4th

[cruiser]

Originally posted by barry
So 3 from 5. Could easily be 4 if we can get our act into gear.

[NNWBloods will say lucky to win 1]

I wish I could share your optimism but at the moment I'm tending towards NMW's pessimism.

I havent seen any evidence of a Richmond implosion, especially after they only lost to West Coast by 2 points on the weekend. West Coast are tough anywhere and they are a vastly better side than the team Sydney thrashed last September. Adelaide at that cold, wind swept lump of concrete called AAMI STadium is always a tough assignment for Sydney and one it rarely wins. Geelong at home maybe, Melbourne away tough.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by barry
[NNWBloods will say lucky to win 1]

This sort of attribution to me is really rather tedious - actually bother having a read of what I say. It's as pathetic as the stupid journalists who write about our matches without actually watching them.

"Will be interesting to see how things go in the next 4 games - all winnable. We actually have a very good run coming up."

"I think that the whole competition is quite even (read: very ordinary) gives us a very good chance relative to other years."

And I've also commented we have the potential to be 8-6 and to even win 13-14 games still.

But, as usual, don't let facts get in the way of your views...

[Rizzo]

It's a lottery which Fremantle team will turn up to play (somewhat like the Swans).

The Pies look like turning it around.

Rounds 14 to 18 will make or break the season.

By the time we face the Dons I'm guessing their players will be fighting for a guersy to wear next season ;-)

No easy games kids.

[barry]

Originally posted by cruiser
I wish I could share your optimism but at the moment I'm tending towards NMW's pessimism.

I havent seen any evidence of a Richmond implosion, especially after they only lost to West Coast by 2 points on the weekend. West Coast are tough anywhere and they are a vastly better side than the team Sydney thrashed last September.

I have a feeling that Richmond are coming unstuck. WC still suspetable away from home. Richmond imploding = close game.

Richmond will be bottom of the 8 by years end at best.

Adelaide at that cold, wind swept lump of concrete called AAMI STadium is always a tough assignment for Sydney and one it rarely wins.

Fair enough.

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
This sort of attribution to me is really rather tedious - actually bother having a read of what I say. It's as pathetic as the stupid journalists who write about our matches without actually watching them.

"Will be interesting to see how things go in the next 4 games - all winnable. We actually have a very good run coming up."

"I think that the whole competition is quite even (read: very ordinary) gives us a very good chance relative to other years."

And I've also commented we have the potential to be 8-6 and to even win 13-14 games still.

But, as usual, don't let facts get in the way of your views...

Lighten up and tell us how many you think we will win then.

[NMWBloods]

I'm sure you can tell me how many I think...

A random number generator has as much chance as anything else predicting our wins.

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I'm sure you can tell me how many I think...

I have.

[Thunder Shaker]

Forget this talk of home finals and dream runs into Grand Finals. It's unlikely to happen this year.

We have played five of the seven other sides in the eight and lost to them all. That is not the form of a side that runs onto the MCG on the last Saturday in September.

As cruiser correctly points out, July is going to be the month that makes or breaks our season. I think we will win two games in July: Geelong and the Eagles. West Coast have a poor record at the SCG (about 4 wins), so poor that in 1992 - one of the years that we got the spoon and the Eagles got the flag - we beat them at the SCG early in the season. Geelong also struggle to win games outside of Victoria. Adelaide, Melboune and Richmond will be tough with the Adelaide game being the toughest.

It's simple, peoples. Four of those five games are eight-point games against rivals for the top four. We simply have to win the majority of those games to finish in the top four and be a serious contender this year.

[ROK Lobster]

6th Sydney Swans 24 95%

We have lost to:
1st West Coast 40 140%
2nd Melbourne 32 118%
3rd Adelaide 28 125%
7th Kangaroos 24 90%
8th St Kilda 20 104%

We have beaten:
10th Bulldogs 20 99%
11th Port 18 80%
12th Brisbane 16 95%
14th Essendon 16 84%
15th Hawthorn 12 97%
16th Carlton 10 79%

Yet to play
4th Geelong 28 123%
5th Richmond 28 105%
9th Fremantle 20 100%
13th Collingwood 16 87%

As well as the 4 yet to play we play, all of which are danger games with the Pies in good form we have to play the WCE again (home) and Melb and Adel (away).

