Smoke and mirrors

[barry]

Originally posted by NMWBloods


Since the war from 18 finals games = 5 wins - 4-2 in Sydney, 1-0 in Adelaide, 0-11 in Melbourne (8 MCG, 2 Wav, 1 TD). Our average losing margin in those 13 losses is 47 points. Our average winning margin is 10 points (4 points excluding the WCE win).

Whats the war got to do with it?
Surely between 1945 and 1980 all finals were considered neutral venues.

Of the finals:
4-2 in Sydney is a little poor
1-0 in Adelaide is sensational
0-X in Melbourne is not so good, but apart from the capper years we would have been playing a side substantially higher than us on the ladder in there home town.

Anyway, based on the ladder, I cant see us playing a Melbourne final this year at all unless its the GF, and then most likely it will be a neutral venue.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
One thing in our favour relative to previous years though is that there are no real standout teams in the competition.

Not convinced that is true. It seemed to be for the first half of the season when you had to tip purely on week by week form. But now I'd say that the top 4 teams have set up that they are a class above. (With the Roos in some no man's land where they keep producing a miracle in final quarters - yet to see if that happens these last few rounds as the pace picks up.) I can't see any team likely to finish 5-8 that could expect to play in the Grand Final.

[giant]

Last time I checked the margin you win or lose finals by counted for exactly nothing.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by giant
Last time I checked the margin you win or lose finals by counted for exactly nothing.

I was waiting for someone to say that! Would you prefer to play the following week after winning by 10 goals and cruising through the last quarter, or after an intense battering affair where you win by a kick?

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I was waiting for someone to say that! Would you prefer to play the following week after winning by 10 goals and cruising through the last quarter, or after an intense battering affair where you win by a kick?

Or to rephrase that - would you prefer to be Sydney finishing H&A with a game against the Hawks or the Crows and Eagles, playing each other at Subiaco?

[giant]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I was waiting for someone to say that! Would you prefer to play the following week after winning by 10 goals and cruising through the last quarter, or after an intense battering affair where you win by a kick?

I'd prefer to be playing the following week.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by barry
Whats the war got to do with it?

Most football stats are done on a post and pre war basis. Of course, there are also the post mid-1980s and post-1990s ones also when there are more interstate teams.

Surely between 1945 and 1980 all finals were considered neutral venues.

Yep. Then again, there are only 2 finals in that period for us so it hardly affects the analysis.

Of the finals:
4-2 in Sydney is a little poor
1-0 in Adelaide is sensational
0-X in Melbourne is not so good, but apart from the capper years we would have been playing a side substantially higher than us on the ladder in there home town.

0-9 in Melbourne since 1986, and 0-5 from 1996.

NM - GF 96. No.
Bulldogs - EF 97. 3 places 2 wins.
Essendon - EF 99. Yes.
Hawthorn - EF 01. 1 place 1 win.
St Kilda - SF 04. 3 places 3 wins.

Both Hawthorn and StKilda were struggling for form when they came into the games.

Anyway, based on the ladder, I cant see us playing a Melbourne final this year at all unless its the GF, and then most likely it will be a neutral venue.

How much more will the MCG be a neutral venue in the GF than otherwise?

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by giant
I'd prefer to be playing the following week.

That wasn't presented as an option - it was a given!!

[giant]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
That wasn't presented as an option - it was a given!!

We're agreed then - Swans for the GF nws the margin.

[Sean]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
A team like StKilda doesn't really. They have only 2-3 games per year at the MCG.

5 this year but 2-3 plus finals would still be more than us.

We have a pretty decent Melbourne supporter base and not all opponents have big supporter bases overall (eg: Kangaroos). Our Melbourne games seem to have a reasonable showing of supporters.

But, as I said, our opponents will have more - especially in finals. We can possibly outnumber teams like Hawthorn (or North in a bad year) in regular matches because they are crap - no chance of that happening in finals.

Sure going to your 'local' ground is some advantage over flying, but it's not much of a trip from Sydney.

It's not much of a trip from Melbourne to Sydney either but the home team tends to win - same with Melbourne to Adelaide.

Not sure if that means a lot on the day.

It means we would be playing a team that finished above us on the table. The fact that they are better than us probably does mean a fair bit.

I didn't say home state advantage didn't exist - just "not sure how much of an advantage the MCG should be for some Melbourne teams when playing Sydney."

Home teams tend to win against interstate sides - there is a big advantage.

Not saying it was the only reason - however I still think it was a factor - WC were even more crap than us in the rain.

Not according to everyone that I heard talk about it. I think that our wet weather performance was the worst in the AFL.

How do they play in the rain more than us?

