Okay then, who will be 2005 premiers?

[Agent 86]

Originally posted by SXP
The latest Flag betting from Centrebet looks like this:

$2.20 St Kilda
$3.50 West Coast
$6.50 Sydney
$8.00 Adelaide
$10.00 Port Adelaide
$16.00 Geelong

Any suprises here?

Adelaide looks like good value when compared to Sydney.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by Agent 86

Originally posted by SXP
The latest Flag betting from Centrebet looks like this:

$2.20 St Kilda
$3.50 West Coast
$6.50 Sydney
$8.00 Adelaide
$10.00 Port Adelaide
$16.00 Geelong

Any suprises here?

Adelaide looks like good value when compared to Sydney.

To see why, compare the two semifinals. Adelaide's is going to be a lot tougher because they will have no home ground advantage.

Adelaide are playing Port. Port demolished the Roos last weekend. Adelaide will have NO home ground advantage in the final. We can conclude from the odds that Adelaide will only start slight favourites against Port. I expect the odds to be roughly Adelaide $1.60, Port $2.00.

On the other hand, the Swans play the Cats. Geelong's recent form outside Victoria has been notoriously fragile, winning only once in 16 games. Therefore, the Swans will start as firm favourites against the Cats. Expect odds like Swans $1.30 Geelong $2.50.

[NMWBloods]

But once into the prelims, Adelaide may be considered better placed than the Swans.

[Sanecow]

St Kilda are unbackable at those odds. To make the Grand Final they should probably be short, but to win it? I don't reckon.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by Sanecow
St Kilda are unbackable at those odds.

That's the whole point - to make the punters back clubs other than St Kilda. The betting agencies have taken a lot of money for the Saints. If the Saints did win the flag the betting agencies would lose a large amount of money. To discourage further bets on the Saints, and to encourage bets on other clubs, the Saints' odds are shortened to below their true value and the other prices increased.

[Big Al]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
But once into the prelims, Adelaide may be considered better placed than the Swans.

Agree. I would think the Crows would fancy their chances against the Eagles in the Prelim.

[cruiser]

Assuming we beat Geelong, I think that whoever wins the preliminary between Sydney and St Kilda will decide the premiership.

[legaff]

Lost again west coast is Irrelevant

The way things have panned out, the loss against may turn out to be irrelevant to our flag chances. Think about it, to actually WIN the premiership we were going to have to beat the Saints in melbourne, regardless of wether that was in the grand final or the prelim (as it has now turned out).

Seriously, if we lose to them in the prelim then we would have lost to them in the Grand Final. And i would rather lose in the prelim than make the Grand Final and lose it. It would be way more heartbreaking...a bit like 96.

However i do think we can beat them in Prelim. Sydney are just one of those teams that can really surprise you.

[cruiser]

Re: Lost again west coast is Irrelevant

Originally posted by legaff
to actually WIN the premiership we were going to have to beat the Saints in melbourne, regardless of wether that was in the grand final or the prelim (as it has now turned out).

Seriously, if we lose to them in the prelim then we would have lost to them in the Grand Final. And i would rather lose in the prelim than make the Grand Final and lose it. It would be way more heartbreaking...a bit like 96.

However i do think we can beat them in Prelim. Sydney are just one of those teams that can really surprise you.

That sounds exactly like a conversation I had with a mate at lunchtime.

[NMWBloods]

Re: Lost again west coast is Irrelevant

Originally posted by legaff
The way things have panned out, the loss against may turn out to be irrelevant to our flag chances. Think about it, to actually WIN the premiership we were going to have to beat the Saints in melbourne, regardless of wether that was in the grand final or the prelim (as it has now turned out).

Seriously, if we lose to them in the prelim then we would have lost to them in the Grand Final. And i would rather lose in the prelim than make the Grand Final and lose it. It would be way more heartbreaking...a bit like 96.

However i do think we can beat them in Prelim. Sydney are just one of those teams that can really surprise you.

I actually had similar thoughts.

[LittleSchneider]

Still think Sydney can win it!

[Syd Swan]

Originally posted by LittleSchneider
Still think Sydney can win it!

I don't think the Swans can, I know they will.

We will play the Saints in the prelim who will have all their stars back. They will be well and truly underdone and we will scrath out a 15 point win. We will then go on to meet Adelaide in the grand final, where our better forward line we be too much for them in the second half and we will go on to win by 29 points full of running.

[Big Al]

Originally posted by Syd Swan
I don't think the Swans can, I know they will.

We will play the Saints in the prelim who will have all their stars back. They will be well and truly underdone and we will scrath out a 15 point win. We will then go on to meet Adelaide in the grand final, where our better forward line we be too much for them in the second half and we will go on to win by 29 points full of running.

Hope your right Syd, I just hope were not underestimating Geelong on Friday Night.

[NMWBloods]

Yeah - getting over Geelong is the first big hurdle.

Also, this whole 'underdone' thing is 'overdone' IMO.

[Big Al]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Yeah - getting over Geelong is the first big hurdle.

Also, this whole 'underdone' thing is 'overdone' IMO.

If anything the week off makes the Saints even more dangerous.