AFL ladder Predictor

[ScottH]

Originally posted by ugg
From my predictions, its hard to see us getting into the top 4. I would have to say we have to win all of our games for us to sneak in there on percentage. I see us coming 6th and playing the Bulldogs in the first week of the finals, which I think could be one matchup we would want to avoid.

Me too.

Even winning all games, others will have to fall the right way for us to cement a spot in the 4.

[swantastic]

Originally posted by ScottH
Me too.

Even winning all games, others will have to fall the right way for us to cement a spot in the 4.

We will end up second on percentage.Saints and Coll and Melb will drop games.

[robamiee]

This is where i had my ladder finishing.
I do believe we can finish in this position, though i think i would prefer to finish fourth as i would much rather play West Coast in the pre-lim @ Subi than the Crows @ AAMI for a spot in the Grand Final.
though io think we can beat West Coast in the First week of the Semi's
Predicted Ladder
# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Adelaide 22 18 4 0 2407 1652 72 145.7
2 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2231 1952 64 114.2
6 Sydney 22 15 7 0 2152 1759 60 122.3
4 St Kilda 22 15 7 0 2133 1784 60 119.5
5 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2373 2036 60 116.5
3 Melbourne 22 15 7 0 2215 1929 60 114.8
7 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2309 2092 56 110.3
8 Fremantle 22 14 8 0 2030 2040 56 99.5

10 Richmond 22 11 11 0 1857 2207 44 84.1
9 Geelong 22 9 13 0 2027 2037 36 99.5
11 Bris Lions 22 8 14 0 2015 2207 32 91.3
13 Kangaroos 22 7 15 0 1873 2193 28 85.4
12 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 1924 2218 24 86.7
14 Hawthorn 22 6 16 0 1828 2259 24 80.9
15 Essendon 22 3 18 1 1987 2435 14 81.6
16 Carlton 22 3 18 1 1803 2364 14 76.2

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AFL Ladder
# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Adelaide 22 18 4 0 2407 1652 72 145.7
2 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2231 1952 64 114.2
6 Sydney 22 15 7 0 2152 1759 60 122.3
4 St Kilda 22 15 7 0 2133 1784 60 119.5
5 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2373 2036 60 116.5
3 Melbourne 22 15 7 0 2215 1929 60 114.8
7 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2309 2092 56 110.3
8 Fremantle 22 14 8 0 2030 2040 56 99.5

10 Richmond 22 11 11 0 1857 2207 44 84.1
9 Geelong 22 9 13 0 2027 2037 36 99.5
11 Bris Lions 22 8 14 0 2015 2207 32 91.3
13 Kangaroos 22 7 15 0 1873 2193 28 85.4
12 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 1924 2218 24 86.7
14 Hawthorn 22 6 16 0 1828 2259 24 80.9
15 Essendon 22 3 18 1 1987 2435 14 81.6
16 Carlton 22 3 18 1 1803 2364 14 76.2

[RogueSwan]

Originally posted by robamiee
though io think we can beat West Coast in the First week of the Semi's

but can we beat the umpires?

[goswannie14]

Originally posted by RogueSwan
but can we beat the umpires?

We haven't been able to the last 2 games we have played there!

[Swanner]

Probs even if we win

I have just gone through and selected us to win all remaing games. If Adelaide drop a couple to Collingwood and Melbourne ( not impossible) we would still finish SIXTH.

Those losses to Collingwood and St Kilda at home have really cost us.

[Sanecow]

This is strange and highly unexpected but I got some of my predictions wrong this weekend.

[RogueSwan]

Re: Probs even if we win

Originally posted by Swanner
I have just gone through and selected us to win all remaing games. If Adelaide drop a couple to Collingwood and Melbourne ( not impossible) we would still finish SIXTH.

Those losses to Collingwood and St Kilda at home have really cost us.

I couldn't realistically,IMO, get us to finish in the top 4. I really hope the Aints and Wobbles lose momentum, that is probably the only way we will get top 4.

