Rounds 7 to 15 - many tough games ahead

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  • Thunder Shaker
    Aut vincere aut mori
    • Apr 2004
    • 4266

    Rounds 7 to 15 - many tough games ahead

    We are currently sitting in 8th place on the ladder with a 3-3 record. This looks good on the surface, but the reality is we have not yet played a side in the top half of the ladder. Nor will we do so in round 7 because we play Richmond.

    Here is our draw for the next nine rounds. I have not seen so many 8-point games grouped so closely; with one exception these games are all 8-point games. We will have to be on our best games to win most of these.

    Round 7 - Richmond (a). Richmond are currently outside the eight on percentage, so this game is a danger game. Richmond were one of two teams we did not defeat last year.

    Round 8 - Western Bulldogs (a, at SCG). The Bulldogs have started the season well, but have lost their last two. They have won regularly at the SCG and they may cause us trouble again.

    Round 9 - Hawthorn (a). Hawthorn are in much better form this year and are well-placed to make the finals. Even when the Hawks have had poor seasons, the fixture of Hawthorn away has often resulted in a loss to them in recent years.

    Round 10 - Kangaroos (a, Manuka). Another danger game. Last year the Manuka fixture was the one that got away. The Kangaroos have a genuine home-ground advantage at that ground and they have beaten us a few times there. Given the Kangaroos' current position on the ladder, this is the only game listed that is currently not an 8-point game, but this could change by round 10.

    Round 11 - St Kilda (h). After four away games in a row, we meet the Saints at home. We should win this one if we play well because it's at the SCG, but the Saints are not to be underestimated. Last time the Saints travelled to Sydney was in round 11 2004 when they were undefeated after 10 rounds. That game defined the 2004 season for both clubs.

    Round 12 - Collingwood (h, Stadium Australia). Collingwood are looking ominous this year, and appear to be back to their best form of 2002 and 2003. When on their game like they are this year, they can beat us at this venue, as they did in 2003.

    Round 13 - Fremantle (h). Fremantle are much improved this year. Because it's at the SCG, we can beat them, but we cannot take this game lightly.

    Round 14 - Adelaide (h). Without a doubt, Adelaide are our bogey side. Our record against Adelaide is worse than that against any other club. Even at home we only have beaten them 5 times in 12 games. Of all the games, this one is one of the toughest.

    Round 15 - West Coast (a). This is the much-awaited Grand Final rematch. This game is at Subiaco, so expect the Eagles to play well in front of their adoring fans.

    The above may be mostly gloom and doom, but the bright side is in the last seven rounds all of the opposition are sides currently outside the top eight.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
  • JudesaGun
    On the Rookie List
    • Sep 2003
    • 554

    #2
    Be very happy with 5 or 6 wins and i think that's feasible. If we manage to win the rest, we would not want to drop more than 3 games in those against:West Coast, Adelaide, St Kilda, Collingwood and Bulldogs. That would set us up nicely for the rest of season.
    Sanford Wheeler 4 President!

    Comment

    • hammo
      Veterans List
      • Jul 2003
      • 5554

      #3
      Its fair to say we won't win all these games but apart from the West Coast away match i think we'll start favourites in all the others (therefore should win).

      While our form at the SCG this year is poor, we are lucky to be playing the likes of Freo and Adelaide there as wins at Subiaco and AAMI are very rare for Swans sides.

      It's not worth looking too far ahead in this competition though.
      "As everyone knows our style of football is defensive and unattractive, and as such I have completely forgotten how to mark or kick over the years" - Brett Kirk

      Comment

      • Mel
        Regular in the Side
        • Jul 2005
        • 883

        #4
        I remember a very similar thread about this time - or maybe a little later - last year. It would be great to get the same result.
        Life's not a spectator sport

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        • Thunder Shaker
          Aut vincere aut mori
          • Apr 2004
          • 4266

          #5
          Originally posted by Mel
          I remember a very similar thread about this time - or maybe a little later - last year. It would be great to get the same result.
          Were you thinking of this thread?
          "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

          Comment

          • Go Swannies
            Veterans List
            • Sep 2003
            • 5697

            #6
            Do I get credit for picking the trend correctly?

            Without Fooyhead I don't feel the need to post so frequently these days.

            Comment

            • Mel
              Regular in the Side
              • Jul 2005
              • 883

              #7
              Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
              Were you thinking of this thread?
              That's the one. I was just too lazy to look for it. Thanks TS.
              Life's not a spectator sport

              Comment

              • Jeffers1984
                Veterans List
                • Jan 2003
                • 4564

                #8
                I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead. I remember last year we had a similar tough road but we got through it and pretty much shaped the finals hardness we accquired.

                Pretty much the same policy again. There is no point in making the finals if we don't hit these following games head on.
                Official Driver Of The "Who Gives A @@@@ As The Player Will Get Delisted Anyway" Bandwagon.

                Comment

                • giant
                  Veterans List
                  • Mar 2005
                  • 4731

                  #9
                  Good work TS.

