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Just to increase the pre-game jitters a bit:
With all of the talk of Sydney looking to seal a final 4 berth, it's worth noting that as at today our spot in the 8 is still not assured!
I initially thought that with 9th-placed Port going down last night, and therefore being unable to catch us, we would be safe, but I (like Alan Scott) was wrong.
Writing off Melbourne and Richmond too (can equal our wins but making up the percentage looks beyond them), the teams above us plus the Roos, Brisbane, Geelong, Fremantle and the Dogs can all finish ahead of us. Roos can gather more wins, making percentage redundant. Geelong and Brisbane are guaranteed to finish with a higher percentage than us if we're both on 12 wins (and Brisbane can make 13 wins anyway). Freo are -54 on point difference compared with us, and the Dogs are -112: both extremely easy gaps to make up if they win 2 (or 3) games running and the Swans lose 3. The draw also makes it possible for these teams to all gather the wins they need.
It goes without saying that this scenario is pretty wildly unlikely, as it would require a series of other unfortunate events to occur beyond Sydney just losing 3 in a row.
But it does at least emphasise that we're not far enough ahead of the pack to get cocky, and underscore the importance of today's game: win, and suddenly you wipe off Brisbane, Geelong, Freo and the Dogs in one fell swoop and we're guaranteed of no worse than 5th.
It's a big day. Lookin' forward to it!
With all of the talk of Sydney looking to seal a final 4 berth, it's worth noting that as at today our spot in the 8 is still not assured!
I initially thought that with 9th-placed Port going down last night, and therefore being unable to catch us, we would be safe, but I (like Alan Scott) was wrong.
Writing off Melbourne and Richmond too (can equal our wins but making up the percentage looks beyond them), the teams above us plus the Roos, Brisbane, Geelong, Fremantle and the Dogs can all finish ahead of us. Roos can gather more wins, making percentage redundant. Geelong and Brisbane are guaranteed to finish with a higher percentage than us if we're both on 12 wins (and Brisbane can make 13 wins anyway). Freo are -54 on point difference compared with us, and the Dogs are -112: both extremely easy gaps to make up if they win 2 (or 3) games running and the Swans lose 3. The draw also makes it possible for these teams to all gather the wins they need.
It goes without saying that this scenario is pretty wildly unlikely, as it would require a series of other unfortunate events to occur beyond Sydney just losing 3 in a row.
But it does at least emphasise that we're not far enough ahead of the pack to get cocky, and underscore the importance of today's game: win, and suddenly you wipe off Brisbane, Geelong, Freo and the Dogs in one fell swoop and we're guaranteed of no worse than 5th.
It's a big day. Lookin' forward to it!
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