Okay then, who will be 2005 premiers?

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  • Agent 86
    Senior Player
    • Aug 2004
    • 1690

    #16
    Originally posted by SXP
    The latest Flag betting from Centrebet looks like this:

    $2.20 St Kilda
    $3.50 West Coast
    $6.50 Sydney
    $8.00 Adelaide
    $10.00 Port Adelaide
    $16.00 Geelong

    Any suprises here?
    Adelaide looks like good value when compared to Sydney.

    Comment

    • Thunder Shaker
      Aut vincere aut mori
      • Apr 2004
      • 4205

      #17
      Originally posted by Agent 86
      Originally posted by SXP
      The latest Flag betting from Centrebet looks like this:

      $2.20 St Kilda
      $3.50 West Coast
      $6.50 Sydney
      $8.00 Adelaide
      $10.00 Port Adelaide
      $16.00 Geelong

      Any suprises here?
      Adelaide looks like good value when compared to Sydney.
      To see why, compare the two semifinals. Adelaide's is going to be a lot tougher because they will have no home ground advantage.

      Adelaide are playing Port. Port demolished the Roos last weekend. Adelaide will have NO home ground advantage in the final. We can conclude from the odds that Adelaide will only start slight favourites against Port. I expect the odds to be roughly Adelaide $1.60, Port $2.00.

      On the other hand, the Swans play the Cats. Geelong's recent form outside Victoria has been notoriously fragile, winning only once in 16 games. Therefore, the Swans will start as firm favourites against the Cats. Expect odds like Swans $1.30 Geelong $2.50.
      "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

      Comment

      • NMWBloods
        Taking Refuge!!
        • Jan 2003
        • 15819

        #18
        But once into the prelims, Adelaide may be considered better placed than the Swans.
        Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

        "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

        Comment

        • Sanecow
          Suspended by the MRP
          • Mar 2003
          • 6917

          #19
          St Kilda are unbackable at those odds. To make the Grand Final they should probably be short, but to win it? I don't reckon.

          Comment

          • Thunder Shaker
            Aut vincere aut mori
            • Apr 2004
            • 4205

            #20
            Originally posted by Sanecow
            St Kilda are unbackable at those odds.
            That's the whole point - to make the punters back clubs other than St Kilda. The betting agencies have taken a lot of money for the Saints. If the Saints did win the flag the betting agencies would lose a large amount of money. To discourage further bets on the Saints, and to encourage bets on other clubs, the Saints' odds are shortened to below their true value and the other prices increased.
            "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

            Comment

            • Big Al
              Veterans List
              • Feb 2005
              • 7007

              #21
              Originally posted by NMWBloods
              But once into the prelims, Adelaide may be considered better placed than the Swans.
              Agree. I would think the Crows would fancy their chances against the Eagles in the Prelim.
              ..And the Swans are the Premiers...The Ultimate Team...The Ultimate Warriors. They have overcome the highly fancied Hawks in brilliant style. Sydney the 2012 Premiers - Gerard Whately ABC

              Here it is Again! - Huddo SEN

              Comment

              • cruiser
                What the frack!
                • Jul 2004
                • 6114

                #22
                Assuming we beat Geelong, I think that whoever wins the preliminary between Sydney and St Kilda will decide the premiership.
                Occupational hazards:
                I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
                - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

                Comment

                • legaff
                  On the Rookie List
                  • Sep 2005
                  • 90

                  #23
                  Lost again west coast is Irrelevant

                  The way things have panned out, the loss against may turn out to be irrelevant to our flag chances. Think about it, to actually WIN the premiership we were going to have to beat the Saints in melbourne, regardless of wether that was in the grand final or the prelim (as it has now turned out).

                  Seriously, if we lose to them in the prelim then we would have lost to them in the Grand Final. And i would rather lose in the prelim than make the Grand Final and lose it. It would be way more heartbreaking...a bit like 96.

                  However i do think we can beat them in Prelim. Sydney are just one of those teams that can really surprise you.

