A Talented Team

[sharp9]

I believe we could have one sooner rather than later. Like this year. There's been a bit of press lately about AFL teams reverting to picking footballers who can run abit rather than runners who can kick a bit. The latter MIGHT get you in to the finals if you are very disciplined. The former is REQUIRED to win a premiership.

Ergo some thoughts on a team going forward this year. Talent first (assuming they can also get their fair share of the ball). Once you sort out the talent you can decide where that player should (or in the case of Schneider CAN) play.

There must be some sort of mathematical formula where T = talent and B = ability to get the ball, whereupon the greates sums determine who gets picked.

In the midfield you can add to the equation Q = number of possession opposition quality player does NOT get.

So T + B + Q = n

No player scores maximums on all factors, of course. Even a Judd can fall down when a good opponent (for example Williams in the QF) has an impact of his own.

So my midfield rankings go

Williams
Kirk
Kennelly
McVeigh
Buchanan
J. Bolton
Maxfield
Moore
Crouch
Ablett
Mathews
Bevan
Schneider
Potter
Spriggs
Fosdike

I don't consider any other any chance to play midfield this year. Now looking down the list one might see a very credentialled player low down, either because he lacks T (Mathews, Crouch) or he lacks B (Schneider, Bevan) or he lacks Q (Fosdike, Spriggs)

This leads me to decide where (other than the midfield) a player might play.

Hence Schneider and Bevan would tend to go to the to the forward pockets or half forward flanks. Crouch and Mathews to the back pockets or half back flanks, Ablett and Moore to the Bench, being genuine back-up midfielders. And Fosdike and Spriggs to the Magoos.

So my team is taking shape.


Five midfielders - Williams, Kirk, Kennelly, McVeigh, J. Bolton

Two Small Forwards - Buchanan, N.Davis

Two Small Backs - Crouch, Mathews

Two Medium Forwards - Nicks, O'Keefe

Two Medium Backs - Barry, Goodes

Two Tall Forwards - Hall, O'Loughlin

Two Tall Backs - Schauble, Roberts - Thomson

One Ruckman - Ball

Bench

One Ruckman/Tall Forward - Doyle
One Medium - C. Bolton
Two Smalls - Schneider, Bevan

Emergencies

One Tall - Saddington (forward only)
Two Smalls - Maxfield, Moore

Back - up (in order)

Ruck - Jolly
Talls - James, Vogels, Campbell, Powell
Mediums - Dempster, M.Davis, Sundqvist
Smalls - Ablett, Potter, Fosdike, Spriggs, Willoughby

Of course there is never a full list to choose from so at least three from the emergencies down would be taking the field. Hence Maxfield will always play, it's just a matter of slotting in depending on who is injured.

Looking at my list I would replace any of the mediums with Dempster, for example. If Leo is still injured at rd 1 it would be B2 to start and Dempster to the bench. Well that's my theory and i'm sticking to it (At least until someone burst my bubble!)

[footyhead]

Re: A Talented Team

Originally posted by sharp9
I believe we could have one sooner rather than later. Like this year. There's been a bit of press lately about AFL teams reverting to picking footballers who can run abit rather than runners who can kick a bit. The latter MIGHT get you in to the finals if you are very disciplined. The former is REQUIRED to win a premiership.

Ergo some thoughts on a team going forward this year. Talent first (assuming they can also get their fair share of the ball). Once you sort out the talent you can decide where that player should (or in the case of Schneider CAN) play.

There must be some sort of mathematical formula where T = talent and B = ability to get the ball, whereupon the greates sums determine who gets picked.


In the midfield you can add to the equation Q = number of possession opposition quality player does NOT get.

So T + B + Q = n

No player scores maximums on all factors, of course. Even a Judd can fall down when a good opponent (for example Williams in the QF) has an impact of his own.

So my midfield rankings go

Williams
Kirk
Kennelly
McVeigh
Buchanan
J. Bolton
Maxfield
Moore
Crouch
Ablett
Mathews
Bevan
Schneider
Potter
Spriggs
Fosdike

I don't consider any other any chance to play midfield this year. Now looking down the list one might see a very credentialled player low down, either because he lacks T (Mathews, Crouch) or he lacks B (Schneider, Bevan) or he lacks Q (Fosdike, Spriggs)

This leads me to decide where (other than the midfield) a player might play.

Hence Schneider and Bevan would tend to go to the to the forward pockets or half forward flanks. Crouch and Mathews to the back pockets or half back flanks, Ablett and Moore to the Bench, being genuine back-up midfielders. And Fosdike and Spriggs to the Magoos.

So my team is taking shape.


Five midfielders - Williams, Kirk, Kennelly, McVeigh, J. Bolton

Two Small Forwards - Buchanan, N.Davis

Two Small Backs - Crouch, Mathews

Two Medium Forwards - Nicks, O'Keefe

Two Medium Backs - Barry, Goodes

Two Tall Forwards - Hall, O'Loughlin

Two Tall Backs - Schauble, Roberts - Thomson

One Ruckman - Ball

Bench

One Ruckman/Tall Forward - Doyle
One Medium - C. Bolton
Two Smalls - Schneider, Bevan

Emergencies

One Tall - Saddington (forward only)
Two Smalls - Maxfield, Moore

Back - up (in order)

Ruck - Jolly
Talls - James, Vogels, Campbell, Powell
Mediums - Dempster, M.Davis, Sundqvist
Smalls - Ablett, Potter, Fosdike, Spriggs, Willoughby

Of course there is never a full list to choose from so at least three from the emergencies down would be taking the field. Hence Maxfield will always play, it's just a matter of slotting in depending on who is injured.