                  I think if we're dinkum in 2006 then 6/9 is the pass mark here. 7/9 would be great and 8 or 9 would really set us up for top 4 finish after a poor start.

                  Less than 6/9 (leaving us at best 8&7 at Rd 15) wouldn't be the end of us in what looks like another open year but it would make it very tuff to replicate 2005 heroics.

                  Comment

                  • Destructive
                    Football Terrorist
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 976

                    #10
                    It is indeed a tough road ahead, but we should beat Richmond next week.
                    The Destructive Dan Experience - Featuring Teal.
                    Add me on Facebook - Danny Pinsuti (Except Suzi Olsen and her split personalities.)
                    238 AFL Games.

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                    • Go Swannies
                      Veterans List
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 5697

                      #11
                      I'm going by the simplistic model that we are one game ahead of where we were this time last year - and we played some really crap games between R7-10.

                      Last year, the miracle was how strongly we finished the H&A season - and then played just as hard through the finals. And had minimal injuries. This year, we have a game up our sleeve already and I'm hoping we won't have the downturn over the next four games. That means we can afford to mess up a few games, or have some injuries, on the run home.

                      I also think this season will stay open. I doubt that the Crows and Eagles will fall out of the top 4. But I think it's very open for the other two spots. We must aim for one of those to be in with a chance. Not unlikely at this stage.

                      I'm expecting some of the other teams in the eight to have some setbacks along the way. Adelaide managed to play hard all year but this year they have come out of the blocks hard and may fade a bit (as the Eagles did last year - with a less taxing game plan). The Pies may maintain their intensity and good run without injuries but I doubt it. The young bodies of the Doggies and Hawks are likely to be tiring over the next 16 weeks. Freo (and the Dees and Tigers - on the same points as the Swans) don't have a good record of consistency. The Cats may regain form but it will soon be too late.

                      Then there's St Kilda. I know they have lots of talent but I have no faith in the coach - and less in the fitness staff.

                      It is still so early in the season. But I think the most likely runners for the flag are the Crows, Eagles and Swans, with the Pies in the running if they do as well over the next 6 weeks as they have in the past 6.

                      Of course, this is presuming the Swans continue to improve as they have so far this season. If they win the next four games and throw the switch back to show biz as they did in the first few rounds, they'll be battling with the Cats and Tigers for a low place inside the eight.

                      Comment

                      • goswannie14
                        Leadership Group
                        • Sep 2005
                        • 11166

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Go Swannies
                        Do I get credit for picking the trend correctly?

                        Without Fooyhead I don't feel the need to post so frequently these days.
                        Was he really as much of a dipstick as that thread indicates?
                        Does God believe in Atheists?

                        Comment

                        • Go Swannies
                          Veterans List
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5697

                          #13
                          Originally posted by goswannie14
                          Was he really as much of a dipstick as that thread indicates?
                          That was him at his least provocative, most rational best.

                          Comment

                          • goswannie14
                            Leadership Group
                            • Sep 2005
                            • 11166

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Go Swannies
                            That was him at his least provocative, most rational best.
                            Probably just as well I wasn't around when he was then.....Mind you Puckapunyal is always looking for new targets for the artillery to shot at.
                            Does God believe in Atheists?

                            Comment

                            • Thunder Shaker
                              Aut vincere aut mori
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 4266

                              #15
                              It was interesting reading through both threads and identifying the trends.

                              There are common features between this year and last and both threads identify them beautifully when read together.

                              * We are sitting in the top eight.
                              * We are at a crucial stage of the season.
                              * We had not won a game against another side in the top eight.
                              * We have a tricky game coming up against lowly opposition that have won three in a row.
                              * We then have a long stretch of difficult games.

                              My motives for creating both threads were to warn of difficult games ahead and not to get hopes up. Last year, last year it worked a treat.

                              This year could well be different. As the reigning premiers (it still sounds SO GOOD saying that!), we are the hunted, and we may lose one or two games as the opposition play with increased intensity.

                              Now my predictions.

                              The remaining part of the home and away season can be divided into two halves: rounds 7 to 15, and rounds 16 to 22. The first half holds the tough games, and the second half hold the easier games.

                              Rounds 7 to 15: We should win five or six out of nine. Eagles in Perth and Adelaide anywhere are the toughest games. We will probably lose them both. Dangerous games are Collingwood, Hawthorn, Dockers, Dogs. We should win two to four of all those if we play well. Let's say three wins. Saints, Tigers and Roos are easier games and we should win most or all of those.
                              We should win about six of nine.

                              Rounds 16 to 22: These games are easier but nevertheless contain danger games as well. We won't win all of them because Geelong away is always a tough game. Let's say five wins in the last seven games.

                              Conclusion: We should finish the season with 14 wins and eight losses. Not good enough for a top-four finish, but should get us into fifth or sixth position. We could finish with as few as ten wins and as many as 16.
                              "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

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