Yet to play a top 8 side

[dimelb]

Re: Re: Re: Yet to play a top 8 side

Originally posted by ROK Lobster
What should I do with my BHP shares.

Brisbane Hawthorn Port? Hold.

[originalswan]

I'd suggest you buy some Swans stock (on the cheap) from the proceeds of your sale of Western Bulldogs stock. Take your profits on the Doggies and run - They won't be paying any dividends this year!!!

[SimonH]

While Swans 2006 premiership stock might have been a 'sell' in late September 2005, it's so undervalued that it's a 'buy' now for everyone but the gravest pessimist.

Thirty-four dollars (that's the return for one dollar, not five), in a relatively even 16-team competition, where I can give you a stone-cold bet-my-life-on-it guarantee that 7 teams will not win the premiership this year.

If you have any residual doubt that this is a gross undervalue, Fremantle and Hawthorn (both $26) are shorter to win the premiershp than the Swans! Fremantle and Hawthorn are, of course, among the 'steal my money, burn my car, drink all my liquor from an old fruit jar' teams that I can personally guarantee will not win the 2006 premiership. 26:1 would be about right for them to make the preliminary final.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
There's this myth that Brisbane dominated the competition for the three years of their premiership. They didn't - Port Adelaide did. The Lions dominated the finals (starting from a pretty good position).

Well the Lions were also awesome in those four years during H&A. Port lost 19 H&A games, Brisbane lost 23.

Last year the Swans did manage to find something special. It may be unlikely that they can do it again this year. But I think the slow start is partly deliberate by the fitness staff. What worries me is that the Swans planned on building towards the end of the season. Good idea. I also think that Roos hadn't factored in the lack of motivation and the big-headedness that the team would bring to this season. If they had been trying, they would have at least one more win by now.

I'm not sure how much they don't 'try' to win for fitness reasons.

In 2003 we started with a 1-3 record and then won 4 in a row.
In 2004 we started with a 3-1 record then lost 4 in a row.
In 2005, we started with a 2-1 record then lost 3 in a row and then won 3 in a row.

Not much of a pattern.

Is it such a good plan anyway? Last year we had to play first up in Perth. In 2004 we finished only 6th.

By the time they realise that they are going to have to go back to working if they want to go back to winning the season may have passed them by.

Yes, this is a major issue.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
Well truth be known, I cant remember a 'good' start under Roos.

Depends on how far 'start' extends to. We were 3-1 in 2004 and flying with 130%.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
The last season we had a decent start in was 2002. Look what happened that year.

What is "a decent start"? Our best was 1998 when we went 5-0 and then were 7-2 and then 13-6. We had two home finals and were one of the favourites that year.

[ScottH]

Re: Yet to play a top 8 side

Originally posted by ROK Lobster
Similar to last year I think, we are getting beaten by the poorer sides in the comp. Do the players rise for the bigger occassions? Are we just plain crap starters? Are we just having the biggest hangover ever?

The bombers were not out of the eight when we played them.

[NMWBloods]

Re: Re: Yet to play a top 8 side

Originally posted by ScottH
The bombers were not out of the eight when we played them.

They carry forward last year so yes they were...

[floppinab]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker

2005: 2-4 after 6 rounds (3 losses in a row rounds 2 to 4)
2004: 3-5 after 8 rounds (4 losses in a row rounds 5 to 8)
2003: 1-3 after 4 rounds (3 losses in a row rounds 2 to 4)

Yep but lose this week and that would be our worst out of this lot and it would be very very hard to see us coming back from 1 - 4.

[Mike_B]

Originally posted by floppinab
Yep but lose this week and that would be our worst out of this lot and it would be very very hard to see us coming back from 1 - 4.

Agree. During On the Couch last night they basically tagged the Dees v Roos game as a virtual elimination final with the loser to be 1-4. So not too different for us really...

[hammo]

All the excuses in the world won't be able to hide the reality of 1-4. Its not the end of the world but would make a top 4 position (and a realistic shot at the flag) very hard.

My biggest concern is that the matches we've lost should have all been wins - Essendon & Port are teams on the decline and Melbourne are average but it was a home game.

[Guzzitza]

Round 1:
Beaten By Essendon

Round 2:
Beaten by Port Adelaide (Who were beaten by Kangaroos in Rd 1)
Essendon beaten by Lions

Round 3:
Beat Carlton (Who beat Melb Rd 1, and lost to Freo Rd 2.)
Essendon beaten by Bulldogs
Port Adelaide beaten by Fremantle

Round 4:
Beaten by Melbourne (Who lost to Carlton Rd 1., Bulldogs Rd 2., and Adelaide Rd. 3
Essendon beaten By Collingwood
Port defeat St Kilda
Carlton defeated by Hawthorn
So, we sort of look like this now....

Bulldogs > West Coast > Kangaroos > Collingwood > St Kilda Fremantle > Port Adelaide > Essendon > Melbourne > Sydney > Carlton

This isnt meant to be exact, its just a mild pattern that appears when you look at who has defeated who etc.

You sort of get the idea.. when you look at the single team we've defeated, their 1 win was against Melbourne (1 - 3), who we lost to. And the teams beating us, arent even consistently good, they arent top teams - they are in fact losing to the top teams... so where does that put us? At the moment, perhaps we are better than Carlton. Perhaps.

We need to wake up, have a Berrocca, whatever. Someone needs to start playing some football - and I'm hoping it maybe some our players will follow their lead.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
What is "a decent start"? Our best was 1998 when we went 5-0 and then were 7-2 and then 13-6. We had two home finals and were one of the favourites that year.

It's hard to quantify a qualitative statement, but I'll try.

There is a general trend in that at some point near the start of the season we're in the bottom half of the ladder with two more losses than wins (1-3, 2-4, 3-5) and we had lost three or four games in a row.

Our current situation is similar to this trend - we currently have a 1-3 record (although we haven't had our traditional three losses in a row).

I guess a decent start is where we are in the top half of the ladder throughout, rather than wandering around in the bottom half.

[undy]

Yet to play a top 8 side

or

None of the top 8 sides have played the reigning premiers yet.

...yes, that reads much more pleasantly - those flakey fools, at the top of the ladder through a fluke of the draw.