Because it rains occasionally in Perth during winter. I think that final is our only wet weather game in Sydney for the last two season - could be wrong.

Of course it is. However, I'm simply noting that the Swans make finals and either just manage to scrape a win or get smashed. Whether that remains the same this year or not remains to be seen.

We didn't just scrape a win last year and many would say that we beat Port the year before reasonably comfortably although a few late goals made it look closer than it really was from memory. The getting smashed in the following final is definitely an issue though.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Not convinced that is true. It seemed to be for the first half of the season when you had to tip purely on week by week form. But now I'd say that the top 4 teams have set up that they are a class above. (With the Roos in some no man's land where they keep producing a miracle in final quarters - yet to see if that happens these last few rounds as the pace picks up.) I can't see any team likely to finish 5-8 that could expect to play in the Grand Final.

Unlikely yes, but you never know what Brisbane (or even Port if they make it) are capable of in September (Port unlikely though as I think their finals run was a bit lucky last year).

West Coast's problem in finals could be their forward line.

'Roos seem to lack consistency to go too far in finals, but then again they are tenacious.

StKilda seem to have the team to do it, but injuries plus 'discipline' may be factors.

For the Swans it is the ability to play on a big ground in a big game and score enough goals in that case.

Adelaide are a bit of an enigma - I can't quite see what it is that works so well for them, but they seem to play with skill and run, and it's worked so far for them.

Bulldogs could do okay now they have a key forward again, but I think they will struggle if they have to travel (assuming they make it).

Melbourne are a wreck, but you never know - they could get it together (if they make it) - it's happened before (although unlikely).

The top 4 teams certainly seem better than the rest, but the gap is perhaps not as large as previous years. Or at least there are no 'powerhouses'.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Sean
5 this year but 2-3 plus finals would still be more than us.

Last year they had 2 - same as us!

But, as I said, our opponents will have more - especially in finals. We can possibly outnumber teams like Hawthorn (or North in a bad year) in regular matches because they are crap - no chance of that happening in finals.

But I'm not sure for some teams if the gap will be that huge.

It's not much of a trip from Melbourne to Sydney either but the home team tends to win - same with Melbourne to Adelaide.

For Sydney it's not the trip - it's the ground IMO.

It means we would be playing a team that finished above us on the table. The fact that they are better than us probably does mean a fair bit.

They may have finished higher on the ladder but it doesn't mean they are significantly better or certainly whether they will be better on the day. Otherwise why bother playing finals.

Home teams tend to win against interstate sides - there is a big advantage.

Again, I'm not saying there isn't. I'm just not sure that the advantage over Sydney should be so huge.

Not according to everyone that I heard talk about it. I think that our wet weather performance was the worst in the AFL.

I picked it as second worst.

Because it rains occasionally in Perth during winter. I think that final is our only wet weather game in Sydney for the last two season - could be wrong.

I can't recall many wet weather games in Perth - I certainly don't remember significantly more than we had.

We didn't just scrape a win last year and many would say that we beat Port the year before reasonably comfortably although a few late goals made it look closer than it really was from memory. The getting smashed in the following final is definitely an issue though.

Last year was the only time we haven't just scraped a win, which is normally exhausting.

[Sanecow]

Subiaco 1967-2004

MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP 
18.9   34.4   87.6  148.9  153.3  104.7   71.5 Mean Rainfall (mm)
3.7    6.9   10.7   16.8   18.8   15.8   13.2 Mean no. of Raindays

Source

Sydney Airport 1929-2004

MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP 
119.5  106.4  103.6  118.5   68.8   79.1   60.5 Mean Rainfall (mm)
12.3   10.9   11.3   10.9    9.2    9.4    9.4 Mean no. of Raindays

Source

It turns out that Perth is wetter late in the footy season, but drier early. It gets pretty wet in June and July.

[Sean]

Originally posted by NMWBloods

I can't recall many wet weather games in Perth - I certainly don't remember significantly more than we had.

It rained when we played there this year I think - not that my argument is helped by that

They have the odd game where it completely persists down. Seem to recall a Demons game last year?

Last year was the only time we haven't just scraped a win, which is normally exhausting.

All of our games seem exhausting but we keep getting wins from somewhere.

As far as the rest of it goes, fact is that we have always played a Victorian side at the MCG since we have been in Sydney. That makes us the underdog - including the GF to a lesser extent. Let's say we have to play there this year prior to the GF - that would probably be against the Saints.

They have played there more than us, could probably get 40000+ supporters to show up, are above us on the table and we have to travel to get there. The odds would be against us.

It's one of the reasons why I don't really think we can win the flag this year - my opinion would be different if we were on course for 2nd.

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by Sean
It rained when we played there this year I think

Confirmed.