                  Comment

                  • cruiser
                    What the frack!
                    • Jul 2004
                    • 6114

                    #24
                    Re: Lost again west coast is Irrelevant

                    Originally posted by legaff
                    to actually WIN the premiership we were going to have to beat the Saints in melbourne, regardless of wether that was in the grand final or the prelim (as it has now turned out).

                    Seriously, if we lose to them in the prelim then we would have lost to them in the Grand Final. And i would rather lose in the prelim than make the Grand Final and lose it. It would be way more heartbreaking...a bit like 96.

                    However i do think we can beat them in Prelim. Sydney are just one of those teams that can really surprise you.
                    That sounds exactly like a conversation I had with a mate at lunchtime.
                    Occupational hazards:
                    I don't eat animals since discovering this ability. I used to. But one day the lamb I was eating came through to me and ever since then I haven't been able to eat meat.
                    - animal psychic Amanda de Warren

                    Comment

                    • NMWBloods
                      Taking Refuge!!
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 15819

                      #25
                      Re: Lost again west coast is Irrelevant

                      Originally posted by legaff
                      The way things have panned out, the loss against may turn out to be irrelevant to our flag chances. Think about it, to actually WIN the premiership we were going to have to beat the Saints in melbourne, regardless of wether that was in the grand final or the prelim (as it has now turned out).

                      Seriously, if we lose to them in the prelim then we would have lost to them in the Grand Final. And i would rather lose in the prelim than make the Grand Final and lose it. It would be way more heartbreaking...a bit like 96.

                      However i do think we can beat them in Prelim. Sydney are just one of those teams that can really surprise you.
                      I actually had similar thoughts.
                      Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                      "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                      Comment

                      • LittleSchneider
                        On the Rookie List
                        • Nov 2004
                        • 582

                        #26
                        Still think Sydney can win it!
                        And the man who started it, the Schneiderman, can kick his third for the quarter. And the swans are in the Grand Final!

                        Comment

                        • Syd Swan
                          Warming the Bench
                          • Apr 2003
                          • 140

                          #27
                          Originally posted by LittleSchneider
                          Still think Sydney can win it!
                          I don't think the Swans can, I know they will.

                          We will play the Saints in the prelim who will have all their stars back. They will be well and truly underdone and we will scrath out a 15 point win. We will then go on to meet Adelaide in the grand final, where our better forward line we be too much for them in the second half and we will go on to win by 29 points full of running.

                          Comment

                          • Big Al
                            Veterans List
                            • Feb 2005
                            • 7007

                            #28
                            Originally posted by Syd Swan
                            I don't think the Swans can, I know they will.

                            We will play the Saints in the prelim who will have all their stars back. They will be well and truly underdone and we will scrath out a 15 point win. We will then go on to meet Adelaide in the grand final, where our better forward line we be too much for them in the second half and we will go on to win by 29 points full of running.
                            Hope your right Syd, I just hope were not underestimating Geelong on Friday Night.
                            ..And the Swans are the Premiers...The Ultimate Team...The Ultimate Warriors. They have overcome the highly fancied Hawks in brilliant style. Sydney the 2012 Premiers - Gerard Whately ABC

                            Here it is Again! - Huddo SEN

                            Comment

                            • NMWBloods
                              Taking Refuge!!
                              • Jan 2003
                              • 15819

                              #29
                              Yeah - getting over Geelong is the first big hurdle.

                              Also, this whole 'underdone' thing is 'overdone' IMO.
                              Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

                              "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

                              Comment

                              • Big Al
                                Veterans List
                                • Feb 2005
                                • 7007

                                #30
                                Originally posted by NMWBloods
                                Yeah - getting over Geelong is the first big hurdle.

                                Also, this whole 'underdone' thing is 'overdone' IMO.
                                If anything the week off makes the Saints even more dangerous.
                                ..And the Swans are the Premiers...The Ultimate Team...The Ultimate Warriors. They have overcome the highly fancied Hawks in brilliant style. Sydney the 2012 Premiers - Gerard Whately ABC

                                Here it is Again! - Huddo SEN

                                Comment

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