

[footyhead]

Originally posted by Damien


There is also no guarantee whatsoever that finishing bottom would get us the players we need anyway.

Finishing bottom should not be considered desirable.
But being so afraid of falling while rebuilding a team, short circuits the process. Just as in economic theory, when a floor price is set, so also is the ceiling price.
Essendon are a bad example to compare us with, as they already have something we lack - respect earned from long term premiership success !

[Damien]

Originally posted by Ruckman
I dunno how old you are, but I begin to fear that I at least won't live long enough to see a premiership flag flying above the SCG.

26 - I have always thought surely one day, and if all going well I live to 60 plus, you would think I would see at least one, but I am sure Swans fans alive in 1960, or 1970 thought and perhaps still think that tooo......

It will happen - HAS TO!

1/16 chance each year!!

[liz]

Originally posted by footyhead


Liz... but might I remind you of the fact that Brisbane finished last in 1998 !

They did, but it is hard to link the benefits they obtained from so doing to their current success - certainly not to the extent that they can be held as an example of what success "bottoming out" can deliver.

[SwallowdaFonz]

A few thoughts on issues raised so far in this thread:

1. A big factor in Brisbane's success has been the willingness of the players to forego salary rises in exchange for another flag. Normally a top side like that will win a flag and then struggle to keep the playing group together with the resulting salary cap pressures E.g. Essendon of 2000 were also thought to be possibly the greatest side ever but they had to start unloading stars. That's why the constant carping about the salary cap concession misses the point.

2. I reckon aiming to make the finals every year is a good goal because it seems a sensible platform for making a bid at a flag. Some years you will not be close to a flag even if you make the finals; other years you will be a real chance. And you never know when that fleeting chance might present itself e.g. Swans last year. The problem with bottoming out is that things do not work to plan, and you can't set a timetable for a flag - you need to seize the chances that come your way whenever they do. Which could be any year you make the finals.

3. When criticising a club for failing in a given year, bear in mind that there are 16 teams and by definition of this competition some will fail and some will succeed. Success and failure are judged by ladder position and wins, not merit or desert. I know, that sounds trite, but it surprises me that no-one ever seems to acknowledge it. For example, all 16 teams may improve their act for 2005 and put in better on-field and off-field efforts. But 6 or 8 or 10 of those teams will still "fail" and be criticised for not recruiting the right players, not managing well enough, not putting in enough etc. It is inevitable but not logical that half the clubs are failures. OK, not winning flags makes us unhappy as fans but should we overeact to a win-loss ratio?

[footyhead]

Originally posted by liz
".........what success "bottoming out" can deliver.

It is not the bottoming out that will deliver the success, but rather the permission to not be worried about the outcome (re end of year ladder position), for that crucial period of rebuilding.
As far as I can see, the Swans under Roos where allowed that luxury for about half of the 2003 season. Ever since then it is pretty clear the finals have been the priority- because of the reasons discussed above.
Because of this I think the Swans may have lost a great opportunity under Roos. I hope I am wrong, but if a flag does not materialis in the next 5 years, I think that the thinking and constraints of the current administration will be responsible.

[Mike_B]

Originally posted by SwallowdaFonz
A few thoughts on issues raised so far in this thread:

1. A big factor in Brisbane's success has been the willingness of the players to forego salary rises in exchange for another flag. Normally a top side like that will win a flag and then struggle to keep the playing group together with the resulting salary cap pressures E.g. Essendon of 2000 were also thought to be possibly the greatest side ever but they had to start unloading stars. That's why the constant carping about the salary cap concession misses the point.

2. I reckon aiming to make the finals every year is a good goal because it seems a sensible platform for making a bid at a flag. Some years you will not be close to a flag even if you make the finals; other years you will be a real chance. And you never know when that fleeting chance might present itself e.g. Swans last year. The problem with bottoming out is that things do not work to plan, and you can't set a timetable for a flag - you need to seize the chances that come your way whenever they do. Which could be any year you make the finals.

3. When criticising a club for failing in a given year, bear in mind that there are 16 teams and by definition of this competition some will fail and some will succeed. Success and failure are judged by ladder position and wins, not merit or desert. I know, that sounds trite, but it surprises me that no-one ever seems to acknowledge it. For example, all 16 teams may improve their act for 2005 and put in better on-field and off-field efforts. But 6 or 8 or 10 of those teams will still "fail" and be criticised for not recruiting the right players, not managing well enough, not putting in enough etc. It is inevitable but not logical that half the clubs are failures. OK, not winning flags makes us unhappy as fans but should we overeact to a win-loss ratio?