Looking at my list I would replace any of the mediums with Dempster, for example. If Leo is still injured at rd 1 it would be B2 to start and Dempster to the bench. Well that's my theory and i'm sticking to it (At least until someone burst my bubble!)

I like this team, but would they really drop the Captain ? If not then I think he should not be captain this year, this team is crying out for selection on merit.
I also like the idea of Keneally in the middle.

[liz]

It's an interesting starting point for an analysis but maybe a bit simplistic / two dimensional.

In particular, the use of the word "talent" is a bit dubious because it means different things to different people and in different contexts. Indeed, some players have talent at reading the play and anticipating where the action will to - hence their ability to get to the ball.

I think what you are referring to by "talent" is really disposal skill. Even in that category, however, there are many facets - ie there are different skills that need to be executed and not all players are equally good at them. Plus some are OK at executing them but also consistent, while others can sometimes execute them exquisitely but are less consistent. Which is preferrable?

Other aspects not really covered explicitly - but maybe contained within other variables - include grunt / enforcing skills, leadership (eg the ability to signal the time to lift to the rest of the team, something that Maxfield still does better than most), foot speed, brain speed, endurance etc etc.

Quite apart from each player having each attribute to varying degrees, it is important that there is a good mix within the team so that opposition players can be effectively matched up and, ideally, mismatches created in our favour.

I accept that any "model" requires simplification of all the possible variables. However, in a game like football where the range of attributes of a team is so varied I reckon it's as important to consider what each of the "lower rated" players contributes to the team rather than just rank them on an absolute scale.

As an example, there is probably room for a Spriggs / Fosdike player in the team even if they are small and disposal sometimes a bit iffy simply because they can keep running all day. If the rest of your midfield comprises the likes of Williams, Maxfield, Schneider, Moore - all of whom, at the moment, lack the ability to run all afternoon - you need a couple who do. In an ideal world that role will be filled by the likes of McVeigh who also has great endurance but, hopefully, also has skills a notch up from Fosdike or Spriggs.

On your specific rankings, I reckon you have Moore far too high at the moment. Sure, he looks like he may become a very good player but it is very early days yet and it's a bit of a push to rate him near the top of the list, ahead of the likes of Crouch and Bevan even.

[sfan]

Re: A Talented Team

Two Tall Forwards - Hall, O'Loughlin

Not sure O'Loughlin qualifies as a tall forward? Leave out Nicks and play Jolly in the square?

[swansrule100]

Re: A Talented Team

Originally posted by sharp9
I believe we could have one sooner rather than later. Like this year. There's been a bit of press lately about AFL teams reverting to picking footballers who can run abit rather than runners who can kick a bit. The latter MIGHT get you in to the finals if you are very disciplined. The former is REQUIRED to win a premiership.

Ergo some thoughts on a team going forward this year. Talent first (assuming they can also get their fair share of the ball). Once you sort out the talent you can decide where that player should (or in the case of Schneider CAN) play.

There must be some sort of mathematical formula where T = talent and B = ability to get the ball, whereupon the greates sums determine who gets picked.

In the midfield you can add to the equation Q = number of possession opposition quality player does NOT get.

So T + B + Q = n

No player scores maximums on all factors, of course. Even a Judd can fall down when a good opponent (for example Williams in the QF) has an impact of his own.

So my midfield rankings go

Williams
Kirk
Kennelly
McVeigh
Buchanan
J. Bolton
Maxfield
Moore
Crouch
Ablett
Mathews
Bevan
Schneider
Potter
Spriggs
Fosdike

IMHO you have williams too high and jude bolton too low.
A friend of mine (a swans fan) thinks saddington should play midfield, any thougts?

[swansrule100]

after re reading the original post i was curious that doyle is ahead of jolly.

The talk around jolly when recruited seemed to be he was here for senior football. I think he should play ahead of doyle.
I also think there isnt room for three ruckman (ball, doyle,jolly) which is a shame because doyle and jolly will hopefully work will together for the next few years.

No doubt injuries will determine the ruck this year a.p.u. At least we have some reasonable depth for once.

[TheHood]

Interesting call on the Doyle/Jolly thing.

I thought Doyley outplayed Jolly on quality of touches on Saturday.

I did think the short run-up hampered Jolly to an extent because it suited Darcy better. Jolly didn't really adapt, use his head or even decide to take some punishment in an effort (some of the bounces were terrible though).

For mine, Jolly will have to improve greatly before Rd 1. He wasn't second string to Jeff White for nothing.

