Why so negative??

[liz]

The thing that confuses me most about this notion that we don't have sufficient talent to win a premiership is that we have shown ourselves capable of beating the best teams. Not just the occasional unexpected, soul stirring victory, rather too frequently for it to be a fluke.

I'm not suggesting that we have the most talent laden squad - simply that the blend of talent, discipline and spirit that it does have can match it with the better teams. Yes, there is work to be done in becoming more consistent and making less heavy work of "lesser" teams. But I would have thought we had far more cause to be gloomy if we were regularly beating the Hawthorns and Dogs of this world but always coming up short against the Lions and Saints of this world.

[ROK Lobster]

Originally posted by chammond

Paul Roos, to my knowledge, has never said that we can't win the flag.

Let me rephrase that then. I should perhaps have said that "I suspect that Paul Roos does not think we can win the flag with our current list and he has implied such many times". If the coach says that we are a few good players away from becoming a force, and that we have a big jump to get to where we want to be, then I take this to mean that he thinks that we do not have to depth of talent in the list to win the flag. Why else did he go to trade week in an aggressive frame of mind?

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by chammond
Paul Roos, to my knowledge, has never said that we can't win the flag.

Of course he would never say such a thing, however his comments no doubt indicate that he thinks we're not quite in the league of the teams that are vying as potential favourites to win the flag and for us to do so is a bit of a long shot.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by liz
The thing that confuses me most about this notion that we don't have sufficient talent to win a premiership is that we have shown ourselves capable of beating the best teams. Not just the occasional unexpected, soul stirring victory, rather too frequently for it to be a fluke.

Absolutely, however I think ROK Lobster highlighted a critical point - we get up for some big games, but we struggle to maintain that form through successive big games, or even when we have to face a weaker team after a big game the previous week. Our finals performances in the past two years is indicative of this.

I'm not suggesting that we have the most talent laden squad - simply that the blend of talent, discipline and spirit that it does have can match it with the better teams. Yes, there is work to be done in becoming more consistent and making less heavy work of "lesser" teams. But I would have thought we had far more cause to be gloomy if we were regularly beating the Hawthorns and Dogs of this world but always coming up short against the Lions and Saints of this world.

Certainly, and I don't there is any need to be gloomy and I don't think anyone is. However, realistically we are much further behind a run at the flag than other teams, and making up that ground is a huge ask.

[ROK Lobster]

Originally posted by liz
The thing that confuses me most about this notion that we don't have sufficient talent to win a premiership is that we have shown ourselves capable of beating the best teams. Not just the occasional unexpected, soul stirring victory, rather too frequently for it to be a fluke.

I'm not suggesting that we have the most talent laden squad - simply that the blend of talent, discipline and spirit that it does have can match it with the better teams. Yes, there is work to be done in becoming more consistent and making less heavy work of "lesser" teams. But I would have thought we had far more cause to be gloomy if we were regularly beating the Hawthorns and Dogs of this world but always coming up short against the Lions and Saints of this world.

Yep, we can beat them and beat them regularly but it takes so much from the players physically, and I expect mentally, that they struggle to get up for the next week. We do not have the depth of talent to rest Goodes, Williams, Maxfield. Nick Davis was rushed back a couple of times, and Schneider. It is developing but it is not there yet - hence Roos attempt to snag some ready made players at the trade table...

I AM NOT GLOOMY. I am looking forward to next year. I think we will improves and I think that in 2-3 years we will be having a crack at it. Just not next year

[liz]

Originally posted by ROK Lobster
I think we will improves and I think that in 2-3 years we will be having a crack at it. Just not next year

I think the age profile of our squad means that predicting 3 years, maybe even two years, ahead is pretty tough.

We have our core of players in the 24-28 age range. While there is no reason to presume that players like Magic, Leo, Baz, Schaubs, Kirky will be gone in 3 years time, it is very hard to predict how close to their best they will be. We can say with reasonable certainty that Ball, Maxfield and Nicks won't still be playing in 3 years time, and quite possibly Willo as well.

If we are a force in 3 years time it will be because a significant number of our younger players - Willoughby, Schmidt, LRT, Schneider, Ablett, Bevan, Monty et al - have become really good players. They may well do, but it's hard to predict.

It is far less of a leap of faith to expect a couple of them to really come on next year to support the existing senior core.

[ROK Lobster]

Originally posted by liz
I think the age profile of our squad means that predicting 3 years, maybe even two years, ahead is pretty tough.

We have our core of players in the 24-28 age range. While there is no reason to presume that players like Magic, Leo, Baz, Schaubs, Kirky will be gone in 3 years time, it is very hard to predict how close to their best they will be. We can say with reasonable certainty that Ball, Maxfield and Nicks won't still be playing in 3 years time, and quite possibly Willo as well.

