The next six weeks - how will we go?

[cruiser]

Originally posted by TheMase
Brisbane will be without both Simon Black and Jonathon Brown which will be a huge advantage to us (consider they no longer have Lynch aswell!)

That's probably what Saints fans thought before Thursday night.

[Schneiderman]

Brisbane will also almost certainly be missing:

Charman - suspended (2 weeks offered, may go to the tribunal so this is not certain yet)

Lappin - ankle. Looked bad so it could be more than 2 weeks.

I think we may just win this one personally, but the Roos match this weekend I think is tougher. Controlling Wells and getting maximum output against their backs will be the challenge.

[cruiser]

I think we'll beat the Roos, have a good chance against Brisbane (our recent record there is good), will thrash Adelaide, beat Melbourne at home, lose to West Coast (although I can remember wins in Perth) and trounce Essendon at home. I think we could be 6/7 so long as players perform and injuries stay away.

[Sanecow]

I have to say, it is exciting going to see the Swans lose once a year at Subi.

[penga]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
Controlling Wells and getting maximum output against their backs will be the challenge.

put willo on him and hurt him the other way, make him accountable judd-style

[Thunder Shaker]

Re: The next six weeks - how will we go?

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
Round 2 - Kangaroos at Manuka (Canberra)
Round 3 - Brisbane at the Gabba
Round 4 - Adelaide at the SCG
Round 5 - Melbourne at the SCG
Round 6 - West Coast at Subi
Round 7 - Essendon at Telephone Company stadium

The next six weeks will be a true test of our form. All of those games are winnable, but all are loseable as well. If we have a 5-2 record after 7 rounds I'll be happy.

Let's revisit the assessment based on the results and ladder after the first three rounds.

Firstly, it's clear that our finals destiny is in our own hands. In the next three weeks, we will play Adelaide (fourth), Melbourne (first) and West Coast (third). Clearly, our draw is not as soft this year as we thought. If we win all three of those - and this is a big if - we will be well on track for a top-four finish this year. Lose them all, and we will have an uphill run to the finals.

A good result would be 2 wins; West Coast in Perth is always a tough assignment. After seven rounds, I still believe 5-2 is likely, but 4-3 or even 3-4 is on the cards given the quality of the opposition.

Round 7 is Essendon, but I don't rate them this year. Sheesh, the Bombers only beat Hawthorn by 2 points, thanks to a "goal" that should have been a behind. The Bombers look like bottom-four material this year.

[dendol]

Adelaide next week isn't going to be easy either. They totally demolished Port today and always seem to play well against us.

If we lose the next three, a 2 - 4 record means we may be down on confidence when we face the Bombers.. 2 - 5...

yep, the glass is half empty in my house.

[NMWBloods]

I really wouldn't be surprised with a 3-4 position, possibly 4-3 at best.

[Thunder Shaker]

Our chances

Here's how I assess our chances.

Round 4 - Adelaide at the SCG
Adelaide in good form, and the Crows have a good record at the SCG. 50%.

Round 5 - Melbourne at the SCG
Melbourne beat us at home last year and look strong this year. 40%.

Round 6 - West Coast at Subi
Toughest assignment in football. 25%.

Round 7 - Essendon at Telephone Company stadium
Bombers look weak this year. 75%.

Combining these, we get:
4 wins: 3.75%
3 wins: 21.875%
2 wins: 40.625%
1 win: 28.125%
0 wins: 5.625%

[Charlie]

Surely the home ground factor gives us at least level pegging with Melbourne.

They've been good - but they've only played Essendon, the Dogs and Geelong. That's one good team and two stragglers. It's not as if they are clearly the best team in the competition. They will have also played all four games in Melbourne before travelling to play us.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by Charlie
[Melbourne have] been good - but they've only played Essendon, the Dogs and Geelong.

A good point. The Swans do have a history of inflicting first losses on fancied sides.Brisbane 2003, St Kilda 2004....

[ugg]

Adelaide were pumped up today for the Showdown which may be a good thing for us as they may suffer a letdown on Sunday.

[Schneiderman]

Re: Our chances

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
Round 5 - Melbourne at the SCG
Melbourne beat us at home last year and look strong this year. 40%.

Thats was at Telstra Stadium. This time its at the SCG (thank god) where the power of Neitz is severly limited. Plus the 2003 Round 5 turnaround (like the one we witnessed last night), the one that defined that year in truth, will still be in everyone's minds.

If we had lost last night I would have been less optimistic, but with that under our belt, and the way we won it, means I am far more bullish about our prospects now.

I still reckon 5-2 after 7.

[barry]

Originally posted by dendol
Adelaide next week isn't going to be easy either. They totally demolished Port today and always seem to play well against us.

Adelaide are a team like Hawthorn who also used to trouble us. Basically they had a good ruck division that served a good midfield with first use.

Now our ruck division is much better, so I'm not worried about Adelaide. The showdown is all about passion not class, so wont translate into any meaningful long term form.

[NMWBloods]

Adelaide's midfield's performing pretty well. Rest of it is ordinary though.