2025 List Management

[KSAS]

Future picks for Sydney as they currently stand (first four rounds):

2026

Second-round pick
Third-round pick (Carlton)
Third-round pick (Collingwood)
Fourth-round pick (Hawthorn)

2027

Second-round pick
Second-round pick (Carlton)
Third-round pick
Fourth-round pick

Yes, the Curnow trade cleaned out three first-round picks, but some picks came back as well. The draft hand for 2027 would look fairly solid if Sydney finishes several places higher on the ladder than Carlton in 2027.

Gold Coast is worse off next year. After matching several Academy players in the first round of this year's draft, they have cleaned out all the picks they've been rolling into future drafts since about 2019 and their pick cupboard is bare. Their first three picks next year are: 2026 fourth-round pick, 2026 fifth-round pick, 2026 fifth-round pick (tied to Richmond).
7
Gold Coast and Sydney are the two clubs without a first-round pick in next year's draft.

Thanks TS for this snapshot.

Thought it was a bit unders that we only got a 3rd round upgrade for Buller having to give a 4th round back to the Pies, but overall thought we' ve done well to limit the damage in securing Curnow.

With that hand, it still gives us the flexibity to either trade back into R1 or match bids on any future Academy prospects, which of course depends on alot of variables between now & then.

I've heard the GC Academy prospects for the next 2 years are bare, hence why they went all chips in this year in matching bids. They probably have so many young emerging talent on their list, without the go home factor, that they can afford to miss earlly round picks for the next 2 years. Thought they played it smart.

[Thunder Shaker]

Just read yesterday that if they knew, Its a BIG if, that King was going to go at pick 49, they would have been able to make a bid for Carmicheal.

If the bid had been matched for Carmichael, IMO it is likely that another club would have made a bid on King well before pick 49.

After the Carmichael bid was not matched, the points were left intact for King. After King wasn't bid on before pick 35, Sydney's having the points to match any bid after that would have discouraged frivolous bids.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I know very little but backing Javen in at pick 35 looks quite compelling actually..............despite the perceived punter loss perspective of Charmichael

Javen is a bit of a bull and probably more needed in our list evolution ........... ie not sure if Charmicheal could provide the "runway" as the NFL coaches talk about vs Jevan

Javen could genuinely play HFF, Mids and or HBF

Charmichael had the play in front footy at HBF

In my experience playing and watching the players in the middle that arc and play 360 degree are a rare commodity.............Javen showed that he can play start stop 360 but equally a little hit and miss

Chad when i saw hi highlights would be a rowbottom type tagging role but Chad had blown the gasket in his ability to take the game on...............which us punters didnt see in his explosive speed off the mark and then the directive to take it on

For me i see that in Javen which is a hard thing to trade and or draft and extremely valuable to a peak performing team.

The reason so valuable theese types of explosive players is simple.......... it is bloody hard to defend against and it brings your teeam into the game because when an explosive player takes off you get on your bike cause anything could happen

thats the truth and that opens up games either way !

[BFG]

I have done some research into our draft points position at the time of the surprisingly early bid on Carmichael. It is easy to see why we didn't match.

GWS caused us seismic problems by bidding very early on Kyle at pick 14 wiping out more than half our points.

At the time of the also very early bid by the Dogs at pick 21, to match we needed 649 points. We held picks 35, 42, 51 and 63 which total just 597 points.

This would mean we'd have 52 points deficit off our first pick in 2026. It would also have wiped out 35, 42 & 51 leaving us just pick 63 worth no points. With GCS mopping up every pick they could find, there was no way we could trade a 2026 pick into this draft.

I've got no doubt once we were bereft of points an opportunistic bid would have materialised for King much earlier than where we eventually matched, because other clubs couldn't be bothered bidding once we safely held the requisite points to match.

So matching the Dogs at pick 21 we would have had a draft of just Kyle & Carmichael.

Not matching we have a draft haul of Kyle, Phillipou, Cootee and King. So it's Carmichael vs Phillipou, Cootee and King

For those lamenting (and even blaming the club), I think there's a quantum difference in the two hands, albeit yet to be played out.

