Melbourne mafia write off Swans

[hammo]

Mike Sheahan's season preview once again has us middle of the road. Too predictable. No doubt he'll be tipping St Kilda to win the flag just like everyone else in the Melbourne mafia.

Source

[NMWBloods]

A few problems with his analysis...

"Why, then, are so many of us sceptical about their chances this year?

It stems from the fact that Sydney seemed to just sneak in most times, that so many people found fault with the Swans' style of play, that they were regarded as battlers rather than artists.

The Swans won five games by six points or less, and were outscored in the home-and-away competition by 13 clubs, including Carlton.

I agree that our inability to put away some teams, particularly the weaker ones is an issue. On the flipside though, the ability to win close games is normally considered a positive.

"Can they expect to fare as well with injury this year, given nine players played all 26 games and 18 played more than 20 in 2005?"

I agree that this is a major challenge.

"The longer you look at the Swans, the more you wonder about the cynicism."

Exactly. They're just not comfortable saying anything positive.

"Yet, for all that, the doubts persist. Expect a home-and-away finish of 4-6."

I think a finish outside the top 4 will be a disappointing return.

One point though: 4-6 isn't middle of the road - that's 6-10.

[Pommie Swannie]

I actually didn't think it was that bad an article.

Yes, he conveniently uses statistics to suit his view whilst omitting others such as the number of 100+ scores in the season run-in etc.

However, as the article progressed, I thought it was a pretty fair assessment of season 2005 (although the word 'luck' rears its head again - let's not go down that road ...!). Due credit was given to the best players and the depth of the list.

I would be happy with a 4th place finish come Rd 22. If 2005 taught us anything, once you're in the finals ... anything can happen!!

[Charlie]

It's wonderful. The football world refuses to believe that we are capable of winning a flag, in spite of any and all evidence to the contrary (including the conclusive evidence that we have actually won one already). They can't acknowledge without qualification that we might have earned last year's flag, because they know that we aren't good enough to win it.

Doublethink in action. Sheahan has decided it can't happen, then proceeds to provide arguments why it can happen... but these arguments still do not get in the way of concluding what he already knows, which is that we aren't good enough.

[Sanecow]

A home-and-away finish of 4-6 isn't exactly writing the Swans off. We only finished 3rd on the ladder in 2005!

[NMWBloods]

That's right.

Under Roos at the end of each H&A season we have finished 4th, 6th and 3rd.

Premiers in the year after their flag have finished 8th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 13th, 5th, 7th, 5th, 5th, 10th, 6th, 4th, and 7th.

So the only times the premier has finished better than 4th in the following H&A season have been Brisbane (2002-2004) and Essendon (2001).

So it's hard to argue we've been completely written off with a 4th-6th forecast.

[timthefish]

i think 4th-6th is a pretty fair assessment. that gives us at least one home final and from there i'd back us to do anything if our finals preparation is as good as last year.

we're never going to be front runners while we have to play young kids more than other teams so they get at least some exposure to football at a level above the canberra bush league.

[Jeffers1984]

I think it is fair enough. The ruck is where i think the key is for us (Apart from injuries). If Doyle or Chambers can step up and if Jolly can stamp himself as the number 1 ruck spot we will be up there again.

[robbieando]

Originally posted by Jeffers1984
I think it is fair enough. The ruck is where i think the key is for us (Apart from injuries). If Doyle or Chambers can step up and if Jolly can stamp himself as the number 1 ruck spot we will be up there again.

I felt the article was quite a fair prediction of how we shape up for this season. Without a doubt we aren't going to have the same run with injuries, the ruck position is an unknown quanity due to Ball's retirement and the close games of last season could go against us this season. All in all 4th to 6th is a pretty reasonable prediction.

Also felt his named best 22 was right on the money and that the following quote really shows this wasn't a negitive article "Michael O'Loughlin kicked 52 goals last year and didn't finish in the top 10 in the best-and-fairest. That's depth."

[Reggi]

People are overplaying the fitness thing. Roos deliberately played fit players which are too different things. It's more good management than goodluck

We lost our captain (Maxfield) to injury. Arguably Nicks, Schauble, Saddington & Doyle would have been in the mix if they had been fit (much to Paul Bevan's dismay had that been the case).

No everyone is on the Aints bandwagon - Robert Walls basically sadi they have no chance last night, too old, too dependant on to few, to many holes in their side.

That said we only have 29 players who have played senior level and a pretty young side overall

[floppinab]

A lot of the stats bandied about refer to the whole season.

I'd like to see something based on say......... the last 8 games of the year. St. Kilda and the Eagles have shown in recent years that April (or even May/June) champions mean little when it comes to performance in September. I can't believe the Saints have again come out with most guns blazing in the pre-season. I love our approach.

No doubt you need to have some runs on the board in the first 11 games to put you in reasonable position. Runs like the Dogs had mean little if you're not in a position to even make the finals.

On the close games, it's very clear that the club have spent a lot of time on this. The two years preceding Roos was littered with a lot of close losses. It's interesting that they've chosen that approach. It's self evident that the Swans style will produce more closer games. Rather than change the the game style they've chosen to focus on the approach to close games.