To finish as high as 4th would be an exceptionally good result from here.
To make the 8 itself will be a challenge, though 4 'easy' games to finsih will help enormously.

[NMWBloods]

Pfft ROK - call yourself a true supporter - providing all these statistics is just negative and undermines the faith in the team. We can only beat those teams who score less points than us.

[SimonH]

I couldn't believe it when people were talking about 'last roll of the dice for Port to make the finals' this week.

In terms of the team's confidence and self-belief maybe, but in terms of the ol' W/L record, Port could still finish 2nd without inventing a string of improbable results (and on their 2003 and 2004 2nd-half-of-year formline, you wouldn't rule it out). So we can speculate all we want about likely Ws and Ls, but this year the three logical responses to anyone who tries a 'we'll win this one, we'll lose that one' line of reasoning are:
1. Collingwood v WCE
2. Fremantle v Geelong
3. Pretty much any match involving Brisbane.

If the 2nd half of the year unfolds the way the first half has, 12 wins should make the 8 regardless of percentage, and this could even be the first year in living memory (ever?) that 11 wins makes the grade. Of course, this depends on the teams in the bottom 5 not giving up the ghost, and continuing to pick up the odd 'upset' win.

The only things we can say with confidence about Sydney are that we won't come first (barring both a meteoric form line of ours and WCE playing in hail every week for the rest of the year), and we'd struggle to come last. The AFL's 'even comp' policy cops a fair bit of flak (particularly from tipsters), but it does keep everyone on their toes!

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by SimonH
this could even be the first year in living memory (ever?) that 11 wins makes the grade.

2002 - West Coast 11 wins
1999 - Sydney 11 wins
1996 - Hawthorn 11 wins

1997 - Brisbane 10 wins

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by SimonH
2. Fremantle v Geelong

I'd change that to 2. Any game involving Freo

I have to agree with Cruiser though, that the litmus test comes after the Collingwood game. Assuming we can win the next two home games (and yes I know thats a big assumption to begin with), it really then comes down to how we play against Richmond at the G and Geelong at home. Win those and we get some confidence going into the following three tough rounds.

It is not improbable that we can finish as high as second this year. The only thing we have to do is beat teams above us on the second go around. Melbourne, Geelong, Richmond and Adelaide need to be beaten before we can move past them, so thats where our crunch matches are.

I still believe we are currently heading for a 5-6 spot on the ladder, possibly decided by percentage, and that we will make the Semis at the least. If that comes to pass, then purely injuries and form on the day will decide whether we make it to the GF, and with luck we dont have to face WC until the big day itself.

[barry]

Originally posted by ROK Lobster
6th Sydney Swans 24 95%

We have lost to:
1st West Coast 40 140%
2nd Melbourne 32 118%
3rd Adelaide 28 125%
7th Kangaroos 24 90%
8th St Kilda 20 104%

We have beaten:
10th Bulldogs 20 99%
11th Port 18 80%
12th Brisbane 16 95%
14th Essendon 16 84%
15th Hawthorn 12 97%
16th Carlton 10 79%

Yet to play
4th Geelong 28 123%
5th Richmond 28 105%
9th Fremantle 20 100%
13th Collingwood 16 87%

As well as the 4 yet to play we play, all of which are danger games with the Pies in good form we have to play the WCE again (home) and Melb and Adel (away).

To finish as high as 4th would be an exceptionally good result from here.
To make the 8 itself will be a challenge, though 4 'easy' games to finsih will help enormously.

Nice theatre, but as a scientific experiement its not that convincing because our measurement interferes with the result.

In other words, the teams we have beaten are below us in no small part because we beat them.

[barry]

Originally posted by Schneiderman


It is not improbable that we can finish as high as second this year.

Nah, our percentage is too poor to get in the top 2 or 3.

Funny enough, our poor % could see us miss out on 2 or 3, and get 4th - which is actually better for a flag tilt.