[SimonH]

While it is technically possible for Sydney to win all remaining games and not go top 4, I'm quite sure it won't happen. It is technically possible for Adelaide to miss the top 4, too. If we go 15-7, we're in.

However, a few weeks back we were 50:50 to make the top 4 if we went 14-8. Now the chances are significantly lower following some unfortunate results, but there is still some chance, primarily relying on one of the following two things happening:
a) Collingwood stuffing up one of their 4 should-win games, provided we have better percentage than them; or
b) the one game we drop not being Melbourne, and Melbourne messing up one more time as well.

The candidates to stuff us up (apart from the main candidate, the Sydney Swans):

Bulldogs: Nope. Vastly inferior percentage to us means they'd have to win every game to be a realistic shot. Several easy games offset by Adelaide (in Melbourne) and St Kilda under the roof. Might win one of those, but extremely unlikely to win both.

Collingwood: In front of a ravenous home crowd desperate for atonement, the Woods would need at least a 40 point start against Adelaide this w/e for it to be an even contest. However, the fact that Port have gone to poo (and no-one can trust the Roos to turn up week-in, week-out) means that despite a likely loss this week, the Woods have the chance to waltz to 15 wins without having to play terribly good footy.

St Kilda: Not a huge concern, for mine. Don't have a single walk-up-start-win game. Their best is still very good, but they haven't been playing consistently. If they can win 4 out of 5 of West Coast (albeit in roofsville), Geelong, Freo in Perth, the Dogs and Brisbane at the Gabba, they'll well and truly deserve it.

Melbourne: Playing great footy, and so asking them to lose 3 out of their last 5 is a bit much. However, their percentage makes them potentially vulnerable, and they finish with Adelaide in Adelaide. Basically, we have to beat them, then hope they lose to one of Geelong in Geelong or (ahem) the Roos.

Weagles: The big win over Adelaide hurt us; because on some calculations (and on the very scratchy form they were showing) they were a chance to drop out of the 4 previously. Now that's a fabulously remote chance which would require them to lose interest completely. The Roos at home, the Gabba where they have an outstanding record, and Richmond, are all games that they would have to try to lose. I think we have to write them off and hope that they continue their good form this week against St Kilda.

[sydneyswans1989]

I worked that we can lose to melbourne but have to bounce back the next week to knock the cats off & still finsh in top 4 considering the saints lose to freo at subi & win some of thier matches under 20 points. We sneak in by % which is likely to happen since we have a very healthy % which can be boosted this week against the dons.

[bandwagon]

Originally posted by sydneyswans1989
.... we have a very healthy % which can be boosted this week against the dons.

Aaarrgh! I wish people wouldn't post this stuff.... Did you see both matches this weekend? I'll be happy with the 4 points.

[msb]

Originally posted by bandwagon
Aaarrgh! I wish people wouldn't post this stuff.... Did you see both matches this weekend? I'll be happy with the 4 points.

Yes it is annoying......people are worried about making top 4, syd havent even secured a spot in the 8 yet! I know it is likely they will make the 8 but it isnt for certain, neither is the game against ess this week.

[sydneyswans1989]

Originally posted by msb
Yes it is annoying......people are worried about making top 4, syd havent even secured a spot in the 8 yet! I know it is likely they will make the 8 but it isnt for certain, neither is the game against ess this week.

We are a good side, good sides beat teams like essendon, carlton & brisbane.

I sense your worried about essedon this weekend because of thier little shootout they had with the lions. Blind me, have some confidence my friend.

[yoshi]

we will finish 5th, behind collingwood

[laughingnome]

What's St Kilda doing up there? They're just going to choke up like a magpie come finals time anyway

Just looking at the week ahead - it is safe to presume both Collingwood and St. Kilda lose their matches this round. A win against Essendon puts us ahead of Collingwood and maybe the Saints (its all in percentage - this is why accuracy counts Kirky!) and into the 4. I'm going to have to say that the top three are out of range though, a two game gap with 5 to go seems a bit much.

Just keep winning

Just keep winning