The next six weeks - how will we go?

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  • cruiser
    What the frack!
    • Jul 2004
    • 6114

    #16
    Originally posted by TheMase
    Brisbane will be without both Simon Black and Jonathon Brown which will be a huge advantage to us (consider they no longer have Lynch aswell!)
    That's probably what Saints fans thought before Thursday night.
    Occupational hazards:
    I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
    - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

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    • Schneiderman
      The Fourth Captain
      • Aug 2004
      • 1615

      #17
      Brisbane will also almost certainly be missing:

      Charman - suspended (2 weeks offered, may go to the tribunal so this is not certain yet)

      Lappin - ankle. Looked bad so it could be more than 2 weeks.

      I think we may just win this one personally, but the Roos match this weekend I think is tougher. Controlling Wells and getting maximum output against their backs will be the challenge.
      Our Greatest Moment:

      Saturday, 24th Sept, 2005 - 5:13pm

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      • cruiser
        What the frack!
        • Jul 2004
        • 6114

        #18
        I think we'll beat the Roos, have a good chance against Brisbane (our recent record there is good), will thrash Adelaide, beat Melbourne at home, lose to West Coast (although I can remember wins in Perth) and trounce Essendon at home. I think we could be 6/7 so long as players perform and injuries stay away.
        Occupational hazards:
        I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
        - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

        Comment

        • Sanecow
          Suspended by the MRP
          • Mar 2003
          • 6917

          #19
          I have to say, it is exciting going to see the Swans lose once a year at Subi.

          Comment

          • penga
            Senior Player
            • Jan 2003
            • 2601

            #20
            Originally posted by Schneiderman
            Controlling Wells and getting maximum output against their backs will be the challenge.
            put willo on him and hurt him the other way, make him accountable judd-style
            C'mon Chels!

            Comment

            • Thunder Shaker
              Aut vincere aut mori
              • Apr 2004
              • 4207

              #21
              Re: The next six weeks - how will we go?

              Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
              Round 2 - Kangaroos at Manuka (Canberra)
              Round 3 - Brisbane at the Gabba
              Round 4 - Adelaide at the SCG
              Round 5 - Melbourne at the SCG
              Round 6 - West Coast at Subi
              Round 7 - Essendon at Telephone Company stadium

              The next six weeks will be a true test of our form. All of those games are winnable, but all are loseable as well. If we have a 5-2 record after 7 rounds I'll be happy.
              Let's revisit the assessment based on the results and ladder after the first three rounds.

              Firstly, it's clear that our finals destiny is in our own hands. In the next three weeks, we will play Adelaide (fourth), Melbourne (first) and West Coast (third). Clearly, our draw is not as soft this year as we thought. If we win all three of those - and this is a big if - we will be well on track for a top-four finish this year. Lose them all, and we will have an uphill run to the finals.

              A good result would be 2 wins; West Coast in Perth is always a tough assignment. After seven rounds, I still believe 5-2 is likely, but 4-3 or even 3-4 is on the cards given the quality of the opposition.

              Round 7 is Essendon, but I don't rate them this year. Sheesh, the Bombers only beat Hawthorn by 2 points, thanks to a "goal" that should have been a behind. The Bombers look like bottom-four material this year.
              "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

              Comment

              • dendol
                fat-arsed midfielder
                • Oct 2003
                • 1483

                #22
                Adelaide next week isn't going to be easy either. They totally demolished Port today and always seem to play well against us.

                If we lose the next three, a 2 - 4 record means we may be down on confidence when we face the Bombers.. 2 - 5...

                yep, the glass is half empty in my house.

                Comment

                • NMWBloods
                  Taking Refuge!!
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 15819

                  #23
                  I really wouldn't be surprised with a 3-4 position, possibly 4-3 at best.
                  Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                  "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                  Comment

                  • Thunder Shaker
                    Aut vincere aut mori
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 4207

                    #24
                    Our chances

                    Here's how I assess our chances.

                    Round 4 - Adelaide at the SCG
                    Adelaide in good form, and the Crows have a good record at the SCG. 50%.

                    Round 5 - Melbourne at the SCG
                    Melbourne beat us at home last year and look strong this year. 40%.

                    Round 6 - West Coast at Subi
                    Toughest assignment in football. 25%.

                    Round 7 - Essendon at Telephone Company stadium
                    Bombers look weak this year. 75%.

                    Combining these, we get:
                    4 wins: 3.75%
                    3 wins: 21.875%
                    2 wins: 40.625%
                    1 win: 28.125%
                    0 wins: 5.625%
                    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

                    Comment

                    • Charlie
                      On the Rookie List
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 4101

                      #25
                      Surely the home ground factor gives us at least level pegging with Melbourne.

                      They've been good - but they've only played Essendon, the Dogs and Geelong. That's one good team and two stragglers. It's not as if they are clearly the best team in the competition. They will have also played all four games in Melbourne before travelling to play us.
                      We hate Anthony Rocca
                      We hate Shannon Grant too
                      We hate scumbag Gaspar
                      But Leo WE LOVE YOU!

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                      • Thunder Shaker
                        Aut vincere aut mori
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 4207

                        #26
                        Originally posted by Charlie
                        [Melbourne have] been good - but they've only played Essendon, the Dogs and Geelong.
                        A good point. The Swans do have a history of inflicting first losses on fancied sides.Brisbane 2003, St Kilda 2004....
                        "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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                        • ugg
                          Can you feel it?
                          Site Admin
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 15971

                          #27
                          Adelaide were pumped up today for the Showdown which may be a good thing for us as they may suffer a letdown on Sunday.
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                          • Schneiderman
                            The Fourth Captain
                            • Aug 2004
                            • 1615

                            #28
                            Re: Our chances

                            Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
                            Round 5 - Melbourne at the SCG
                            Melbourne beat us at home last year and look strong this year. 40%.
                            Thats was at Telstra Stadium. This time its at the SCG (thank god) where the power of Neitz is severly limited. Plus the 2003 Round 5 turnaround (like the one we witnessed last night), the one that defined that year in truth, will still be in everyone's minds.

                            If we had lost last night I would have been less optimistic, but with that under our belt, and the way we won it, means I am far more bullish about our prospects now.

                            I still reckon 5-2 after 7.
                            Our Greatest Moment:

                            Saturday, 24th Sept, 2005 - 5:13pm

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                            • barry
                              Veterans List
                              • Jan 2003
                              • 8499

                              #29
                              Originally posted by dendol
                              Adelaide next week isn't going to be easy either. They totally demolished Port today and always seem to play well against us.

                              Adelaide are a team like Hawthorn who also used to trouble us. Basically they had a good ruck division that served a good midfield with first use.

                              Now our ruck division is much better, so I'm not worried about Adelaide. The showdown is all about passion not class, so wont translate into any meaningful long term form.

                              Comment

                              • NMWBloods
                                Taking Refuge!!
                                • Jan 2003
                                • 15819

                                #30
                                Adelaide's midfield's performing pretty well. Rest of it is ordinary though.
                                Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                                "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                                Comment

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