History against Cats, Power

[Go Swannies]

http://afl.com.au/default.asp?pg=news&spg=display&articleid=227775

Hope this settles your nerves a bit. It didn't work for me.

[Schneiderman]

Re: History against Cats, Power

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Hope this settles your nerves a bit. It didn't work for me.

LOL. Same. Actually made me more nervous, because one-sided statistics like this tend to even up over time.

In fairness to Port, their chance against Adelaide is no worse than 50/50 because of the lack of a home-ground advantage.

[EMJ]

Why didn't it work for you - sounds a bit promising.

[NMWBloods]

Re: Re: History against Cats, Power

Originally posted by Schneiderman
LOL. Same. Actually made me more nervous, because one-sided statistics like this tend to even up over time.

Generally they don't as they are one-sided for a very good reason.

However, I agree that your point on Port is valid as the home ground advantage is not there, and also Port is probably stronger than most 8th-placed teams in finals.

[sharpie]

Re: Re: Re: History against Cats, Power

Originally posted by NMWBloods
and also Port is probably stronger than most 8th-placed teams in finals.

Gee that's a big call. As the cliche goes, a week is a long time in football. No one would have said they were particularly strong for an 8th placed side prior to last week's game. They've had one big win. Anyone can do that once. They've been average or worse all year until then. And I'm not convinced how good the Roos were all season, let alone last week. Gotta see them over a few weeks before a comment like that is justified.

[Go Swannies]

Re: Re: Re: Re: History against Cats, Power

Originally posted by sharpie
Gee that's a big call. As the cliche goes, a week is a long time in football. No one would have said they were particularly strong for an 8th placed side prior to last week's game. They've had one big win. Anyone can do that once. They've been average or worse all year until then. And I'm not convinced how good the Roos were all season, let alone last week. Gotta see them over a few weeks before a comment like that is justified.

If I'm still watching them play in a few weeks, I'll be convinced.

BTW, surely the home ground factor would be irrelevant when two Melbourne teams play each other in finals. Or hasn't that happened since the new finals system was introduced?

[sharpie]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: History against Cats, Power

Originally posted by Go Swannies
If I'm still watching them play in a few weeks, I'll be convinced.

That's granted, but you'd say that about any team in the same position any year.

The feeling in the media in the lead up to the semifinals each year is that the two winners of the elimination finals are in good form, while the two losers of the qualifying finals are struggling somewhat. A case in point is that we all felt that the swans were slight favourites going into the semi against the saints last year.

Everyone seems to easily forget that the two losers of the qualifying finals had played against teams far better than the teams that the two winners of the elimination finals beat.

[Thunder Shaker]

Re: History against Cats, Power

Originally posted by Go Swannies
If I'm still watching them play in a few weeks, I'll be convinced.

BTW, surely the home ground factor would be irrelevant when two Melbourne teams play each other in finals. Or hasn't that happened since the new finals system was introduced?

There have been three Victorian derby semifinals under the current finals system. These are: 2000 Kangaroos 16.14 (110) Hawthorn 15.10 (100), 2001 Richmond 10.7 (67) Carlton 7.14 (56) and 2004
Geelong 10.14 (74) Essendon 9.10 (64).

[NMWBloods]

Re: Re: Re: Re: History against Cats, Power

Originally posted by sharpie
Gee that's a big call. As the cliche goes, a week is a long time in football. No one would have said they were particularly strong for an 8th placed side prior to last week's game. They've had one big win. Anyone can do that once. They've been average or worse all year until then. And I'm not convinced how good the Roos were all season, let alone last week. Gotta see them over a few weeks before a comment like that is justified.

Not basing it on last week, but more on the personnel and what they've been capable of in recent years. Their ability to reproduce season performances of recent years is very unlikely now, however to reproduce that form in a short burst, such as finals, where they are now the most experienced team there, is still a possibility. I think they have more chance of causing upsets and progressing than any 8th-placed team as far back as I can remember.

[SXP]

I also believe that Port might upset the Crows this weekend, because of their finals experience and getting back in form just in time for the finals. It is quite possible they will travell to Subi the next week.

[Bart]

erm last time we played a home semi, we lost (albeit under old system)... Crows 1998

[NMWBloods]

We've only played in two semis since '45 - and lost them both!

[ScottH]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
We've only played in two semis since '45 - and lost them both!

SHADDUP!!!!!

[dimelb]

When it comes to football history is bunk.
Form and injuries are everything.
I'm still nervous.

[Go Swannies]

I just spoke to a friend of mine who has followed the Swans since they moved to Sydney. She said she's really nervous today as this is the most complete Swans team she has ever seen. She is worried because she thinks they really can make it. But she isn't positive that we'll beat the Cats tomorrow - or the Saints if we get there. But, as she said "if we lose to the Cats it's because we simply aren't good enough". That didn't make me feel better, either.

Go Swannies