Smoke and mirrors

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Sean
As far as the rest of it goes, fact is that we have always played a Victorian side at the MCG since we have been in Sydney. That makes us the underdog - including the GF to a lesser extent. Let's say we have to play there this year prior to the GF - that would probably be against the Saints.

They have played there more than us, could probably get 40000+ supporters to show up, are above us on the table and we have to travel to get there. The odds would be against us.

It's one of the reasons why I don't really think we can win the flag this year - my opinion would be different if we were on course for 2nd.

All fair points.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by Sean
As far as the rest of it goes, fact is that we have always played a Victorian side at the MCG since we have been in Sydney. That makes us the underdog - including the GF to a lesser extent. Let's say we have to play there this year prior to the GF - that would probably be against the Saints.

They have played there more than us, could probably get 40000+ supporters to show up, are above us on the table and we have to travel to get there. The odds would be against us.

It's one of the reasons why I don't really think we can win the flag this year - my opinion would be different if we were on course for 2nd.

Presuming we stay in the Top 4, it'd be fair to say that we have about a 20% chance of the flag - with the Saints - while the Crows and Eagles have about a 30% chance. The first week of the finals will be huge for us: do what we did vs Port while either the Crows or Eagles have finals nerves and then our home game becomes the PF.

Of course, even if that happens we may do what we did against the Lions and lose the home PF. But that was against an exceptional team and we've had another year of finals experience since.

Lose that first week and we may win the flag (Leigh reckons the Lions needed to play every week to win the flag one year) but all you say above would be true and we'd be no more than an outside chance.

It would be interesting to go back to the threads around R5 or 6 when all was doom and gloom and these discussions now would have been regarded as delusional.

[Piobaireachd]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
The aim of the possession game has been to control the tempo. I'm not sure how successful it has been at specifically doing that. It's arguable that it has been more detrimental to us at times than to our opponent.

The jury is also out as to whether we have the game to win finals.

Did we win a final last year?

[Piobaireachd]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I was primarily referring to the ability to win more than one final, to win in Melbourne and, to a lesser extent, to win by decent margins.

The Swans have struggled in these areas for a long long time and whether we can do this now remains uncertain.

And even if we did all that you would probably ask "Yeah but can we do it again"

It's a question well warranted though. Winning by a decent margin though is rubbish. In finals a win is a win. Even more so in the Granny.

[Piobaireachd]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Part of the reason we beat WCE so easily last year was the weather. Our previous biggest winning margin since the war was 12 points. Our highest scores in finals since the war are 104 and 100.

Since the war from 18 finals games = 5 wins - 4-2 in Sydney, 1-0 in Adelaide, 0-11 in Melbourne (8 MCG, 2 Wav, 1 TD). Our average losing margin in those 13 losses is 47 points. Our average winning margin is 10 points (4 points excluding the WCE win).

Of course, the only way we will get to play as a neutral in Melbourne is in the GF against an interstate side, but I'd like not to rely on that. I'm also not sure how much of an advantage the MCG should be for some Melbourne teams when playing Sydney.

Don't mention the war

[Piobaireachd]

Originally posted by Sanecow
Subiaco 1967-2004

MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP 
18.9   34.4   87.6  148.9  153.3  104.7   71.5 Mean Rainfall (mm)
3.7    6.9   10.7   16.8   18.8   15.8   13.2 Mean no. of Raindays

Source

Sydney Airport 1929-2004

MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP 
119.5  106.4  103.6  118.5   68.8   79.1   60.5 Mean Rainfall (mm)
12.3   10.9   11.3   10.9    9.2    9.4    9.4 Mean no. of Raindays

Source

It turns out that Perth is wetter late in the footy season, but drier early. It gets pretty wet in June and July.

It only rains on weekends when the footy is on in Perth

[connolly]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Part of the reason we beat WCE so easily last year was the weather. Our previous biggest winning margin since the war was 12 points. Our highest scores in finals since the war are 104 and 100.

Since the war from 18 finals games = 5 wins - 4-2 in Sydney, 1-0 in Adelaide, 0-11 in Melbourne (8 MCG, 2 Wav, 1 TD). Our average losing margin in those 13 losses is 47 points. Our average winning margin is 10 points (4 points excluding the WCE win).

Of course, the only way we will get to play as a neutral in Melbourne is in the GF against an interstate side, but I'd like not to rely on that. I'm also not sure how much of an advantage the MCG should be for some Melbourne teams when playing Sydney.

This is not accurate. South Melbourne played two post-war finals in 1945. War was officially ended for Australia on 15 August 1945. The mighty Bloods played two post-war finals matches at Princes Park after VP Day. We topped the ladder that year with 16 wins and four losses (last time we have achieved that honour). We beat Collingwood in the second Semi-Final by 11 points (hey lest we forget any victory against the maggots) with the great man Laurie Nash at the age of 35 slotting home the winning goal in the last quarter to break black and white hearts. We lost the Bloodbath Grand Final against the appalling Carlton, but it should be remembered, won the fight. So the record of post-war finals should be amended to read one Melbourne victory at Princes Park

[NMWBloods]

Sorry - should have been post '45. That's how I think of it.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Piobaireachd
And even if we did all that you would probably ask "Yeah but can we do it again"

It's a question well warranted though. Winning by a decent margin though is rubbish. In finals a win is a win. Even more so in the Granny.

Yeah, thanks for this...

[Nico]

Originally posted by Piobaireachd
It only rains on weekends when the footy is on in Perth

The rain in Perth falls mainly on the earth.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Piobaireachd
Did we win a final last year?

Yes - we won a final. Did we win finals?

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
It would be interesting to go back to the threads around R5 or 6 when all was doom and gloom and these discussions now would have been regarded as delusional.

You mean things like ""At the end of the day they're probably too good anyway and (they'll) probably get over the top of you but at least it gives you an opportunity."

Oops... that was Roos...

Who else could be "doom and gloom"?

For my own interest, I found what I wrote after round 6...

...So, by rd 13, if we are serious about this season and Roos is going to turn it around we have fantastic potential to be 8-5.

This is an outstanding run for us and a great chance to improve, and would place us about 4th-6th on the ladder.

It was also a time when you thought that talking about our 2003 accuracy as "unsustainably high" was "a nonsense statement".

[Piobaireachd]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Yeah, thanks for this...

I'm glad I set u straight.

I remember an attack on some other RWO poster just recently because he/her couldn't take someone elses opinion. Horses for courses I guess.

[Piobaireachd]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Yes - we won a final. Did we win finals?

No point replying to this really. Your first reply was enough.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Piobaireachd
I'm glad I set u straight.

I remember an attack on some other RWO poster just recently because he/her couldn't take someone elses opinion. Horses for courses I guess.

Your snide response was 'just a different opinion'?