The new points scale introduced this year, six years too late! is proving to be much tougher to match multiple high picks. GC only did it by stockpiling picks last year and gutting their 2026 draft hand, a one off possibility with the new points scale. Let's see how Carlton go matching Cody Walker next year if they finish in the top half of the table.

[goswannies]

I have done some research into our draft points position at the time of the surprisingly early bid on Carmichael. It is easy to see why we didn't match.

GWS caused us seismic problems by bidding very early on Kyle at pick 14 wiping out more than half our points.

At the time of the also very early bid by the Dogs at pick 21, to match we needed 649 points. We held picks 35, 42, 51 and 63 which total just 597 points.

This would mean we'd have 52 points deficit off our first pick in 2026. It would also have wiped out 35, 42 & 51 leaving us just pick 63 worth no points. With GCS mopping up every pick they could find, there was no way we could trade a 2026 pick into this draft.

I've got no doubt once we were bereft of points an opportunistic bid would have materialised for King much earlier than where we eventually matched, because other clubs couldn't be bothered bidding once we safely held the requisite points to match.

So matching the Dogs at pick 21 we would have had a draft of just Kyle & Carmichael.

Not matching we have a draft haul of Kyle, Phillipou, Cootee and King. So it's Carmichael vs Phillipou, Cootee and King

For those lamenting (and even blaming the club), I think there's a quantum difference in the two hands, albeit yet to be played out.

The new points scale introduced this year, six years too late! is proving to be much tougher to match multiple high picks. GC only did it by stockpiling picks last year and gutting their 2026 draft hand, a one off possibility with the new points scale. Let's see how Carlton go matching Cody Walker next year if they finish in the top half of the table.

Very helpful analysis, thank you

[Thunder Shaker]

I have done some research into our draft points position at the time of the surprisingly early bid on Carmichael. It is easy to see why we didn't match.

GWS caused us seismic problems by bidding very early on Kyle at pick 14 wiping out more than half our points.

At the time of the also very early bid by the Dogs at pick 21, to match we needed 649 points. We held picks 35, 42, 51 and 63 which total just 597 points.

This would mean we'd have 52 points deficit off our first pick in 2026. It would also have wiped out 35, 42 & 51 leaving us just pick 63 worth no points. With GCS mopping up every pick they could find, there was no way we could trade a 2026 pick into this draft.

I've got no doubt once we were bereft of points an opportunistic bid would have materialised for King much earlier than where we eventually matched, because other clubs couldn't be bothered bidding once we safely held the requisite points to match.

So matching the Dogs at pick 21 we would have had a draft of just Kyle & Carmichael.

Not matching we have a draft haul of Kyle, Phillipou, Cootee and King. So it's Carmichael vs Phillipou, Cootee and King

For those lamenting (and even blaming the club), I think there's a quantum difference in the two hands, albeit yet to be played out.

The new points scale introduced this year, six years too late! is proving to be much tougher to match multiple high picks. GC only did it by stockpiling picks last year and gutting their 2026 draft hand, a one off possibility with the new points scale. Let's see how Carlton go matching Cody Walker next year if they finish in the top half of the table.

A good analysis.

On Gold Coast's picks, they have been trading for future picks since receiving their assistance package. This year they cashed in that investment. Gold Coast is going to be formidable in three or four years once their newest players gain experience.

There is also the possibility that Carmichael chooses to be traded "home", which will no doubt annoy a few Victorian clubs with short and selective memories. It would be interesting seeing the list of players the five* northern clubs have lost to "go home" trades since 1982.

* Including the Brisbane Bears.

[Thunder Shaker]

Additional notes: the Giants were so keen to sabotage the Swans' points holding that they traded away their 2026 second-round pick to do so.

It's also of interest that Hawthorn was directly involved in the trade shenanigans on both occasions.

[stellation]

Frustrating as it was, GWS were rumoured as being interested in Kyle for a while. Their interest in picking him up was probably legit and not exclusively Machiavellian.

[KSAS]

Frustrating as it was, GWS were rumoured as being interested in Kyle for a while. Their interest in picking him up was probably legit and not exclusively Machiavellian.

The fact is it wasn't necessary for them to trade up to pick 14 to bid on him. Could've done so at Pick 16. It was done deliberately to drain us of more points, which Bulldogs took advantage of with Carmichael at pick 21, knowing we'd likely not match as it would've wiped our remaining picks and go into points deficit next year.

