Ladder Predictor

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  • Legs Akimbo
    Grand Poobah
    • Apr 2005
    • 2809

    Ladder Predictor

    Was playing around with the "Toyota ladder predictor' on the afl website and here's the deal...

    If we win all remaining games and the favourites win other games, we'll finish second. If same happens, but we lose to Adelaide next week, we'll finish third. If we finish third, we'll face Adelaide at AAMI stadium in week 1 - big ask. If we lost that, we'd have a home game to get into the preliminary. If we won that, we'd most likely face West Coast in W.A ...i.e. probably screwed.

    So, assuming we can win the last three winnable games, the game vs. Adelaide is for second spot on the ladder and massively increased chance of participation in GF via home final in week 1. We MUST win this game.

    We are however, very unlikely to miss the finals now. Even if we won only one of the remaining games, 48 points would probably see us sneak in.
    He had observed that people who did lie were, on the whole, more resourceful and ambitious and successful than people who did not lie.
  • midaro
    On the Rookie List
    • Jan 2003
    • 1042

    #2
    Yep.
    We'll make the finals for certain now, but third would be death.

    Comment

    • swans_premiers
      On the Rookie List
      • Feb 2003
      • 1101

      #3
      Adelaide haven't won 6 games in a row ever and they're currently sitting on 5.

      Let's hope they stay on 5.
      Adam Goodes: Rising Star 99, Brownlow 2003, 2006
      Swans Premiers 1909, 1918,1933,2005, 2012

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      • Refried Noodle
        Warming the Bench
        • Jul 2005
        • 327

        #4
        Re: Ladder Predictor

        Originally posted by Legs Akimbo
        If we win all remaining games and the favourites win other games, we'll finish second. If same happens, but we lose to Adelaide next week, we'll finish third. If we finish third, we'll face Adelaide at AAMI stadium in week 1 - big ask. If we lost that, we'd have a home game to get into the preliminary. If we won that, we'd most likely face West Coast in W.A ...i.e. probably screwed.
        Entered in my tips to it too and with reasonable tipping gave Sydney finishing in 4th spot and two wins clear of 5th (Winning all games cept v Adelaide). I can't decide if 3rd is better or worse than 4th.
        That's the problem with modern day medicine - there's no more natural selection of the species.
        No wonder there's so many Collingwood fans.

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        • DST
          The voice of reason!
          • Jan 2003
          • 2705

          #5
          Re: Re: Ladder Predictor

          Originally posted by Refried Noodle
          Entered in my tips to it too and with reasonable tipping gave Sydney finishing in 4th spot and two wins clear of 5th (Winning all games cept v Adelaide). I can't decide if 3rd is better or worse than 4th.
          This year, fourth is much better than third.

          If we played West Coast first up in Perth, it would mean we would have the luxury of playing them with the double chance.

          No way would I want to be going to Perth to play a knock out final.

          Also, word is the MCG deal is still not ready which would mean a Adelaide v Sydney prelim in Melbourne rather than Footy Park which makes it a real 50/50 game.

          But that is getting to carries away 5 more tough games (for varying reasons) to come but our fate is in our own hands now.

          DST
          "Looking forward to a rebuilt, new, fast and exciting Swans model in 2010"

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          • Charlie
            On the Rookie List
            • Jan 2003
            • 4101

            #6
            Re: Re: Ladder Predictor

            Originally posted by Refried Noodle
            Entered in my tips to it too and with reasonable tipping gave Sydney finishing in 4th spot and two wins clear of 5th (Winning all games cept v Adelaide). I can't decide if 3rd is better or worse than 4th.
            Beat Adelaide next week, and it might not matter - they have West Coast at Subiaco in round 22... meaning that all we'd need to do is keep winning to claim second.
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            • cruiser
              What the frack!
              • Jul 2004
              • 6114

              #7
              Re: Re: Re: Ladder Predictor

              Originally posted by DST
              This year, fourth is much better than third.

              If we played West Coast first up in Perth, it would mean we would have the luxury of playing them with the double chance.

              No way would I want to be going to Perth to play a knock out final.

              Also, word is the MCG deal is still not ready which would mean a Adelaide v Sydney prelim in Melbourne rather than Footy Park which makes it a real 50/50 game.
              Good point. If we dont beat Adelaide this weekend to try to grab 2nd then we should hope for 4th. But if we do play a final in Adelaide, we have a good finals record there
              Occupational hazards:
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              • cruiser
                What the frack!
                • Jul 2004
                • 6114

                #8
                Re: Re: Re: Ladder Predictor

                Originally posted by Charlie
                Beat Adelaide next week, and it might not matter - they have West Coast at Subiaco in round 22... meaning that all we'd need to do is keep winning to claim second.
                They also have a 'showdown' against Port and their record in local derbys is not good.
                Occupational hazards:
                I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
                - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

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                • sydfan83
                  Senior Player
                  • Jan 2003
                  • 2929

                  #9
                  Re: Re: Re: Ladder Predictor

                  Originally posted by DST
                  Also, word is the MCG deal is still not ready which would mean a Adelaide v Sydney prelim in Melbourne rather than Footy Park which makes it a real 50/50 game.
                  This would be great for us, obviously, but it would be a shame for Adelaide getting screwed by the MCC contract twice in four years.
                  Oh well, what a pity!

                  I somehow think that if the Swans qualify for a home prelim, regardless of where they finish in the top 4 (that is if they remain top 4), the AFL will bend over backwards to make sure that it is played at Telstra Stadium - they don't want to miss out on the big $$$ that would come from another 70,000+ crowd at Homebush.

                  Comment

                  • barry
                    Veterans List
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 8499

                    #10
                    Re: Re: Re: Re: Ladder Predictor

                    Originally posted by sydfan83

                    I somehow think that if the Swans qualify for a home prelim, regardless of where they finish in the top 4 (that is if they remain top 4), the AFL will bend over backwards to make sure that it is played at Telstra Stadium - they don't want to miss out on the big $$$ that would come from another 70,000+ crowd at Homebush.
                    And associated TV rights $$ up for grabs this year.
                    Bigger TV audience in Sydney if the game is in Sydney.

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                    • Schneiderman
                      The Fourth Captain
                      • Aug 2004
                      • 1615

                      #11
                      Originally posted by midaro
                      Yep.
                      We'll make the finals for certain now, but third would be death.
                      Well we could always win it and go straight into the PF. Its not out of the realms of possibility. I think it may have been done before.
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