Great post!!! Thought I'd quote it all so it can get another read.

[originalswan]

It seems that everyone is a genius after the fact.

The point is that most Swans supporters seemed fairly optimistic about our chances of beating St Kilda and then pushing Port and possibly Brisbane (especially given our recent history against the Lions). Don't forget we were favourites to beat the Saints.

I was happy to accept Paul Roos' initial warning of medium term pain for longer term gain when he first came in. We all know we didn't drop as expected in 2003 but in fact had a very good year! Obviously not as good as a Premiership but regardless one that gave us hope for the future.

It now seems the majority have lost all hope simply because of the result in the St Kilda game.

Perhaps we could have dropped off to gain high draft picks in anticipation of future success, but SUCCESS would NOT have been guaranteed with high picks. Otherwise if my memory serves me right we had Picks 3, 4 and 8 in 1998 but no corresponding meaningful success with these guys.

My point is High draft picks are obviously valuable, but you also need the nucleus of established seasoned stars in a team to get you the ultimate prize of a Premiership.

And the only way you obtain the above is through an intelligent and forward thinking recruiting department.

In passing I wonder how we would have travelled with the likes of Hird, Carey and Longmire in our past teams - again Point being
the recruiting department is paramount in any long term success and not necessarily simply a top 5 Pick.

[SimonH]

All supporters of the 'bottoming out' theory who haven't been dissuaded by everything else that's been written on this forum:

1. The last team to win the flag without having made the finals the previous year was Adelaide in 1997 (and their success certainly wasn't due to priority draft picks). Almost invariably, a team looking to take the next step up must have learnt about the pressure of finals the hard way the previous year.

2. How does 2nd bottom (5 wins), 4th bottom (7.5 wins), bottom (3.5 wins), bottom (1 win), bottom (4 wins) and 12th (8 wins) sound? With all of those lovely high draft picks, good enough to guarantee at least 3 premierships, huh? Um, no- they are the Swans 1990-95 results. (And I defy anyone to demonstrate that when drafting youngsters, the Swans' success rate was/is significantly different to any other team in the comp.)

3. Go through the Brisbane list, player by player, and work out where they came from.

In fact, 1998 was a criminal underperformance with a quality list. It had no causative link with their 2001-3 successes. The Brisbane list has been accrued from a variety of sources (including taking toll of the odd competitive advantage they've been given by the AFL) over a period in excess of a decade, i.e. harking back to Bears/Fitzroy time. And it's included both developing younger players, and buying/trading in mature talent. Real life, tragically, is complex.

Anyone who believes that we should be trying to finish bottom (and win fewer than 5 games) in 2005-2007 in the belief that the priority picks will produce 6 genius legends who will lead us to a premiership in 2008/9 and beyond is (no doubt well intentioned but) ignorant.

We have only 4 players who are within a year or 2 of retiring (pessimistically including Micky O). There are no older players, and practically no mid-career players, regularly playing for the seconds. In neither 2003 nor 2004 were there any old hacks who we've been giving a gig regardless of form and the availability of developing young players in the 2nds who should be taking their spots, in the hope of artificially inflating our ladder position. And we have a core most of whom have played a couple of seasons with each other and gelled together. We are structurally in the place where a football side wants to be- Adelaide, for example, are not.

Those who want to throw out all of our 21/22 year olds and replace them with new 17/18 year olds would be posting the same messages of disappointment to the same forum in 4 years' time if that occurred.

We have a core of youth. We have a good coach. We just need to trust that he and his team of trade negotiators can top up our list with quality players in areas of need, without forgetting drafting a few youngsters for 2008 and beyond, to get us from the second tier to the very top of the pile. There's always a good chance we won't succeed- it's not easy having a job where your odds of being adjudged a successful worker in any given year are roughly 1 in 16- but I don't think we're in a bad spot to give it a shake.

PS Wot you said, SwallowdaFonz and liz! You posted yrs while I was drafting the above. Great minds, etc.

[swansrule100]

this year has been quite good
i can see a good structure emerging and some finals experience being gained..

we have won two finals in the last two years which is a great platform

i believed we could win this years flag... we didnt oh well now ill watch the finals as an impartial spectator and hope that geelong or brissie win!

2005 i will be back again believing we can win the flag

this year was not a failure!!!!