Playing for a spot in the 4, or the 8?

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  • SimonH
    Salt future's rising
    • Aug 2004
    • 1647

    Playing for a spot in the 4, or the 8?

    Just to increase the pre-game jitters a bit:

    With all of the talk of Sydney looking to seal a final 4 berth, it's worth noting that as at today our spot in the 8 is still not assured!

    I initially thought that with 9th-placed Port going down last night, and therefore being unable to catch us, we would be safe, but I (like Alan Scott) was wrong.

    Writing off Melbourne and Richmond too (can equal our wins but making up the percentage looks beyond them), the teams above us plus the Roos, Brisbane, Geelong, Fremantle and the Dogs can all finish ahead of us. Roos can gather more wins, making percentage redundant. Geelong and Brisbane are guaranteed to finish with a higher percentage than us if we're both on 12 wins (and Brisbane can make 13 wins anyway). Freo are -54 on point difference compared with us, and the Dogs are -112: both extremely easy gaps to make up if they win 2 (or 3) games running and the Swans lose 3. The draw also makes it possible for these teams to all gather the wins they need.

    It goes without saying that this scenario is pretty wildly unlikely, as it would require a series of other unfortunate events to occur beyond Sydney just losing 3 in a row.

    But it does at least emphasise that we're not far enough ahead of the pack to get cocky, and underscore the importance of today's game: win, and suddenly you wipe off Brisbane, Geelong, Freo and the Dogs in one fell swoop and we're guaranteed of no worse than 5th.

    It's a big day. Lookin' forward to it!
  • Schneiderman
    The Fourth Captain
    • Aug 2004
    • 1615

    #2
    Re: Playing for a spot in the 4, or the 8?

    Top 4. Thread closed
    Our Greatest Moment:

    Saturday, 24th Sept, 2005 - 5:13pm

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    • liz
      Veteran
      Site Admin
      • Jan 2003
      • 16770

      #3
      Re: Re: Playing for a spot in the 4, or the 8?

      Originally posted by Schneiderman
      Top 4. Thread closed
      Not quite - though pretty close. We'd have to get walloped by the Roos next week to drop down to 5th by the end of the year.

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      • Schneiderman
        The Fourth Captain
        • Aug 2004
        • 1615

        #4
        Re: Re: Re: Playing for a spot in the 4, or the 8?

        Originally posted by liz
        Not quite - though pretty close.
        Settle. I was just answering the question

        Have a real crunch match against the Roos yet, plus the Hawks last game in Melbourne. And then there's the dreaded last-round injuries to avoid.
        Our Greatest Moment:

        Saturday, 24th Sept, 2005 - 5:13pm

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        • Mike_B
          Peyow Peyow
          • Jan 2003
          • 6267

          #5
          The percentage gap over the Roos means they would have to win by somewhere around the 90pt mark next week to be ahead of us going into Rd 22. So, I would safely say that a win over Hawthorn will mean a top 4 finish. We have guaranteed ourselves a home final though if nothing else. The question of course now is whether its week 1, 2 or 3.

          I'm hoping for week 3!!!

          I'm on the Chandwagon!!!

          If you cannot compete for the premiership, it's better to be young and exciting than middle-aged and dowdy.

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          • Thunder Shaker
            Aut vincere aut mori
            • Apr 2004
            • 4198

            #6
            I like to think we're playing for a spot in the final 2.
            "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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