GWS went to the trouble in sacrificing their R2 next year to do so (to Hawrhorn), so i hope it comes back to bite them on the bum!

[KSAS]

[QUOTE=BFG;n1253645]I have done some research into our draft points position at the time of the surprisingly early bid on Carmichael. It is easy to see why we didn't match.

GWS caused us seismic problems by bidding very early on Kyle at pick 14 wiping out more than half our points.

At the time of the also very early bid by the Dogs at pick 21, to match we needed 649 points. We held picks 35, 42, 51 and 63 which total just 597 points.

This would mean we'd have 52 points deficit off our first pick in 2026. It would also have wiped out 35, 42 & 51 leaving us just pick 63 worth no points. With GCS mopping up every pick they could find, there was no way we could trade a 2026 pick into this draft.

I've got no doubt once we were bereft of points an opportunistic bid would have materialised for King much earlier than where we eventually matched, because other clubs couldn't be bothered bidding once we safely held the requisite points to match.

So matching the Dogs at pick 21 we would have had a draft of just Kyle & Carmichael.

Not matching we have a draft haul of Kyle, Phillipou, Cootee and King. So it's Carmichael vs Phillipou, Cootee and King
/QUOTE]
This is the sort of info which was sadly missing from the Fox Footy coverage. They need to keep up with the increasing complexities of the draft and have the boffins that can do this sort of analysis, instead of the same olds. Good work BFG.

[Jimitron5000]

I like what the club has done with the trades and draft period. Obviously losing Hayward and Florent was a tough one, but swapping them (and some draft picks) for Curnow is a trade I am happy with. It gives our team a different look immediately.
As for the draft, we have gone heavy on the "high ceiling, low floor" types like King, Kyle, Phillipou and on the rookie list both Chamberlain and Heatherton. There is a lot of ability amongst that lot.
After the debacle that was the 2024 grand final, i couldn't get myself that enthused over last year but for 2026 it is a different story...bring it on!

[BRS328]

I like what the club has done with the trades and draft period. Obviously losing Hayward and Florent was a tough one, but swapping them (and some draft picks) for Curnow is a trade I am happy with. It gives our team a different look immediately.
As for the draft, we have gone heavy on the "high ceiling, low floor" types like King, Kyle, Phillipou and on the rookie list both Chamberlain and Heatherton. There is a lot of ability amongst that lot.
After the debacle that was the 2024 grand final, i couldn't get myself that enthused over last year but for 2026 it is a different story...bring it on!

And also remember they traded in Serong and Rosa who hopefully will have a short term impact

[Auntie.Gerald]

Yeah I think if u have King Curnow, Amartey and Macca up front on rotation with Heeney and Paps and Warner then Rosas helps ur crumb and finish with scoreboard pressure

that is a lot of leads that sort or cancels out the need of a leading Hayward

we have a stack of smalls emerging also for the forward line

at the back Ollie would have been over taken pretty quickly if not straight away

for me the balance of the squad if seriously improved when u take into account now and future stacking of talent

it’s shaping up very well for 2026 and beyond

[Roadrunner]

Yeah I think if u have King Curnow, Amartey and Macca up front on rotation with Heeney and Paps and Warner then Rosas helps ur crumb and finish with scoreboard pressure

that is a lot of leads that sort or cancels out the need of a leading Hayward

we have a stack of smalls emerging also for the forward line

at the back Ollie would have been over taken pretty quickly if not straight away

for me the balance of the squad if seriously improved when u take into account now and future stacking of talent

it’s shaping up very well for 2026 and beyond

Agreed Auntie. We really needed to strengthen our squad and revamp our forward strategy. Curnow will be a focus of course but if our talls can stay fit for most of the season, we will have plenty of options to hit the scoreboard. We also need to improve our marking at both ends and I think Coxy will have options he didn’t have this year, so we will then be able to evaluate his coaching ability. Personally, I think he will do a very good job!

[wolftone57]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...5900bc8acb81ca

interesting read

I think we were lucky to get him at that position in the draft. He sort of drifted. I think the clubs did see that confidence as arrogance. But we have had previous experience with Errol, who has the same sort of confidence.