Swans chat 2026 Season Prediction

[KSAS]

Happy New Year to all on RWO!

Barring injuries, i like to think we'd finish in the top 6 and give the flag a serious shake without the mental scars of our last 2 GF appearances. Worried we might be too Curnow focused initially, but hoping that will settle down as the season progresses. Other than Curnow, i predict Serong, Riak and Rosas to make significant Swans debuts. I also predict Philipou, Kyle, Cootee and Green to push for selection at some point. Logan to have breakout year. Cox being ruthless with team selections, with good player depth fighting for spots. No passengers.

Edit: Dattoli to kick his first goal in R0

[UUaswan]

We were 2 games clear on top after finishing the season off terribly 2 years ago

We have gained as a list since then and we have matured

If we arent thinking Top 4 we are nuts

[Dow]

We were 2 games clear on top after finishing the season off terribly 2 years ago

We have gained as a list since then and we have matured

If we arent thinking Top 4 we are nuts

I think our list has gone a little backwards, and few top sides have probably gone past us, so for me top 6 would be a fair pass mark

[crackedactor 01]

I think our list has gone a little backwards, and few top sides have probably gone past us, so for me top 6 would be a fair pass mark

I cannot see why you think our list has gone backwards.? I think we have been excellent in the draft selections with only the lost of Hayward. Curnow will be a big addition and if Logan and Amarty can stay fit we are a big chance for top four.

[dejavoodoo44]

Since KSAS has kindly opened a prediction thread, I thought I’d do the somewhat superficial depth analysis, that I’ve been meaning to do. It won’t be the more traditional depth chart, in that I'll be making no attempt to rank players as first choice, second choice, etc. It’s more throwing players into rough groups, to give some sort of idea where we might be blessed for choice and where we might run into problems.


The groups are key forwards, other forwards, inside mids, outside mids, rucks, key defenders and other defenders. Obviously, there’ll be plenty of overlap between groups. For instance, I’ve put Heeney as an inside mid, even though I expect him to spend plenty of time in the forward line. While I’ve put both Gulden and McInerney as outside mids, even though I expect both to spend some time at centre bounces*, because I think their primary roles will be to run into space on the flanks, rather than trying to win contested ball at the ruckmen’s feet. I’ll also be making brief comments at the end of each section. So, starting from the back.


Key Defenders.

Jai Serong, Riak Andrew, Will Edwards, Joel Hamling, Tom McCartin, Patrick Snell and Lewis Melican.
This is an area that looks pretty good to me, with the slight worry that our probable two first choice players, McCartin and Melican, can be a bit injury prone. However, I thought that Hamling played some good games when given a chance as a key defender, rather than a makeshift forward. While I think Andrew, Edwards and Snell all have the potential to be quality defenders, and hopefully the wraps on Serong are true.


Other Defenders.

Harry Cunningham, Sam Wicks, Nick Blakey, Ned Bowman, Dane Rampe, Riley Bice, Harry Kyle and Matt Roberts.
Cunningham and Wicks are a couple decent options for keeping the best opposition small forwards quiet. While it’s possibly worth pointing out, that the 196cm Blakey, is the main reason why I didn’t call this category “small and medium defenders”. I’ve put Bowman in defence, even though he’s listed on the Swans site as a medium forward, largely because he spent the back half of last season as a defender and Chris Keane in a recent interview, seemed to indicate that he’s likely to play in defence. Alternatively, I’ve put Mills in the midfield, even though the website has him as a defender. It just seems to me, that a fit Mills playing as a big bodied mid is the better option. Keane also said, that the plan for Kyle is to eventually turn him into a big bodied mid, but for the start at least, he’ll be running around as a half back flanker. At the other end of the time scale, it’ll be interesting to see if Rampe gets to play many more AFL games, or will he spend much of the year as a VFL mentor? And finally, it will be fairly important that both Blakey and Bice stay fit, otherwise we might lack a bit of rebounding flair? Although, you could probably rope McInerney or Campbell back into defence?


Rucks.