[sharp9]

Well Liz, you bit on my main point which is that disposal ability should be weighted higher IMO. More to the point I think we have the ability to have higher disposal ability in our midfield where currently it is the worst in the league. Willimas had a poor year last year, hopefully due to injury he kicked nearly as badly as Jude...OK that's an exageration, but it was poor by his standards.

He has been centimetre perfect this year

So the point is that after watching the game on Saturday when the ball was in the midfield I noticed myself wanting it to be in certain players hands, and not others.....ie Moore, Buchanan, McVeigh, Schneider rather than Jude.

When Fossy or Spriggs have it you are just praying they can somehow get it to a team-mate. There's absolutely no expectation that that team mate will be some distance up the field!

My nearly entire point is that I am questioning the ethic of putting players in just because they can run. If they do get the ball and it just flits about, what's the point? In close ball winning players who can do something creative with it should be selected IMO. They can't be expected to run like Kirk or Judd as well. Speaking of Kirk, I think the refence to, as you put it, grunt, leadership is covered under keeping opponents out of the play. Jude, for instance has LOTS of grunt...goes sliding into the bottom of packs. This counts for, I'm afraid, bugger all when his opponent picks up the ball. Kirk is the best player in the league at minimising an opponet's output and it is no coincidence he is super high in the leadership/grunt stakes.

Jude is not a leader at this stage IMO. It's not quite an example that I would recommend McVeigh following, for example.

Kirky, on the other, has worked on his disposal skills to such a levedl that, even though he is not flash he hardly ever makes a cold clanger and nearly always disposes of the ball to the advantage of a team mate who is in a better position than him.

We are the worst team in the league at clearances. ( I mean real clearances where the ball winning player gets it to a team mate - there was one game last year where Jude had seven or eight clearances and EVERY SINGLE ONE was coughed up or resulted in another ball-up/throw in. His opponent - Harris, had 11 clearances for no cough ups and 8 disposals to a team mate) We are the worst team in the league for getting the ball into the opposition 50. Bar none.

These two things are DIRECTLY related.

Fosdike nearly always fumbles the first grab. Jude is nearly always facing the wrong way when he gets a ball from clearance and kicks blindly.

The reason for Crouch's relatively low rating is that his value as a defensive player is so high. He gets a bit wasted in the midfield traffic.

Doyle is streets ahead of Jolly on last Saturday's evidence. Jolly was shocking in the ruck and poor around the ground...apart from two good marks. Maybe he was just nervous. Difficult to understand why a so called Ruckman would not bother looking at the ball and trying to win it during a ruck contest. That was pathetic. Doyle really surprised me with how much ground he covered.

[sharp9]

Saddington could be considered an option on the wing....but that's a position where you really do want to be able to run some (remember Maxi in his hey day?) Kennelly would be perfect. I have no idea what Saddington and Dempster's running is like. But I do like the idea of a tall wing man (Goodes is another possiblity) who can regularly win the ball in the air from a long kick rather than leaving it to the ruckmen (dodgy disposal) or half forwards who have to take more time as they need to lead so far up the ground to mark on the wing.

[mocaholic]

Originally posted by sharp9
When Fossy or Spriggs have it you are just praying they can somehow get it to a team-mate. There's absolutely no expectation that that team mate will be some distance up the field!

Good post overall - especially the above. They remind me of Mark Orchard.

[swansrule100]

Originally posted by sharp9
Saddington could be considered an option on the wing....but that's a position where you really do want to be able to run some (remember Maxi in his hey day?) Kennelly would be perfect. I have no idea what Saddington and Dempster's running is like. But I do like the idea of a tall wing man (Goodes is another possiblity) who can regularly win the ball in the air from a long kick rather than leaving it to the ruckmen (dodgy disposal) or half forwards who have to take more time as they need to lead so far up the ground to mark on the wing.

i prefer goodes for this role (and would be moving kennelly to the midfield anyway)... he is so athletic (when not injured) tall and fast so is difficult to match up on.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Originally posted by swansrule100
after re reading the original post i was curious that doyle is ahead of jolly.

The talk around jolly when recruited seemed to be he was here for senior football. I think he should play ahead of doyle.
I also think there isnt room for three ruckman (ball, doyle,jolly) which is a shame because doyle and jolly will hopefully work will together for the next few years.

BUGGER THAT !!!!!!!!!!!

It's almost as if your suggesting we should play Jolly because he's just been recruited.

Doyle outperformed Jolly against both Essendon and Footscray.

[swansrule100]

Originally posted by Ruckman
BUGGER THAT !!!!!!!!!!!

It's almost as if your suggesting we should play Jolly because he's just been recruited.

Doyle outperformed Jolly against both Essendon and Footscray.

i think jolly has out performed doyle over their careers. I think the club would pick jolly ahead of doyle, maybe im wrong, but its a hunch

[Whitefox]

Originally posted by Ruckman

It's almost as if your suggesting we should play Jolly because he's just been recruited.

Doyle outperformed Jolly against both Essendon and Footscray.

Both have been quite good - though it wouldn't matter if they recruited and played Clark Keating if the blokes sniffing around underneath aren't doing their job.

[thommo]

mate your midfield rankings are nowhere! there gooooone. outa the park ridiculous lol.