Swans snare bargain late draft picks

[Legs Akimbo]

Originally posted by Snowy
I've followed his predictions/assessments over a number of years and he's had mixed success, though sometimes he's been adamant X will be a dud and he's turned out that way. They did an article in The Age some years back on him and he was portrayed as an enthusiastic follower of junior football who watches as many matches as he can and tabulates all his results on computer. He designs computer software and I believe has supplied some clubs with programs which help with recording and assimilating all their recruiting information. I also believe (have heard unofficially), that he was involved with the Roos and Demons at some stage but don't think he's doing any 'official' spotting at the moment. I know he did court clubs though. Interesting in the year of the 'superdraft' 2001, he nominated Luke Hodge as his preferred #1.

Good comments all Snowy. I like playing devil's advocate, so I continue to build my case against the accused by elaborating on some of the points you raise...

1. If he cannot quantify his predictions they are not testable or verifiable and therefore are no value. He should nominate the number of games players will play so we can measure his success post hoc.

3. If he is better than chance, why isn't he on a club payroll instead of publishing his thoughts for the teenagers on Big Footy

4. He barracks for Collingwood.

QED - I rest my case.

[liz]

Originally posted by Legs Akimbo
Good comments all Snowy. I like playing devil's advocate, so I continue to build my case against the accused by elaborating on some of the points you raise...

1. If he cannot quantify his predictions they are not testable or verifiable and therefore are no value. He should nominate the number of games players will play so we can measure his success post hoc.

3. If he is better than chance, why isn't he on a club payroll instead of publishing his thoughts for the teenagers on Big Footy


QED - I rest my case.

I'm not sure of the relevance of the number of games that he watches. Surely the test of whether his "predictions" are worth anything is to look back a few years and see how many "hits" and how many "misses" he has.

If you go over to Hotrod's board - which is the primary site on which he chooses to publish his stuff - you will see that he has republished his summary predictions for each of the years 2001-2004 so that readers can see how many he got right and how many wrong (with the qualification that it is still early days for many of these youngsters).

Wiseby has never shied away from scrutiny over his track record. Nor has he ever claimed to be infallible.

When assessing his "success rate" though, you have to compare it with the track record of club recruiters rather than against an expectation that he will be 100% correct.

Everyone is entitled to ignore Wiseby's stuff or read it if they get something out of it. Everyone is entitled to be sceptical if they choose. He doesn't force it on anyone. I don't understand why those who choose not to place any credance at all on his thoughts like to diss him. (Equally as daft are those who choose to lap up every word of his as if it is an absolute prediction and claim superstardom of their club's yet-to-play draftees based on one man's opinion.)

[Legs Akimbo]

I don't understand why those who choose not to place any credance at all on his thoughts like to diss him. (Equally as daft are those who choose to lap up every word of his as if it is an absolute prediction and claim superstardom of their club's yet-to-play draftees based on one man's opinion.)

Because it is a slow day at work and he is a soft target. What is 'Hotrod board's URL'

[tez]

As has been stated it is only his opinion. A relative who
knows him and has played against him says he is very,
very dedicated and has the talent to go with it.

Monty copped a lot of critiscm a season ago and had to work
at his game to reach the level that he has.

A bit too early to be expressing this type of opinion.

[cruiser]

Was Brabazon the kid who had a good game, or at least a good last quarter, against the Roos in Canberra (NAB 1st round)?

[Pommie Swannie]

Originally posted by cruiser
Was Brabazon the kid who had a good game, or at least a good last quarter, against the Roos in Canberra (NAB 1st round)?

From memory, yes ... but then as has been mentioned before, a lot of the new kids looked very similar !!

[Jeffers1984]

Originally posted by cruiser
Was Brabazon the kid who had a good game, or at least a good last quarter, against the Roos in Canberra (NAB 1st round)?

Yep. He's the one.

[dimelb]

Looks like Brett Whitely.