Brodie Grundy, Peter Ladhams and William Green.
With just three genuine rucks, we probably wouldn’t want too many injuries. Though if both Grundy and Ladhams went down, I suspect Green will have developed enough to handle promotion to the AFL. McLean and Amartey can also do a bit of ruck work, while Edwards was actually quite a good chop out in his academy days. I think Hetherton has also done a bit of rucking. If worse comes to worse, there’s usually a few competent ruckmen hoping to get picked up in the midseason draft.


Inside Mids.

Chad Warner, Taylor Adams, Isaac Heeney, James Rowbottom, Angus Sheldrick, Callum Mills, James Jordon, Billy Cootee and Caiden Cleary.
With Adams recently injuring his Achilles, I can’t see him playing too much AFL this year. The big bodies of Rowbottom, Mills and Jordon, plus the smaller but still hard at it, Sheldrick and Cleary, should be enough to ensure that we don’t get overpowered too often. Heeney and Warner give plenty of dynamism, which will be reinforced by small forwards and outside mids rotating through. Such as Papley, Dattoli, Gulden and McInerney. To me, it looks like a group that could do a lot of damage, in a small amount of time.


Outside Mids.

Jevan Phillipou, Errol Gulden, Justin McInerney, Corey Warner and Jake Lloyd.

Seems a touch light on for numbers, but it can be reinforced. Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Campbell spend a bit more time on the wing. While Bice and Blakey can venture out of defence, and inside mids can spend time as outside runners.


Key Forwards.

Hayden McLean, Logan McDonald, Charlie Curnow, Joel Amartey and Liam Hetherton.
Certainly a lot of talent there, and it will be interesting to see how often we play all four of McLean, McDonald, Curnow, and Amartey. Even though Errol’s been talking up “the four headed monster”, I can’t see it happening too often. Especially if the abolition of the substitute, means that we play two genuine rucks, rather than one and a chop out. Also, even though the Swans site has King and Chamberlain listed as key forwards, I’ve put them as other forwards. King is still quite wiry and is probably better suited to a forward flank role, or an outside mid. While in his final academy season, Chamberlain generally either played half forward flank or winger. Actually, if Chamberlain does play and thrive as a key forward, then you might hear a bit of muttering about draft manipulation.


Other Forwards.

Jesse Dattoli, Malcolm Rosas, Tom Papley, Braeden Campbell, Max King, Tom Hanily and Noah Chamberlain.
Looks like plenty of competition for small forward spots, while there doesn’t really seem to be a like for like replacement for Hayward. Perhaps Bowman will play forward, after all? Though of course, the forward line will be bolstered by the likes of Heeney and Warner taking a break from the middle. Anyway, it looks like we have the skills, to take advantage of anything that the talls don’t clunk.


So, all up, it looks like we’ve got plenty of class on every line. There’s also a sense, that there’s not many players who are likely to decline with age, but there are plenty of young players who should improve. Of course, any season can be derailed by injuries, but I am expecting to have a lot of fun watching the Swans this year.

*I'm mildly curious about whether the term “centre bounce” will still be used, now that the bounce has been abolished?

[BFG]

If you compare the list now compared to last season, there is more depth and more young excitement.

The coaching ranks have been strengthened considerably, Cox has had a full year to get settled in the big seat.

Predicting Jevan Phillipou to be a surprise packet and therefore a draft steal

If we have a good injury run, we're top 4.

[Dow]

I cannot see why you think our list has gone backwards.? I think we have been excellent in the draft selections with only the lost of Hayward. Curnow will be a big addition and if Logan and Amarty can stay fit we are a big chance for top four.