The contrast to the demeanour of the players in that St. Kilda game in the last minutes compared to any number of close finishes last year......... no comparison

[Nico]

That's midget Mike's thoughts, but they probably won't be much different to the rest of them. The 2006 preview liftout is due soon. Then we will get a good overall view of what the "experts"
say.

My tip is Gary "I don't watch the replays" Lyon, Daryl Timms, Scott Gullan (better off commenting on athletics) and John Anderson will all pot us and leave us out of the 8. The latter will have Geelong winning the flag, again.

Ando really is a shocker. He hates us and last year had both Collingwood and Essendon in the 8 and Adelaide to win the spoon.He is our litmus tesy. If he pots us we are in for a good season.

[Schneiderman]

A number of things to point out about some of those comments:

1. We actually DID have a few big wins, including the Lions. Not only that, but our big wins (and big scores) came at the end of the season. This gave us plenty of momentum into the finals. Compare that with St Kilda's, Kanga's and WCE's limping efforts at the end.
2. We didn't get flogged when we lost. Well at least not after the halfway mark of the season. This shows a committment and fighting spirit that is far more important IMO than the blouted self-importance that comes from an exaggerated win. St Kilda is the king of the 'ass-whooping', yet they struggle in the big games (QF aside - thanks to Robert Harvey). Our fightbacks against Richmond and Adelaide when we could have chucked it in, not to mention the 'Nick Davis quarter' were psychological miilestones.
3. We can string together phenomenal quarters when we want to. Sure as supporters we'd just love to see our team play like that all the time, but I believe Roos deliberately tries to limit its use to keep its shock value up. The four clear examples of the sudden attack were the Geelong 2nd qtr, the Brisbane last qtr, the Richmond 4th qtr and the PF last qtr. When that sort of play hits a team out of the blue, when all week they have been training for the 'ugly lockdown' tactics, it has double the value.

I reckon we'll finish top 4, and hopefully 2nd. But if we finish 5th or 6th we can still win it considering our experience, skilled player mix, and mental strength.

At least this sort of 'write off' will keep the boys hungry for more. Here's to the 'Bloods spirit' become more reknown for fight than the 'Shinboner spirit'.

[punter257]

can't argue with that Schneiderman

[robbieando]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
A number of things to point out about some of those comments:

Good post there, however I feel like adding some of my own pointers to them

1. We actually DID have a few big wins, including the Lions. Not only that, but our big wins (and big scores) came at the end of the season. This gave us plenty of momentum into the finals. Compare that with St Kilda's, Kanga's and WCE's limping efforts at the end.

Very good point, we were flying come September thanks to a good last 8 weeks to the season where we managed to thrash Brisbane, Kangaroos and Hawthorn in the last three weeks of the season, beat Geelong and West Coast at home, lost though our own undoing in Adelaide and beat the Demons and Essendon at Telstra Dome to really kick start at title run and serve notice to the Football world we meant business. In fact the Essendon win was when the media really started using the P word when talking about us. As for the other clubs well, each had its own undoing at some point in that period which we didn't have.

2. We didn't get flogged when we lost. Well at least not after the halfway mark of the season.

True, plus I think the only real "trashing" was the West Coast game in Round 6 when we had Willo, Ball and Jolly out of the side and LRT and Goodes in the ruck.

This shows a committment and fighting spirit that is far more important IMO than the blouted self-importance that comes from an exaggerated win.

I wouldn't say that. I would say that we didn't get trashed much because of our style of play failed to allow trashings to take place, hense if we lost it was always some sort of face saving aspect to it.

St Kilda is the king of the 'ass-whooping', yet they struggle in the big games (QF aside - thanks to Robert Harvey).

That is an unfair call on St Kilda. For one of the big games they have lost the past two seasons only the PF against us stands out as a "lost chance". They have their passion and nearly won a PF away from home, won a QF away from home and nearly beat Freo in Perth when the umpiring and injuries they copped that should of put them well and truelly out of the contest.

3. We can string together phenomenal quarters when we want to. Sure as supporters we'd just love to see our team play like that all the time, but I believe Roos deliberately tries to limit its use to keep its shock value up. The four clear examples of the sudden attack were the Geelong 2nd qtr, the Brisbane last qtr, the Richmond 4th qtr and the PF last qtr. When that sort of play hits a team out of the blue, when all week they have been training for the 'ugly lockdown' tactics, it has double the value.

Yes they may be of value but as we saw against Richmond if you let a them get too far ahead of you it can nearly kill. We were 3 seconds away from losing against Geelong, and a free kick call going against us in Brisbane. All in all, having the ability in reserve is a good thing, but we should try and not get ourselves in the position to rely on that ability late in matches

I reckon we'll finish top 4, and hopefully 2nd. But if we finish 5th or 6th we can still win it considering our experience, skilled player mix, and mental strength.

We can finish anywhere from 1st to 16th thanks to the nature of this great competition. However like you I think Top 4 is within our capabilites.