Next week's cracker match!

[Bunyip]

Originally posted by cruiser
Too far from your Eastern Suburbs comfort zone?

NOOOooooooo!

I live right near Homebush, so it convenient, but I still say...NNOOOOoooo...I tolerate going to games at Stade du Telstra, but only just.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
Of course, we would have to beat the Eagles or Adelaide in the finals at some point to make the Grand Final, preferably in the first week in an away final.

Not necessarily. Still six rounds to go and in two weeks time we might be sitting in 2nd place, with Adelaide sliding downwards into 4th or 5th.

[giant]

Originally posted by cruiser
Not necessarily. Still six rounds to go and in two weeks time we might be sitting in 2nd place, with Adelaide sliding downwards into 4th or 5th.

Led inspirationally by the greatest CHB the game has known.

Then again in two weeks time we might be struggling to stay in the 8.

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by giant
Then again in two weeks time we might be struggling to stay in the 8.

Even if we lose the next two, if we win the last four we should still finish 4th. That depends mostly on Melbourne's and St Kilda's form though, because I have them both squeeking into the 8, but with some rousing victories they could charge back up the ladder.

[giant]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
Even if we lose the next two, if we win the last four we should still finish 4th. That depends mostly on Melbourne's and St Kilda's form though, because I have them both squeeking into the 8, but with some rousing victories they could charge back up the ladder.

Really? I would've thought with our draw & %, that all of Cats, Saints or Roos would be more likely than us to finish top 4.

If we win one of the next 2, that should improve our chances markedly but realistically they are 2 of our toughest games for the year.

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by giant
Really? I would've thought with our draw & %, that all of Cats, Saints or Roos would be more likely than us to finish top 4.

If we win one of the next 2, that should improve our chances markedly but realistically they are 2 of our toughest games for the year.

Well put your own picks into the Toyota Ladder Predictor

With my (notably dodgy selections) only a Melbourne form revival and/or a St Kilda surge will topple us. The Roos are the only other real challengers, and as long as we get them at the SCG we should keep our noses (% only) in front.

We still have to win the last four, and if we can nab the first two as well we should be able to snatch 2nd spot. Well you have to set goals

EDIT: In fact we can even drop the Adelaide game and still finish 2nd, since Adelaide play the Roos (A) this week, Port (H) and WCE (H), all of which are losable.

Geelong have to play St Kilda, Melbourne and Richmond, all of who are desperate, as well as WCE even though at home.

Its a lot tighter than some people make it out to be.

[giant]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
Well put your own picks into the Toyota Ladder Predictor

With my (notably dodgy selections) only a Melbourne form revival and/or a St Kilda surge will topple us. The Roos are the only other real challengers, and as long as we get them at the SCG we should keep our noses (% only) in front.

We still have to win the last four, and if we can nab the first two as well we should be able to snatch 2nd spot. Well you have to set goals

EDIT: In fact we can even drop the Adelaide game and still finish 2nd, since Adelaide play the Roos (A) this week, Port (H) and WCE (H), all of which are losable.

Geelong have to play St Kilda, Melbourne and Richmond, all of who are desperate, as well as WCE even though at home.

Its a lot tighter than some people make it out to be.

Wow, that's cool, thanks - I can waste hours on that little baby!

My "guesses" have Port in real trouble & Brissie still a real top 4 chance.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by giant
If we win one of the next 2, that should improve our chances markedly but realistically they are 2 of our toughest games for the year.

If we are contenders and not pretenders, the Wet Toast and Adelaide games are games that we must win.

[ScottH]

In my pessimistic tips, I have us coming 5th and play Melb in Sydney, week one.

Disclaimer: My tips have been scheizenhousen, this year!

[giant]

Round 20 - North v Saints & Syd v Lions are perhaps the 2 critical games in the next 6 weeks.

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
If we are contenders and not pretenders, the Wet Toast and Adelaide games are games that we must win.

Nonsense. Brisbane lost to us at home in round 20, 2003 but then went on to beat us in the finals and win the flag. Try to pay attention.

[ScottH]

Originally posted by Sanecow
Nonsense. Brisbane lost to us at home in round 20, 2003 but then went on to beat us in the finals and win the flag. Try to pay attention.

Yeh I'd prefer to lose this week, if it meant we would beat them in a final.

[liz]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
If we are contenders and not pretenders, the Wet Toast and Adelaide games are games that we must win.

West Coast yes. We could probably drop the Adelaide game and still be decent contenders, though we'd need to give them a mighty fine run for their money.

Injuries will still play a huge part in where the teams sit going into September and what shape they're in at that point.

We currently have one of the shortest injury lists to established players that I can recall us ever having (over the past decade, which is as long as my Swans memory reaches back). We all know that injuries to either Barry will knock us for six, but even if they don't happen, we don't know how we'd fare if we lost, say, Jude and Kirky for even a couple of weeks at the same time. Or how about B2 and Kennelly simulatenously?

We like what we;ve seen from Dempster, Moore, Malceski and Vogels (well - most of us, anyway) but how would the team cope against the Lions in a few weeks if all four of them were in the team, plus maybe a rusty Fixter and a Schmidt too, having to cover injuries and not spending most of the game on the bench?

Adelaide and North Melbourne are two other teams who haven't suffered greatly on the injury front either.

Someone's luck is going to change - let's just hope it's not ours.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
Well put your own picks into the Toyota Ladder Predictor

I wont get any work done now!

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by Sanecow
Nonsense. Brisbane lost to us at home in round 20, 2003 but then went on to beat us in the finals and win the flag. Try to pay attention.

In 2003, Brisbane beat Collingwood twice during the home and away season, beat Port Adelaide once and lost to Port Adelaide once (by 1 point). The Swans beat them twice, but that didn't count for much when we went down to them by 44 points in the preliminary final. In other words, of the top 4 in 2003, Brisbane played six games in the home and away season for three wins.

On the other hand, of the current top 8, the Swans have not beaten West Coast, Adelaide, the Kangaroos, St Kilda or Richmond this year. If our form is not good enough to beat top 8 sides regularly, then we won't amount to much in the finals. Our record against the top four so far is three games for one win. If we cannot beat top four sides during the home and away season, by what miracle will we suddenly start beating them in finals? Thus, my point is clear: we must demonstrate our ability to beat top sides if we are a realistic chance this year.

One of us isn't paying attention and it's not me.