Tweet
Originally posted by dann
If you look at the satellite, that speckled cloud behind the main band of cloud, is where the hail will come from. Now two of the weather models that forecasters use, show most of the signifcant precipitation sliding to the SE of Melbourne- only brushing the area slightly. 0nly showing a trace of rain (0.4 to 1mm). The Bureau's own model - which is semi suspect at best, and is widely known to be unrealible comparitevely, has this colder air impacting on Melbourne more significantly between 5-11pm.
Saying that - the Bureau would be pretty confident in their analysis if they are forecasting hail.
Certainly the other models aren't suggesting a massive Sydney-like downpour - but if a lone thunderstorm floats over the MCG - then it really won't make a difference. Rain is rain....
Here is the radar for further checking today:
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml
If you look at the satellite, that speckled cloud behind the main band of cloud, is where the hail will come from. Now two of the weather models that forecasters use, show most of the signifcant precipitation sliding to the SE of Melbourne- only brushing the area slightly. 0nly showing a trace of rain (0.4 to 1mm). The Bureau's own model - which is semi suspect at best, and is widely known to be unrealible comparitevely, has this colder air impacting on Melbourne more significantly between 5-11pm.
Saying that - the Bureau would be pretty confident in their analysis if they are forecasting hail.
Certainly the other models aren't suggesting a massive Sydney-like downpour - but if a lone thunderstorm floats over the MCG - then it really won't make a difference. Rain is rain....
Here is the radar for further checking today:
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml
Thanks Dann - very interesting.
It's pretty good down here in Melb at the moment, but yes it is Victoria beautiful one day crap the next 3 months!
Comment