If we are a force in 3 years time it will be because a significant number of our younger players - Willoughby, Schmidt, LRT, Schneider, Ablett, Bevan, Monty et al - have become really good players. They may well do, but it's hard to predict.

It is far less of a leap of faith to expect a couple of them to really come on next year to support the existing senior core.

That's fair enough and I really hope that you are right. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.

[motorace_182]

We CAN win a flag with our current squad! We were pratically 1/4 away from one in 2003! We may have lost Cressa since then, and Willo may have fallen off, but we have if anything a stronger list. Kirk, B1, B2, Hall, Leo etc have all come on in leaps and bounds since then. We then have a youngish list waiting to develop. If people claim we cant win a flag next year, their kiddin themsleves.

[timthefish]

Originally posted by motorace_182
We CAN win a flag with our current squad!

yes yes yes we can.

1. we have to continue to win against (external) expectations at the rate we have been

2. we have to win according to expectations. this has been our downfall for years but i don't believe in jinxes so i'm confident roos will make this our project this year. if we do this, (1) will get harder as expectations against us will decrease.

3. with "normal" diminshment of older and improvement of younger players we'll still be top eight.

4. with
- a small forward or other new addition succeeding in the midfield as an attacking player.
- saddo/lrt strengthening up as a kpp backman.
- ball/doyle/jolly rotating through the ruck to give a second tall forward option.
- goodes having a fresh start.
- davis getting his @@@@ together
- a good run with injuries (port notwithstanding, the most important ingredient in a modern premiership)

we will be a very powerful team.

if just some of these things occur, we will still be top four contenders

[footyhead]

Sure , sure, the Swans are going to win the flag next year !
Everyone here should get real the Swans will not win a flag for at least the next 4 years. I have listed the reasons , so have others. All you blind supporters keep on keeping on!
Never give up thats the way ... you really know what your talking about! If you keep talking the Swans up long enough , they are sure to win the flag !
The Swans need a rebuild and a clean out.

[sharpie]

i'd call him a troll, but i'd never expect a troll to be that persistent.

[motorace_182]

Originally posted by footyhead
Sure , sure, the Swans are going to win the flag next year !
Everyone here should get real the Swans will not win a flag for at least the next 4 years. I have listed the reasons , so have others. All you blind supporters keep on keeping on!
Never give up thats the way ... you really know what your talking about! If you keep talking the Swans up long enough , they are sure to win the flag !
The Swans need a rebuild and a clean out.

Mate, we have heard your points, thats why we choose to ignore them. If you arent going to get excited about YOUR footy club, then why bother turning up week in, week out? Crack a smile for once in your life and try and see some positive signs in the club.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by motorace_182
We CAN win a flag with our current squad! We were pratically 1/4 away from one in 2003!

Realistically it was a little more than 'a quarter'. We were behind for much of the game and were belted in the end to lose by 7 goals.

We may have lost Cressa since then, and Willo may have fallen off, but we have if anything a stronger list. Kirk, B1, B2, Hall, Leo etc have all come on in leaps and bounds since then. We then have a youngish list waiting to develop.

But that still doesn't alleviate our biggest problem - the lack of an attacking midfield.

If people claim we cant win a flag next year, their kiddin themsleves.

Most people are not saying we can't, but rather that is not likely.

[timthefish]

Originally posted by footyhead
Sure , sure, the Swans are going to win the flag next year !
Everyone here should get real the Swans will not win a flag for at least the next 4 years. I have listed the reasons , so have others. All you blind supporters keep on keeping on!
Never give up thats the way ... you really know what your talking about! If you keep talking the Swans up long enough , they are sure to win the flag !
The Swans need a rebuild and a clean out.

you arrogant piece of baggage.

CAN does not equal WILL.
WON'T does not equal CAN'T

if you can't visualise or even fantasise circumstances that might occur within the next four years that could possibly lead to a premiership then i suggest you have absolutely no understanding of the game or the swans and a pathetic imagination to boot.

what is so magical about four years? what is the brilliant possibility your crystal ball has conjured up in five years time that is no chance of occuring before then.

where the hell is your precious rebuild going to come from? we had rubbish picks this year because of our strong performance last year. there was very little available in the trade period as there will be in the pre-season draft. exactly which older players would you dump for the thin pickings that are around. are you a fan of tanking the team and a couple of seasons to scrape up priority picks?

i think the swans are unlikely to win next year as it is a tough competition and we are currently less than a leading light, but there IS the possibility if things go our way.

[motorace_182]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Realistically it was a little more than 'a quarter'. We were behind for much of the game and were belted in the end to lose by 7 goals.

We were 3 points down at 3/4 time and were on an absolute roll! We were then blown out of the water unfortunately by a superior outfit. However we were far more cmopetitive overall then the pathetic Pies.