I feel the players we drafted are probably over hyped a little and are slow burns which for next season has us set back a little, loss of some experience players, team still coming to terms with new coach and the aging of some of our better players doesn’t help and finally the ruck rule changes doesn’t suit our No1 ruckmans style. It’s far from doom and gloom I just think when I weigh it all up barring injuries again we will improve but not quite to the top 4 level others think. - just my opinion of course

[SwanSand]

Adelaide, Brisbane, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS giants, Hawthorn, sydney, st Kilda, western bulldogs are genuine contenders for top 8. There may be another team that may surprise from the outside but probably unlikely.
bottom four - eagles, Richmond, north Melbourne, Melbourne.

the number of games that the above teams play against the predicted top 10.
Adelaide 3
brisbane 4
Fremantle 3
geelong 4
gold coast 5
gws 4
hawthorn 3
st kilda 3
swans 4
bulldogs 4

it is reasonably even.

number of games against expected bottom 4
Adelaide 1
brisbane 0
Fremantle 1
geelong 1
gold coast 1
gws 1
hawthorn 1
st kilda 1
swans 1
bulldogs 1

this is even too.

so I reckon it will eventually come down to the following in order of importance
1. Health and injuries to the best players and number of weeks lost collectively
2. tactical nous - we have gone through a lot of coaching change this year and it may be a good or not so good thing. Only time will tell. But we need to change the way we play in the middle.
3. Personnel - it looks like we have reasonable talent on our books. Things we lack - big midfielder (Sorry I don’t trust Mills to be able to do what the elite big midfielders do), tall defender (McCartin won’t play more than 20 games and so is with Melican hopefully not losing the games at the same time) and small forward - but I think we should be better this year than previous on this front.
4. desire and camaraderie given loss of Hayward, Oli and tap on shoulder for rowbottom. I think we should be fine on this front and the morale should be ok. But you never know.

my prediction
we should finish 3 or 4 on the ladder based on talent if the injuries are not too many.
But we will most likely underperform to that expectation by finishing 4 or 5.

[Thunder Shaker]

2024 - finished minor premiers. Faded late in the season. Lost Grand Final (the minor premiership curse).

2025 - finished 10th. Injuries to important players in the first half of the year led to several losses. After Gulden returned from injury, Sydney had 7 wins and 3 losses (Bulldogs, GWS, Geelong). Best win was away to reigning and eventual premiers Brisbane in round 22.

2026 - Will likely fall somewhere between 2024 (first) and 2025 (tenth) for final ladder position. Finals are likely with the top 10. At a minimum should finish top 6.

Biggest improvement has been to player depth by recruitment. The lack of depth in 2025 has been shown by the awful VFL season, finishing 18th out of 21. Recruitment highlights:
* Curnow: will take the opposition's best defender. This allows McDonald and Amartey to take lesser defenders. If fit, all three should play each week.
* Serong: A decent pick-up. He will improve our defence significantly.
* Phillipou: I agree that he could be significantly better than his draft position suggests. I hope to see him in the team early in the season.
* Cootee: I didn't know who he was when he was drafted but he could be another mature-age recruit making an impact similar to Bice.

I won't try selecting a "best 18". I'll leave that to others.

[wolftone57]

I think our list has gone a little backwards, and few top sides have probably gone past us, so for me top 6 would be a fair pass mark

You think the list has gone backward?

Ok here are the outs and ins


OUTS;

Fox
Mitchell
Kirk
Paton
Buller
Florent
Francis
Hayward
Leidler

Of those the only ones who would have been pushing for selection were;

Buller
Fox
Hayward
Florent

4 out of 9

INS;

Chamberlain
Cootee
Curnow
Hetherton
King
Kyle
Phillipou
Rosas
Serong

Of those these are the players who will be up for selection;

Cootee
Curnow
Phillipou
Rosas
Serong
Kyle

You could argue that Kyle and Phillipou are a stretch but I don't think so. In fact, I will go as far as to say Hetherton and King will push hard as well. Hetherton was seen as a very good prospect until he was injured. He was seen as top 20. But due to injury he wasn't seen in his mature year. I think we got a bargain there. He is that 197cm forward that might even grow a little. Buller would have been that but Hetherton is just as good, if not better than Buller.

The upshot is I think we are far stronger. Mitchell, Kirk, Paton, Francis, Leidler were not going to be really pushing for selection unless there was a major plague outbreak. Were-as all the new guts are likely to push for selection based on ability at the lower levels. Even Chamberlain. He played a couple of reserves games and didn't look out of place.